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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - TD8
      #96687 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:21 PM

At 28/15Z, Tropical Depression #8 was located about 300 miles to the west of Bermuda at 31.5N 70.0W with winds of 30 knots gusting to 40 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. Movement was to the west at 9 knots. The tropical cyclone should pass offshore from the outer banks of North Carolina on Tuesday as a Tropical Storm with winds of 35 to 40 knots. After approaching NC, a frontal trough moving off the east coast should move the system off to the northeast and out to sea before dissipation.

Convection is currently displaced to the west of the center by easterly windshear. The easterly shear should relax by early Monday morning as the system enters a zone of light shear before encountering the southwesterly shear ahead of the trough as noted in the NHC discussion bulletin. With SSTs at 29.5C, this will give the TD a short timeframe for some additional intensification as it approaches the NC coast.

From NHC: "Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression." In Meteorology you only make a statement like this when you have done something controversial. Contrary to the NHC explanation, I personally believe that this system is indeed the regeneration of ex-TS Fiona - but it will still get a new name. In the past decade there seems to be a tendency for the NHC to take this approach with weak systems and the only impact is an elevated storm count, but perhaps post-analysis will eventually correct this unusual approach. Folks in the South Carolina to Virginia eastern coastal areas need to closely monitor this developing system for any unexpected changes.
ED


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