Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Chantal continues eastbound in the Atlantic. Now closely watching a new area of Interest near the Bahamas with 20% odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 39 (Barry) , Major: 315 (Michael) Florida - Any: 315 (Michael) Major: 315 (Michael)
39.8N 49.1W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
E at 20 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic
      #96677 - Sun Aug 28 2016 05:26 AM

1:55 PM EDT Update 31 August 2016
Recon flying through TD NINE have found an abundance of tropical storm force winds, and the cyclone has been named, Hermine, the eighth named cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


8:45 PM EDT Update 30 August 2016
In Florida, even though NINE is "only" a Tropical Depression, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line.

"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. "

The fact that a Hurricane Watch has been issued while this tropical cyclone does not yet even have a name is indeed noteworthy, and should be a bell ringer that there is considerable concern with the potential for NINE to become a serious system.

Meanwhile, out in the central Pacific, Hawaii County is now under a Hurricane Warning. "A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

Dangerous Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are basically headed due west tonight, in Hawaii's direction.



9:45 AM EDT Update 29 August 2016
Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.

TD#9 is looking better defined this morning, it's window to develop is between today and Wednesday. Those along the Gulf coast particularly in the Big Bend and Florida either side of there should continue to watch it closely. No watches or warnings are up for there yet, and probably won't be until late tomorrow or Wednesday.

7:50PM EDT Update 28 August 2016
99L has become Tropical Depression #9, depending on if 8 gets named or not, the next name is Hermine, then Ian. The forecast track is highly uncertain and intensity and exact location are still very much fluid. It will likely have time to linger in the gulf for the next several days and potentially strengthen, there are a few negative factors such as shear that may keep it in check, but is countered by extremely warm water temperatures in the Gulf. Those along the west coast of Florida into the northern Gulf coast need to keep very close watch over the next few days.When the system enters the Gulf proper and clears the keys/Cuba we may have a better idea how and where the system will go, if the system moves. If it stalls out, it makes it a lot more difficult, the GFS keeps it into the Gulf until Friday, so that is very much a possibility. With a better center fix models tomorrow should have a slightly better idea of the future, but still probably not enough with the slow motion of the system predicted.

Be aware for potentially rapid changes in the forecast this week.

11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.

99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.

Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.



Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.

Original Update


The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.

Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.

Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).

It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.

Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.

Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.

Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.

Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge

Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#9 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

Tropical Depression 8) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#8 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Gaston Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gaston - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 92L (Far East Atlantic) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 92L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

Hawaii Storm Info

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Radar:


South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kauai, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

River/Stream Gauges in Hawaii

Hawaii Power Outage Map

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SouthGAwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Georgia
Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96682 - Sun Aug 28 2016 10:20 AM

As expected... From NHCs Special Tropical Weather Outlook.

Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: SouthGAwx]
      #96686 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:14 PM

Opened up the local contions thread for 99L and whatever it becomes since it's south of the Keys now and beginning to impact Florida to some degree. http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=96685&page=0&vc=#Post96685

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96689 - Sun Aug 28 2016 01:42 PM

The hurricane center upped the development chances for 99L back to 80% in the next 5 days and 60% in the next 48 hours, which seems reasonable since the storm will be entering the Gulf tomorrow. Right now it has a decent presentation on radar and could form into a depression tomorrow or Tuesday. The west coast of Florida and Northeast Gulf coast needs to continue to watch it very closely.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96690 - Sun Aug 28 2016 01:51 PM

Recon is en route to both 99L and TD#8 right now. The AF plane is over TD#8 now, the NOAA plane in still on its way, but not far to go.

99L is dropping a bit WSW and attempting to tighten, so it may be going for a closed low run.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96691 - Sun Aug 28 2016 02:09 PM

Recon finding some 37 knot winds along the west side of 99L already, I wonder if it can close off a circulation, though (Doubtful?). If it does may be a TD or TS very soon.

TD#8's getting all the convection it developed earlier sheared off toward the northwest.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96694 - Sun Aug 28 2016 04:26 PM

#99L Vort

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 20:18Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 20:00:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°44'N 81°41'W (23.7333N 81.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 57 statute miles (93 km) to the S (174°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 15kts (From the NE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 29°C (84°F)
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,000 feet
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight L


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96697 - Sun Aug 28 2016 07:57 PM

I step away for several hours, and we have another tropical depression. Still a boatload of uncertainty as to exact track and intensity, but it did surprise me a bit by developing today, I was thinking it wouldn't get going until it cleared the Florida Straits. Either way, expect rapid changes potentially. Hopefully models will now get a little more consistent with a developed circulation.

On the flipside, TD#8 has lost a lot of its convection and may die out.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96699 - Sun Aug 28 2016 08:19 PM

On radar and Satellite (and a few recon fixes) it appears TD#9 shifted a bit southwest toward Cuba, almost, but not quite onshore, that movement seems to have stopped now, but it opens up tomorrow for either getting stronger or just holding its own. Tonight it's getting a bit of northerly shear which will probably keep in in check part of tomorrow also.

The official forecast is a 40mph tropical storm tomorrow around 5PM, I'm curious how it will do tomorrow. Monday and Tuesday will be the days of figuring, wednesday we should have a good idea where it's going, Thursday is likely landfall day.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jdc0616
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Clermont, Florida
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96700 - Sun Aug 28 2016 09:07 PM

Why do you have to put that last sentence in telling us to be aware of the changes in this system? It's unnecessary. I'm sure everyone here already knows that when an unpredictable system like this one moves into the Gulf, it means trouble and deserves constant attention.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96702 - Sun Aug 28 2016 09:33 PM

Gaston is mostly stationary and looks very healthy for a hurricane, with a very solid eye.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: jdc0616]
      #96703 - Sun Aug 28 2016 10:03 PM

Quote:

Why do you have to put that last sentence in telling us to be aware of the changes in this system? It's unnecessary. I'm sure everyone here already knows that when an unpredictable system like this one moves into the Gulf, it means trouble and deserves constant attention.




Typically on the front page we reiterate things since events like this bring a lot of new people or random people just searching for basic info, it's also why we usually keep the model runs and speculation in the forecast lounge. If you've followed it for a while you know not to take a doomsday model runs seriously (or inversely one that shows it weak without consistency), but watch for the trends and persistence. Sometimes things are a bit more clear, slow moving systems, or generally disorganized ones tend not to be. It's never a guarantee, but confidence levels do change. And confidence with TD#9 is just lower than usual, unless you were following closely you may not know that.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: jdc0616]
      #96704 - Sun Aug 28 2016 10:10 PM

Newly formed tropical systems are especially uncertain both in intensity and track. Until a system has sustained tropical storm strength for at least 12 hours I generally throw out most forecasts - this is because a well defined closed system is needed for the model initialization.

Stating that rapid changes are possible is necessary to indicate the uncertainty in this forecast - and important to note as when any system approaches the US mainland this site gets a large uptick in visitors that are not weather geeks like many of us, and are not familiar with storms.

The risk is in dismissing a system "it's only forecast to be a tropical storm" when the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. Even the NHC states "the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system."

This storm has to traverse a high shear environment over the next day or so, which the ECMWF is indicating could end the system before it becomes a threat to land. If it survives, we could be looking at a tropical storm or hurricane at landfall (GFDL shows a tropical storm; HWRF shows a category 1 hurricane). It's over the Gulf, and that is always a good breeding ground for tropical systems.

Give it a 12-18 hours (tropical storm strength + 12 hours) and we should get a better idea of what the system will do.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #96709 - Mon Aug 29 2016 07:31 AM

Overnight TD#9 stayed a bit weak and rode westward just north of the Cuban coastline, this morning convection seems to be retiring near the center that has begun to move away from Cuba to the west. Today is likely it just trying to hold together, and I think it'll be successful, tomorrow if any significant strengthening happens, would be the day (into Wednesday) beyond that is when the pattern should shift enough for some definitive movement somewhere. Those along the northeastern Gulf and west coast of Florida should continue to watch it.

There is some more speculation in the Lounge about where/when.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96712 - Mon Aug 29 2016 09:08 AM

It appears that big, dry, shearing upper trough pushing eastward across the gulf is not going to give TD9 much of a window for strengthening.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96713 - Mon Aug 29 2016 09:32 AM

Looking at the visible satellite this morning it's seems a bit better organized than I expected this morning, although still mostly convection on the south side. It's in between the area in the NW gulf and the ULL off the South Carolina coastline, so it's in bit of a neutral zone shear wise. I suspect it'll hold its own today. I don't see the area in the trough doing much to TD#9 it won't help it develop, but I don't think it's a huge negative factor either. It's not close enough nor strong enough. The upper high developing over TD#9 is probably the most positive factor. NHC's forecast is probably good with a bit of waver on the intensity (either way) toward wed/thursday.

The depression is just in really mixed conditions, so I think it'll just limit strengthening, but not stop it.. It does appear healthier than I expected it would be this morning. Madeline over in the Central Pacific is also better than I expected this morning, we could have two systems landfalling at more or less the same time, Gulf and Hawaii.

Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96714 - Mon Aug 29 2016 01:35 PM

ASCAT pass of TD#9 has a pretty clear center now, it should be interesting to see what recon finds in a bit.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96716 - Mon Aug 29 2016 02:12 PM



It's a very busy day today for weather reconnaissance:

*In the Central Pacific, Powerful Cat 2 Hurricane Madeline
*In the East Pac, Major Hurricane Lester
*In the Gulf of Mexico, TD NINE
*Off the Carolinas, TD EIGHT


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
gvl, fl
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Gainesville, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96719 - Mon Aug 29 2016 04:23 PM

Here in Gainesville, we're starting to feel TD#9. Since about 2:00 p.m. there have been some fast-moving heavy showers with thunder, which is much different from the weather we've been having here lately. I see from the radar recording that it is most likely associated with TD#9. I'm a little surprised to see the effects so far north at this time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: gvl, fl]
      #96720 - Mon Aug 29 2016 05:05 PM

Tropical Storm or possibly hurricane watches may be up for part of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow, forecast is for a Tropical storm at landfall, and with things how they are currently, seems to be a good call.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96721 - Mon Aug 29 2016 05:15 PM

If 9 follows the forecast path, I would expect plenty of rainfall for Orlando being on the southeast side. We shall see.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: flranger]
      #96733 - Mon Aug 29 2016 09:17 PM

Lets wait for that. .. more important is local... that's the fun and main concern.

Looking at the models and the position of TD9... the models are alittle too far west in the very near term. This might mean a more East Path...but it will depend on the next HH Fix in a few hours and next model runs. Most models have this near 86W by morning. I think it will be more around 85.5... not much difference..but difference it the actual turn is important for the landfall forecast in 3 days or so.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96736 - Tue Aug 30 2016 06:10 AM


TD9 is a sprawling tropical cyclone, now directing and dominating the surface winds throughout the entire GOM, the northwest Caribbean, Florida Straits, and a slim portion east from there. This will have some impact on its ability to ramp wind speed up. In this sense, it sort of resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, as it has a chance to stay nestled in this sweet spot, with anticyclonic flow aloft and super toasty waters below, there is reason to believe that it could become a hurricane prior to landfall, and Hurricane Watches may be issued later today per NHC.

NINE has a much better environment to work in this morning than it has had for quite a while, as Jim Cantore points out (Tweet screencap below):

Quote:







Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #96741 - Tue Aug 30 2016 10:19 AM

The continued westerly movement is in line with a poorly developed cyclone that's getting its act together. This new initialization, along with the soon-to-impact (Hermine?) mid-latitude trough should accelerate the advertised northeast movement. New convection, this developing upper-level anticyclone, bathtub water temps in the GOM and Mr. Cantore's use of the "H-word" gets me a little more concerned (Jefferson County, FL). Don't think this will be a major soaker since it will be accelerating as it treks across North Florida on Thursday.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Marknole]
      #96744 - Tue Aug 30 2016 10:34 AM

Welp I was wrong.. didn't think it would get past 86W by 8am and be now only around 86.2 turning NNW. It picked up speed last night around 11mph to get around 87.5 or abouts. Weaker this stays, then more NW it will make landfall in the near term today. Should start moving N later today turn NE later tonight into Weds morning.around the ridge.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #96746 - Tue Aug 30 2016 01:22 PM

99L appears to be in status quo mode today due to continued shear and dry air, so not much different than each of the last seven days. Once it turns northeastward and moves with the upper flow it should be able to organize further, which is what models are showing.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96750 - Tue Aug 30 2016 02:53 PM

First light over the central Pacific today



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #96757 - Tue Aug 30 2016 05:50 PM

From the 4:00 PM CDT Discussion on Nine:

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center.

As I stated in my previous post, if this does follow the forecast path, Orlando could be in for a bit of rain.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #96758 - Tue Aug 30 2016 06:43 PM

I guess we could say the same thing for the Tampa area...I live in Lakeland which isn't that far from Orlando. Our local stations are not saying "how" much rain; just that we'll be on the "wet side" of the storm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96771 - Tue Aug 30 2016 09:32 PM

Hey Colleen, how ya doing? I actually think that based on the overall synoptics, this could come in a bit further south from where they are projecting IMO. If you look at the trough and the alignment of where the showers are heading from SW to NE, they look to be heading right at the nature coast. And with the COC being SW of where it was supposed to be, it could very well be where it was forecast yesterday, closer to Cedar Key. Just my observation. Hope you are doing well - been a while!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Steve H1]
      #96773 - Tue Aug 30 2016 10:54 PM

This has been an interesting storm to watch...I never say never. It's weird to see Hurricane Watches up when it's not even been named. That being said....I've seen weirder things with these storms.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96774 - Tue Aug 30 2016 11:05 PM

Nine ends the night still a Tropical Depression, although definitely better organized, with convection now on the north side. Forecast has it just under hurricane strength at landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend. Most of the rain and weather associated with the large storm is on the east and south sides, which will bring the rain and some wind to most of Florida.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96781 - Wed Aug 31 2016 07:55 AM

TD#9 is having large bursts of convection this morning near the ceter, it's extremely likely it'll become Hermine at the 11AM Advisory.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96798 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:43 AM

Where has Recon been... both the 530Z and 1130Z never took off???

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #96801 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:14 AM

Still a TD at 15Z - somewhat of a surprise, but since the storm is stationary its not a big concern at the moment. NOAA Recon is scheduled to take off at 16Z (USAF resources are working Madeline in the Central Pacific) and NHC is waiting on that flight data before upgrading TD 9.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #96805 - Wed Aug 31 2016 12:13 PM

Earlier recon was scrubbed for mechanical issues that are now fixed.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 30194

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center