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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97265 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:09 PM

11PM doesn't show much change, I thought we would see a more westerly track. Does show a tiny slow down. Big worry is a slow down over the warm gulf stream giving Matt plenty of fuel and time to ramp up. However the question of wind field size also has to be addressed. Tomorrow is going to be a long day of watching and waiting. Might do 1/2 the panels tomorrow, then the last 1/2 early Thursday AM. Not sure we will ever have a good enough handle on this storm to make the call on land fall in FL. A few more of the models have gone crazy at the end with a loop or bend back. However the guidance is very tightly clustered thru the Bahamas and then very close to central FL.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97266 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:32 PM

I usually watch Steve Jerve on WFLA but decided to watch ABC Action News with Denis Phillips because he is usually the calmest about these storms. He is not calm about this storm tonight. He's warning parents that they "may want to bring their kids home from colleges that are on the East Coast and to text/FB friends family that are in the cone because of the dangerous conditions this storm may cause." I did notice that the 11pm advisory has shifted to the left. There isn't that many days left until this storm hits...hopefully, the track will change; however - after years of watching these storms (and I did my fair share with Charlie, Frances & Jeanne) the closer the storm gets, the more accurate the cone of "uncertainty" becomes. Just stay prepared and hope for the best. Please understand - I am NOT trying to sound like an alarmist - just realistic. Stay safe, my friend!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3671
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97267 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:45 PM

0Z GFS Run for tonight, trend a bit west again (at least in the near term)

Wednesday midday over long island in the Bahamas
Thursday morning, over Andros island in the Bahamas
Thursday afternoon near Bimini
Late Thursday night, Just east of West Palm Beach, western edge of eyewall over land.
Friday morning, landfall (or razor thin close) cape Canaveral
Rides up along coast, starts turning away to the north within Flagler county.
Moves even further away from land /Georgia on Saturday morning moving NE.
Turns back Southeast, then south, starts heading back to Central Bahamas by Oct 11th (This is getting absurd)
Over Nassau on morning of October 12th.
Over Andros island late October 12th
Nearing the Florida keys late October 13th
Rapidly moves back north Oct 14th
Rakes Florida east coast... again late October 14th.
Starts moving out to sea? October 15th.

The most interesting (and absurd) model run I've ever seen, it keeps it a major hurricane the entire run.




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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97269 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM

That's one crazy loop on the 0z GFS. Looks like it's going for eastern FL twice...a week apart... I'll believe it when I see it happen. Not to say it's impossible...but...wow.

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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL 28.20N 80.60W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97270 - Wed Oct 05 2016 12:54 AM

Yeah, Jeanne in 2004 did a loop and headed back toward Florida, but not that big of a loop.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3671
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Troy C]
      #97280 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM

Quick model check... yep more west...

0Z EURO Overnight : Late tonight just west of Long Island in the Bahamas, Late Tomorrow Between Grand Bahama and Ft. Lauderdale, rides up or just in coast until Friday Night to Jacksonville, Moves away from shore, then back east of South Carolina to start a big loop Tuesday night it's approaching the Northern Bahamas from the east (moving southwest) where the run ends.

6Z GFS slight shift west
near or over Nassau Midday tomorrow, Very close to west palm Beach Friday Morning, landfall? or razor close on Cape Canaveral midday Friday, Over Daytona Beach Friday Afternoon, Just offshore Jacksonville early Saturday morning, Sharp loop east by midday Saturday, Between Grand Bahama and West Palm Beach (again) on Tuesday Night Rides southwest just offshore the Florida coast to Marathon through Thursday morning of next week. Then rides back up toward Miami and then turns east back over Grand Bahama then Abaco Island, and finally out to sea.

These really odd runs with loops are extremely troubling beyond the short term. Florida's hurricane drought is very OVER. (Hermine and this)

0Z GFDL Landfall West Palm Beach midday Friday,r ides just inland up the coast of Florida, exiting near St. Augustine Saturday morning.
6Z HWRF still east of the coast, but closer than earlier runs.





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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97281 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM

Guess that looping caused the hour delay, very interesting. Seems to possibly be a "thing" now.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97286 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:51 AM

Quote:

The most interesting (and absurd) model run I've ever seen, it keeps it a major hurricane the entire run.




Last night it seemed like a joke, but now it appears this might be a real possibility.

Also noticed another slight slow down, what once was a Thursday PM event is now a Friday AM event for FL coast. Any more trends west will put hurricane force winds onto the coast.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97290 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:09 AM

You seeing this also? Appears west of 12Z track guidance. Another westward adjustment possibly forthcoming?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3671
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97291 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:15 AM

Windyty projection of canaveral landfall based on Euro

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 323
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97292 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:34 AM

Ummm... yeah. Those loops are really starting to filter through the models. When it was just one I laughed it off as an anomaly, but this is starting to look extremely disconcerting. And the official 8am NHC track reflects that, too.

Wow. And I thought Jeanne was an odd duck.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #97298 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:02 AM

No changes in the 11AM update... still just brushing by the Space Coast. Panels are going up, the core is just too strong to risk it. If this was a Cat 1/2 I wouldn't be worried but with a Cat 3/4 on the doorstep better safe then sorry.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Jelf
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97301 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:36 AM

The link below displays a Google/GIS map that always shows the latest Hurricane Mathew data that is hosted on the federal GIS (Geographical Information System) servers. Each time you open the map the most recent data hosted on the GIS servers is displayed.

The map also displays the U.S. National Grid (USNG) which is the official coordinate system used by FEMA for all ground operations.

To (1) see the map key, (2) learn how to turn other GIS overlay layers on/off and (3) get other tips for using the map, please click “About this map” in the upper left corner.

Google/GIS Hurricane Mathew map: http://bit.ly/2d3jDFc

I am the developer of Gmap4 which is the software that is displaying the map. This project is a public service and part of my way to “pay it forward”. For more information please see the Gmap4 homepage:
https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.html


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3671
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Jelf]
      #97319 - Wed Oct 05 2016 02:42 PM

12Z Euro landfall somewhere in Brevard friday morning, rides up coast a bit landfall Charleston, SC Saturday morning the heads east and does a loop.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97321 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:23 PM

I am in southwest Seminole County, FL. Is anyone boarding up? We did for the second Hurricane of 2004 and it made a world of difference. It is just so big of a task. I need to buy new plywood and cut it. This is a huge undertaking.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 118
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97322 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:24 PM

Models continue to trend more west. Would not surprise me if this storm gets further inland in Florida. At its present trajectory it looks to pass Andros to the west which would put south Florida more in play. and possibly more effects along the west coast of florida as well.

Edited by dolfinatic (Wed Oct 05 2016 03:32 PM)


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 36
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97323 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:26 PM

If Boston's Nor'easter "Benchmark" is 40N/70W, then Andros is South Florida's equivalent. Latest visible floater shows a northerly wobble, but think it will stay east of that large Bahamian island. Matthew Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

Edited by Marknole (Wed Oct 05 2016 03:29 PM)


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Lots Of Canes
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
GFS Pressure off from other models [Re: Marknole]
      #97325 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:34 PM

Anyone notice the GFS pressure is considerably higher than the other models? It has been the last few runs. Look here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=100

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 118
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #97326 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:36 PM

Ya I see the wobble now. but I'm sure this will wobble back and forth. It is really key as to which side storm passes Andros as to where the effects will be felt in Florida. Seems the ridge is building faster and a little stronger than originally thought. Just my take. I reserve the right to change my mind at any given moment. LOL..

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #97327 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:40 PM

Quote:

At its present trajectory it looks to pass Andros to the west which would put south Florida more in play.




This was my brother's call too. West of Andros = FL landfall, east of Andros = just along the coast.
On the last RGB image the eye is about an eye's width SE of its projected location.

Panels are up... 4 hours of sweating so I'm sure Matt will head out to sea now

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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