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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #97493 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:53 AM

I've been watching Channel 9 out of Orlando since we got the last update at 11pm. It appears to me that the outer eyewall is headed right for the coast and the inner eyewall is struggling to keep up...the winds have picked up significantly here in the last hour. I'm guessing a lot of people are without power at this point since there have been no comments on the main page or this page. I've heard 3 snapping branches in my backyard in the last 15 minutes with one landing on my roof. I hope everyone is safe and sound!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 113
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97496 - Fri Oct 07 2016 02:22 AM

2am update matthew down to a 120mph cat 3 per NHC. Good news for the east coast.
I'm not an expert by any means, but as a twenty year hobbyist it looks like an eyewall replacement cycle has been occurring since Freeport. The inner eyewall is now barely visible on radar with the outer eyewall taking its place. This may have expanded the wind field somewhat but it seems to have reduced, at least temporarily, the intensity.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97498 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:07 AM

Not much happening near Wekiva Springs in Seminole county yet. Worst is yet to come, but with Matt staying off the coast, I expect less of an impact.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97499 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:12 AM

Eye now expected to stay just off the coast.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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richg
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Beachside conditions? [Re: berrywr]
      #97500 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:19 AM

Is anyone awake in the satellite beach area that didn't leave? It looks like the worst is about to hit the island and was hoping for a real condition update other than what the TV is saying (over and over again).

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 293
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: richg]
      #97502 - Fri Oct 07 2016 03:53 AM

I`m awake down here in Indiatlantic .Not to bad here yet. Very strong NE winds that I`d say are 50- 60 at best. Lots of rain. We still have 8-10 hours to go before things start to improve some what. I still have power which is a miracle here on beachside.

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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 48
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #97503 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:10 AM

Florida landfall or not, at 4 am the intensity of rain and wind in the bands wrapping around the eye are lighting up radar and appear to be increasing on the NW side of the eye. Haulover canal wind gauge on north Merritt Island just reported hurricane force wind gust. Oak Hill at the north end of the Mosquito Lagoon in southeast Volusia County will get hammered by this part of Matthew soon, continuing through sunrise.

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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 113
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: richg]
      #97504 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:23 AM

Quote:

Is anyone awake in the satellite beach area that didn't leave? It looks like the worst is about to hit the island and was hoping for a real condition update other than what the TV is saying (over and over again).




If you can get to Twitter, @ScienceByMaria is doing live video with reports from Cocoa Beach very near you.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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richg
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Beachside conditions? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97505 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM

Thanks for the beachside info, kinda surprised you still have power after watching the transformers popping like the shock and awe attack. I hope things won't get any worse for you, the first eyewall is coming close. I'm guessing they won't let us back across till late tomorrow at the earliest. Cheers!

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 293
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97506 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM

I agree. Radar image is showing big time rain bands on the NW part of Matthew. I hate to say it but I think you guys up there up there in Volusia are going to get the s**** end of the stick.

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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 48
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97508 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:51 AM

We have sustained 45 gusting to 60 mph now. Expecting hurricane conditions by sunrise. If wind peaks in the 70-80 mph range later this morning we should overall come through OK, which would be GREAT considering what we were expecting from Matthew based on the hurricane's intensification in the northwestern Bahamas yesterday. I sure hope Matthew's course over the past 4 hours stays true and doesn't wobble any to the west.

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IsoFlame
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 48
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97510 - Fri Oct 07 2016 05:01 AM

5 am advisory keeps Matthew's eye offshore on a more NNW track. Still, a westward wobble could bring west side of outer eye wall onto the coast in Volusia and/or Flagler counties. Too close for comfort!

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 293
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97511 - Fri Oct 07 2016 05:03 AM

Watching radar I think I`m seeing a more NNW movement. I hope this is true.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 776
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #97513 - Fri Oct 07 2016 06:28 AM

He is doing everything he can to avoid a landfall in the U.S..

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 323
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97524 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:02 AM

It looks like it was, so far, the best of a worst-case scenario, and the eye is staying just offshore. That's good for winds, but doesn't mean there won't be storm surge. Still plenty of reason for people to be wary of this system.

And an aside, is anyone else having intermittent problems accessing the NHC's website?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 141
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97525 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:34 AM

Measured wind gust Flagler Beach 68 mph at 10:06 am.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97526 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:40 AM

The NHC site seems OK to me now. It was a bit slow earlier this morning, probably due to traffic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 6/2/0


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 297
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: LadyStorm]
      #97528 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:53 AM

From TCpalm.com
'On the Treasure Coast, Martin County was the hardest hit with almost half of its 90,000 customers — 43,000 — without power at 8 a.m. Friday, according to county figures updated roughly every hour to two hours.'

Power went out around 11 last night. Very little tree damage when driving around this AM but did see and hear numerous transformer explosions last night.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Lots Of Canes
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #97530 - Fri Oct 07 2016 11:31 AM

Sure feels and looks on radar to be the eyewall here in flagler.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 160
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lots Of Canes]
      #97532 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:03 PM

Seems to be a bit west of the forecast track on satellite, and the western edge of the eyewall is only about 10 miles offshore according to radar. Jacksonville still in play for landfall?

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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