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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #97227 - Tue Oct 04 2016 02:50 PM

Well the craziness has officially started in Vero Beach. Gas stations have lines around the corners. Home Depot is insane, with flag guys directing traffic. Glad I went yesterday!!!

On another note, the NAVGEM and GFDL runs have a disturbing track for us on the coast. Bringing the storm in around Boca/ WPB as a cat- 3/4. This does not bode well for anyone in the state as it brings it right up the spine of the state and out just south of Jacksonville.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97229 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:06 PM

12Z Euro running ridge starts of fthe same, a bit stronger,

48 hours.. trend west just over Grand Bahama.

72 hours landfall E. Central Florida (Melbourne?)

Then its starts getting weird:

Sunday morning offshore East coast of Georgia then moves southeast well offshore of Cape Canaveral by Monday

ANOTHER landfall after looping back, as a weak Tropical Storm/Depression over Jupiter, Oct 11.

Moves into the Gulf of Mexico west of Ft. Myers on Oct 12th

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=114


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Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97230 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:31 PM

So, three models with a landfall, Miami, Boca, Melbourne. That is a wide range. Three others keep it offshore. Seems like a difficult forecast for the NHC.

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MissBecky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 91
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97231 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:36 PM

Didn't the UKMet also hint at a loop in its latest run? This is not something I expected to see at all.

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In search of a witty sig.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97232 - Tue Oct 04 2016 03:45 PM

I think the problem which caused the hour delay is not resolved

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97233 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:00 PM

Euro Wind swath (in knots), you can convert it to MPH by multiplying by 1.15



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #97235 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:12 PM

Yes. A loop at the end of the run on the 12Z. Interesting.

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Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97239 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:41 PM

I understand they ran the model one hour later due to a windows upgrade; hence, the zany solution.

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #97240 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:46 PM

Quote:

So, three models with a landfall, Miami, Boca, Melbourne. That is a wide range. Three others keep it offshore. Seems like a difficult forecast for the NHC.




All of those forecasts are basically within the margin of error (aka the "cone") at this point in time. Granted some are on the very edge but that is pretty normal. This why they always tell you not to focus on the line down the middle, its just the average or NHC's best estimate. As we get closer the cone will narrow and things will become clearer but that might not help too much for Matt. Because longitude wise MIami, Boca and Melbourne are pretty much the same, while latitude wise they cover way more distance. So the problem here is somewhat like Charley: the angle of approach vs the angle of the shoreline means a small turn or jog dramatically alters where the eyewall crosses onto land (if at all). Everyone thought Charley was heading for Tampa but Punta Gorda was in the cone. This is completely different then an Andrew which was straight in. Any changes in its path wouldn't have made a big different to the effect area. Note: I'm just talking TRACK here not strength or size. 5PM update coming soon.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97242 - Tue Oct 04 2016 04:56 PM

Looking like the reformed eye is a bit left of the current forecast points already...could mean this is trending toward some of the most dangerous models out there right now. That NAVGEM and GFDL put the darn thing almost on my doorstep or between mine and my mom's house up the middle of the state. Also, Friday is the last day of the grading period in my district with a LOT of things going on. I am thinking some water and gas for the cans might not be a bad idea even in my area of Plant City....

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97246 - Tue Oct 04 2016 06:15 PM

Agreed, Lamar. People are so focused on the "line" and not the "cone". Heard so many people where I volunteer today say "Matthew is no threat - look at the line." This is so frustrating to me! I told them to go home and watch the weather for updates...half of them didn't even know we had Hurricane Watches issued this morning. I only have a couple of things to get tomorrow & I'm doing it early. This storm is HUGE. Good luck to all!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97247 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:00 PM

18z GFS: Over Nassau Thursday Morning, Eyewall over Cape Canaveral Friday morning 947mb (cat 3), Skirts SC coastline Saturday

18Z HWRF is still running, but it's markedly further west. Near Grand Bahama Thursday midday, cat 4.



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1404
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97248 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:32 PM

This part of the country hasn't seen a hurricane for so long, it's heartening to see all of those who are taking this threat seriously, and preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

The ATCF Avoidance Area product does a pretty good job illustrating the expanded potential 'danger zones' - the dashed outline encircles the area of tropical storm or worse conditions relative to average track error. As can be seen, even within the 3-day cone, a lot more places than the NHC center line would ever suggest are actually at risk of dangerous tropical cyclone weather.




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tkusant
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97256 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:16 PM

most models now seem to be going back east...

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Prospero
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 85
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97259 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:37 PM

To me the sats seem to show the center making a pretty significant movement to the West as it approached Cuba. Maybe just the interaction with land, yet I am not convinced.

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tkusant]
      #97260 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:41 PM

Quote:

most models now seem to be going back east...




Not seeing that myself. The HWRF which was one of the strongest eastward models has been moving west all day. GFDL has it landfalling around Palm Beach, GFS is still sliding west although keeping it off-shore, ECMWF still sliding a bit westward with landfall near Melbourne....and don't even LOOK at the NAVGEM!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Tue Oct 04 2016 09:44 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97261 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:42 PM

Quote:

To me the sats seem to show the center making a pretty significant movement to the West as it approached Cuba. Maybe just the interaction with land, yet I am not convinced.




Bastardi was tweeting to keep an eye on the movement when it spins up against Cuba...the friction can pull the storm westward in the right conditions...

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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Prospero
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 85
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97262 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:49 PM

I'm not seeing it as clear I thought a while ago. Maybe my eye is wobbling, been staring at sats and reading reports non-stop since 4 am.

I'll wake up in the middle of the night tonight a few times and use my iPhone to see the latest of everything...


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97263 - Tue Oct 04 2016 09:51 PM

Just looking back at some old model runs from 5 and 6 days ago and wow UKMET has done a very good job with its tracking of Matthew so far and is also has close backing from European model and both show loop back next week, while this is lea st of worries right now and would likey be weak system it would only dampen recovery time, but something to keep and eye on with shortwave trough moving through north tier of country getting progressively weaker and strong Ridge building in western atlantic.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97264 - Tue Oct 04 2016 10:44 PM

Get some sleep, my friend. The storm will still be there when you wake up! However, I'm sure that you are just as anxious as I am to see the newest advisory.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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