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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 47
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97367 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:35 PM

Based on WESH 2's hi-resolution future-cast radar, coastal Volusia looks to get the forward and rear portions of Matthew's eyewall Friday as the center tracks NNW straddling the coast. This historic hurricane is close to a worse case scenario for Florida's east coast. A category 5 starting further south in Miami-Dade making the same run Matthew is forecast to make is the only thing I can think of that is potentially more devastating.

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Lots Of Canes
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97368 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:04 AM

Gotta say I'm worried about getting both top and bottom eye in Palm Coast. Shutters are on.

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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lots Of Canes]
      #97381 - Thu Oct 06 2016 08:39 AM

The NHC is doing an excellent job on the forecast track, Matt has been following the center of the line since coming off the tip of Cuba. As I guessed last night he is east of Andros and remains a compact storm. The eye wall was very close to Exuma around 2AM last night and a personal weather station there reported 109 MPH winds as the pressure bottomed out at 29.04 in. Mathew's eye is visible on radar so tracking from here on out should be very straight forward.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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tkusant
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97384 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:09 AM

Is it just me, or does it look lke on satellite view it just took a jog left. Maybe I am hoping it turns west toward me instead of clobbering my parents in melbourne.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3588
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97385 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:20 AM

Matthew is doing rapid intensification now and still has the Gulf stream to cross, lounge thought is that Mathew has a serious shot at becoming a cat 5 before landfall.

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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 78
Loc: SW FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97386 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:44 AM Attachment (94 downloads)

Quote:

Is it just me, or does it look lke on satellite view it just took a jog left. Maybe I am hoping it turns west toward me instead of clobbering my parents in melbourne.




I don't see it. The eye is wobbling a bit and the clouds are obscuring it a little so it's hard to get exact motion between frames. Try not to pay too much attention to frame to frame changes in apparent motion.

Edit: I would not like to be on New Providence Island right now.


Edited by Myles (Thu Oct 06 2016 09:53 AM)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Myles]
      #97393 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:16 AM

11AM update and he is still doing exactly as predicted: some strengthening and following the line perfectly. The northern part of the storm, even close into the core, is looking a bit rough. Not fully symmetrical but trying to get there. With each update the threat to southern FL goes down. Given Matt's current compact structure it doesn't appear that anyone south of West Palm will see hurricane force winds unless Matt's wind field expands in the next 8-10 hours. Still wondering how much influence the warm gulf stream will have. We have seen several storms recently that have "blown up" with rapid intensification in short windows so we still can't fully rule that scenario out.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Leemc
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97395 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:30 AM

Actually, the hurricane wind field went from 40 miles from the center to 60 miles from the center. Yes, we are out of the CONE (W. Delray Beach), but hat only means the eye won't hit us. I won't relax yet.

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Kraig
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97396 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:59 AM

>64 knot (hurricane) wind field from current 11am advisory. 50 miles to NW of center, 30 miles to SW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.3N 80.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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Leemc
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97397 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:40 PM

I am still not taking a victory lap, but the hurricane winds are getting further away from me at 26.26N 80.80W

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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 141
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97412 - Thu Oct 06 2016 02:57 PM

This storm is nothing to become complacent about. According to Jeff Masters: Matthew is on track to become the first major hurricane to make landfall on U.S. shores since Wilma in 2005. It is virtually certain to be the most destructive since Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and it could easily end up among the ten most expensive landfalls in U.S. history adjusted for inflation, perhaps rivaling or topping such recent storms as Wilma, Irene (2011), Ike (2008), Ivan (2004), and Charley (2004). Latest estimates from a University of Michigan-based research group are that as many as 9.6 million people from Florida to North Carolina may lose power as a result of Matthew.
Scary stuff, living in Palm Coast near Flagler Beach we are in the hot zone......


--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #97418 - Thu Oct 06 2016 03:30 PM

Not bad here in Boca Raton, and watching the eye on radar, it appears to be staying well east of what we thought last night.

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Leemc
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97419 - Thu Oct 06 2016 03:53 PM

I am watching WPTV Steve Weigel who said that Matthew took 2 jumps to the north in the last hour. He very clearly explained that two small jumps in an hour don't mean anything and is not a trend. However, lets hope it holds.

Their viper radar is showing some amazing graphics.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97420 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:10 PM

I am lucky enough to get Channel 9 out of Orlando because of my location in Polk County; they are turning people away from shelters now because they are full...they just reported that at one shelter they turned away 5 families. It also seems to me that the western side of this storm is far more wet than what they had predicted earlier. Stay safe everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 304
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97424 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:20 PM

Well I am not as impressedq with the west side of the storm since it seems not to be filling in as I thought it would but that's a good thing. The storm looks funny to me for some reason. Maybe it's going through and eye wall replacement cycle.

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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Steve H1]
      #97425 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:21 PM

Agreed, you can certainly see the weakness (relatively speaking) here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97426 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:26 PM

Last few frames on radar show a nearly due N motion as well. Freeport looks like it in the crosshairs now.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1421
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97428 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 PM

Double eyewalls. Eyewall Replacement Cycle appears to have begun, or is at least attempting to. This has robbed the inner eyewall of quite a lot of moisture, creating a very thick moat of low precip and winds aloft that just aren't transporting as effectively to the surface. However, while this process is underway, the radius of strong tropical storm force winds will likely expand, perhaps substantially, and strong hurricane force winds will likely continue to make it to the surface within one or both eyewalls, just possibly not nearly as intense as before.

The net result of this is not necessarily a good thing, considering that an outright landfall at a given point hasn't always been the greatest concern with Matthew along Florida. A longer wind event is now more likely, with surge impacting a greater area, and possibly also for longer.




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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 180
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Leemc]
      #97430 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM

Got family moved out of Port Orange and Ormond, and I just went back through advisories starting at noon today. Over the last five hours, Matthew has moved .9N & .6W. Granted, that's not a huge amount of time and wobbles east or west are always happening. However, it does seem to be a bit more NNW than NW. Fujiwhara Effect?

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Thu Oct 06 2016 05:29 PM)


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Happy Birthday Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97431 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM

Could be my eyes, but Matthews eye seems to be East of the Forecast points?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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