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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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windy15
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97018 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:43 AM

Hello I am sorry to trouble you all but I have been watching this forum for a few days. I would just like some information. I realise this is not an official page but after going through Gonzalo in 2014 I tend to read these forums.
I now live in Barbados the country has closed down since last night and we are advised not to leave properties and prepare. (I am happy to do so) but out of intrest the conditions we are experiencing are nil and i look at the sat pictures and it looks like a cloud of rain to me. Now i know rain can cause damage etc. I just wanted peoples thoughts. Thank you xxx


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: windy15]
      #97019 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:45 AM


Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Sep 2016 14:36 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT.

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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windy15
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Kraig]
      #97021 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:05 AM

Thanks I will keep an eye out but fornthe last day every statment is just watch and wait

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: berrywr]
      #97024 - Wed Sep 28 2016 12:30 PM

One consistency that is current in the majority of the models is that the system stays east of Florida...that is a good sign. The variant in that seems to be relative strength of the system with those forecasting stronger earlier in the period more east of those with a weaker system
My question is from looking at the current North Atlantic Water Vapor sat. is how confident is anyone that the ULL that is dominating the upper US will drop southeasterly enough to create the steering northward that is predicted...the current trend of that feature seems to be easterly?

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM)


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Rosy
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 9
Loc: Washington, DC
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97027 - Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM

I've followed this board since Charley, and it has been a tremendous educational experience. I do have a question about Matthew's track. I've seen a sharp turn happen unexpectedly, but not one that's been predicted this far out. What's out there that would cause a turn like that to happen?



Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 28 2016 01:11 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Rosy]
      #97028 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:16 PM

Quote:


I've followed this board since Charley, and it has been a tremendous educational experience. I do have a question about Matthew's track. I've seen a sharp turn happen unexpectedly, but not one that's been predicted this far out. What's out there that would cause a turn like that to happen?





Assuming this question is in regards to Matthew's forecast hook to the north, this has actually been advertised for several days by most models, with notable exceptions being the often highly accurate ECMWF, and the GFDL.

What is likely to turn Matthew to the right (north) later in the 5 day forecast period is the steering pattern created by an expectation of lower pressure over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with an eroding and/or retreating High in the western Atlantic. The space in between would be Matthew's red carpet out of the Caribbean.


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Rosy
Registered User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Washington, DC
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #97029 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:36 PM

Yes, that's what I was asking about. I just can't remember seeing such a crazy sharp turn predicted for a storm that far out. Thanks for explaining it.

--------------------
Survived:

Andrew '92 (Miami)
Charley '04 (Ft. Myers) (& weak side of Frances, Jeanne)
Wilma '05 (Ft. Myers)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97030 - Wed Sep 28 2016 01:40 PM

12Z GFS suggests Matthew will make landfall on the western tip of Haiti's Tiburon peninsula late Sunday night or Monday morning as a major hurricane. Over long island in the Bahamas on late Monday night, then stays out to sea. Ensembles haven't run on it, but the last Euro run at 0z, is further west and much slower.


The things to watch out for are how fast Matthew is moving and when the northern turn occurs, slower moving storm would allow for more of a turn back west, fast mover would kick it out to sea. NHC's cone is fairly spot on, if anything it may be a bit too far west. It's prudent to keep watching it closely in the Caribbean.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97031 - Wed Sep 28 2016 05:39 PM

The Euro EPS ensemble is very broad from Western Gulf to Just west of Bermuda in 10 days. Highlights the uncertainty, mean is roughtly Yucatan to Bermuda, slight nod to just east of Florida, the model divergence begins around Friday evening, up until that point it seems pretty good. In short we may not be able to rule out many areas until late this weekend.

Parts of Jamaica/Hati/Easter Cuba may need to prepare for a hurricane soon..


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97033 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:28 PM

Interesting to note on the 500mb linear trend from GFS has been showing slight shifts west with upper low in great Lakes this weekend and gradually building Ridge north of Matthew this weekend. Whether this trend continues is question and might allow for some adjustments to left in future model runs. While European has shifted right in its 12Z run its enesmble has a smattering of possibilities 7 to 10 days out from gulf to Bermuda. Lots of time to watch...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: Joeyfl]
      #97037 - Thu Sep 29 2016 06:48 AM

Quick summary this morning, the GFS hasn't changed much and keeps it out to sea past the Bahamas, although it does take it slightly closer to North Carolina than before next Thursday, although shifting east of Jamaica (although still uncomfortably close) and going over the eastern tip of Cuba on Monday.

Euro operational is further east, and takes it over Haiti on Tuesday, generally trending east. The ensembles have also shifted east, but still are quite spread out. (Which still is a great measure of the level of uncertainty that far out)

Takeaway, Haiti, Jamaica, eastern Cuba may be in for a hurricane Monday/Tuesday, as well as parts of the central or Eastern Bahamas, beyond that too soon to tell, but the trends are good it stays east of US currently, but will have to be watched to see when the "turn" occurs and how fast/slow the system is moving.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97038 - Thu Sep 29 2016 09:32 AM

Shear really putting a hurting on Matthew today. LLC almost exposed on Westside as it out runs deep convection to east thanks to 25 to 30knts of Southwest shear. This just throws in another curve ball to forecast. How will this make matthew react? I suspect with more low level trades may push LLC vs mid and upper levels if this gets to far displaced. Nothing is set in stone yet while trends were bit further east this morning a good thing for southeast US it still needs to be watched closely.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #97039 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:00 AM

As things presently seem to be playing out it is doubtful the storm will get past 73 west. However the forward motion to the west is likely to reduce from the present 13 mph. The influence of the upper low is being felt as far south as the W/ Caribbean area west of 75 W. and is producing a general NNE flow and the anticyclonic push from the SW.US is progressing at a slower pace to the east and so is unlikely to neutralize the North-northeasterly steering flow before it is felt by the storm. Once it is caught in that flow I think it goes with it as there is little chance that an interruption in that flow from the west will materialize for several days yet. Just my opinion...

--------------------
doug


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #97041 - Thu Sep 29 2016 11:44 AM

I don't think the UL will turn Matthew as radically and as soon due to a weaker hurricane (than forecast) favoring the left side of the cone. Consequently, a more gradual turn late Monday would put Jamacia and the eastern half of Cuba in the crosshairs for flooding rains from the copious moisture on the east side of Matthew.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97042 - Thu Sep 29 2016 01:51 PM

Quote:

I don't think the UL will turn Matthew as radically and as soon due to a weaker hurricane (than forecast) favoring the left side of the cone. Consequently, a more gradual turn late Monday would put Jamacia and the eastern half of Cuba in the crosshairs for flooding rains from the copious moisture on the east side of Matthew.




This may not be true anymore. Matthew was just declared a Hurricane by the NHC 24 hours earlier than previously predicted. A stronger storm will more than likely turn sooner. It is all up to the High now.... does it build in west or not.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: NewWatcher]
      #97044 - Thu Sep 29 2016 02:52 PM

Shift west in both GFS and European 12Z runs hopefully high altitude mission tonight will help.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97045 - Thu Sep 29 2016 03:11 PM




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97049 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:30 AM

Model summary from 0z euro and 6z GFS:

Euro has just off the western tip of Cuba Tuessday then briefly over eastern Cuba, over crooked Island in the Bahamas on Wednesday, then out to sea missing Bermuda to the north.

6z GFS Right over Jamaica from the south Monday, then into eastern Cuba, over Nassau on Wednesday, then out to sea, missing Bermuda to the north.

With this Florida nor the US wouldn't see any direct impact from Matthew other than strong rip currents and very edge fringes of the bands along the coastline.

The ensembles are not as widespread as before, but it doesn't make trivial the potential risk to Florida yet, although it has been trending away.

Now that Matthew is a cat 2, and possibly on its way to major, Jamaica should be getting early preps done for possible impact on Monday, and definitely when watches or warnings are placed up. Cuba and Bahamas should be on high alert to move for preparations, and Florida should just watch to see exactly where the storm turns north and how fast it is moving. Odds favor it staying east of Florida, but they are still not strong odds. However since Matthew is a well developed hurricane, the models tend to be more accurate if there is decent forward motion. A lot will depend on when and how the forecast turn to the north happens.


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: NewWatcher]
      #97051 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:36 AM

So much for a "weaker hurricane"!!! I still favor the left side of the cone (through day 3) given that Matthew is currently tracking WSW/W at a fair clip, likely to stay south of 15N when crossing 75W, delaying the UL's northward pull until later Sunday/early Monday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE [Re: IsoFlame]
      #97052 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:52 AM

HWRF takes it over Jamaica early Monday morning as a 947 mb hurricane which is typically associated with category 3 storms (it also shows some dry air entering it) and over Nassau in the Bahamas Tuesday afternoon as a 944 mb hurricane (entering cat 4 territory), then starts to move it away from land.

This system could be devastating for Jamaica, East Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.


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