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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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kapSt.Cloud
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Loc: Florida
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97328 - Wed Oct 05 2016 03:56 PM

My error was in posting in the wrong forum so I was directed to post here. My post was:
"Is the GFS model reliable? It's tracking Matthew to ride the coast of Florida north to South Carolina. Then it veers eastward, does a loop to a projected path to hit Florida again, then into the Gulf!!

Edited by kapSt.Cloud (Wed Oct 05 2016 04:09 PM)


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #97333 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM

The GFS is one of the models NHC uses to forecast the track of the storm. If you look at the past projections the forecast track near term has been moving closer to FL and later shifting away from a NC landfall to turning back out to sea. This is due to multiple models including GFS. The European model has in general outperformed GFS on this storm and also turns Matthew back to sea after FL. Don't focus on one model but rather look at them as a group and see if what they are telling you in terms of the atmospheric conditions driving the storm makes sense. I hope GFS is wrong but time will tell.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!

Edited by mikethewreck (Wed Oct 05 2016 05:22 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #97336 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:33 PM

The GFS model is catching up to the European models - a little bit slower now there is more consensus among the models. If you watch the video that was posted on the main page earlier today, it will explain a lot. My main concern at this point is that is threading the needle (not that the Bahamas are anything like Cuba or Haiti) and there's really nothing in Matthew's way to stop him from intensifying. To be honest, I'm beginning to think (stress "I'm", lol) that this is going to be more than just a brush across the coastline; that being said - I am no meteorologist. Orlando is now under a Hurricane Warning and I only live 40 minutes from Disney.
One other thing: the models began picking up on Matthew coming back for a second round earlier this morning and I thought "Are they nuts?!" but now it looks as though THAT may also be verifying. Keep safe and take care! Colleen :-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 76
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97337 - Wed Oct 05 2016 05:42 PM

I am starting to have some concerns about the intensity forecast. The last few frames of the satellite pictures show a massive burst of convection on the north side of the CDO. This is normally "to me" a sign of rapid intensification. My thoughts have always been 130 mph+ get out of town, no matter what. Thoughts would be appreciated. Is this just an overactive mind or is there a basis to believe this could get back to 140mph?

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97341 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:06 PM

Quote:

Is this just an overactive mind or is there a basis to believe this could get back to 140mph?




While I understand your concern - the front right quadrant is projected to remain offshore, and the hurricane force winds are in a fairly compact area.

At this exact moment in time, it's a bit too early to say that you should worry.

I rode out Frances and Jeanne in Brevard County - and both were bearing down as Cat 4 storms.

Due to the overall minimal size of the hurricane wind field, the strongest quad being out to sea, and the uncertainty regarding the track - pay attention, but at this exact moment, it's difficult to tell you that you're overreacting.

I will, however, say that if you are not comfortable, that you should make preparations sooner rather than later.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 76
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: tpratch]
      #97343 - Wed Oct 05 2016 07:22 PM

We also rode out Frances and Jeanne here in Vero. The difference between 125 mph and 140 is drastic. Jeanne we had gusts to 123 at the airport and never had the calm of the eye, just the northern eye wall. I guess we will decide in the morning with the 8am update. Thank you for the input.

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Prospero
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 92
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97345 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:10 PM

Jeanne passed over Tampa Bay in the evening as a non-event, but after everyone went to sleep it moved over the Gulf of Mexico and fired back up. Around 3:00 am as far away as Sun City Center (maybe 20 or 30 miles) in the southeast quadrant I awoke to the sound of wind that I thought was going to suck the a/c unit out of my window. Within a little while the power was out and it was almost two weeks before we had electricity again. In the morning I took a drive and saw widespread damage and many trees down.

Never under-estimate a storm, a single outer band can cause a lot of damage.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97346 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:21 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFDL and GFS models are showing the eye just inland and tracking right up the St. John's river through Jacksonville. It will be interesting to see if the 11PM track guidance shifts a little more to the West. Anymore westward track would bring the probability of TS force conditions to the Tampa Bay area and West Central FL. Keeping an update to update watch here.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 6/2/0


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Prospero
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 92
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97347 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:30 PM

Here in Gulfport with all of our old trees, a sustained wind of 30 mph would create quite a problem, especially if it is from the North.

Hopefully the torrential rains will not affect us like it did with Hermine since St. Petersburg tends to dump its raw sewage into the bay every time there is a major downpour. I'm still coughing from the recent Red Tide bloom that was likely caused at least in part by their sewage in the Gulf of Mexico. Ugh


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97348 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:45 PM

8 PM update and the models are coming into agreement, they all point to landfall along the space coast. Titusville sticks out into the sea so this coastal rider is likely going to cut across the land there. The angle of approach is less now, thus southern FL (Miami-Dade county and southern Broward) will likely be out of the really bad stuff. However areas further north and inland (of landfall) are more under threat now. Its not often you see Orlando with a hurricane watch.

Matt is currently east of his projected path which I assume will result in the cone is pulling further north while at the same time shrinking the threat to the south. Jeff Masters posted that this is very much like David which is the 1st storm I ever experienced at only 8 years old. My biggest take away from that was the surge, even in Ft Lauderdale due to the angle, as that batters a larger section of coast then a direct-in style landfall.

There is a large amount of energy to the north of Matt's eye but it is yet to wrap around. The current asymmetrical look is why the winds are down slightly. But if Matt wraps up it could easily regain that Cat 4 status. He appears kind of squished and elongated N/S and no longer that perfect ball like before.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL 28.20N 80.60W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97349 - Wed Oct 05 2016 08:58 PM

Titusville doesn't really stick out into the sea, although to its east is geographic Cape Canaveral which does.

That being said the track does appear , at 8pm, to go right over most of central and northern Brevard County. Unprecedented situation possible for this area.

I'm on SW VA right now. Hang in there everyone. Be safe.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 302
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97350 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:00 PM

Slight correction. Orlando and Orange County is under a Hurricane WARNING.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #97351 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:15 PM

In my own humble opinion - you do what you feel most comfortable with...this is a storm over 700 miles wide - that is nothing to play around with at all. As far as intensity goes - I watched Charlie ramp up from a Cat 1/2 to a 4 in a matter of hours. I live inland and am currently under a TS Warning. Orlando is now under a Hurricane Warning. I would not say you are over reacting at all - just concerned & right fully so. I went to get some extra supplies at Publix today and the gas station right next to it was turning people away. Go with your gut. Do what you think is right for you and your family. If nothing else, you'll have some extra supplies. Even the NHC can't predict intensity - and it's not that far away. Stay safe! Colleen :-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1469
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97353 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:42 PM

Matthew appears to be prepping for yet another round of significant intensification overnight tonight. Deep convection is blowing up over the radius of maximum winds, and wrapping all the way around the eye. Additionally, objective forward looking T numbers out of CIMSS are hitting the 7s using a pinhole eye analysis. This current picture, combined with a forecast of very low shear aloft, abundant mid-level humidity, and 27-30c waters to a depth of up to 400' below the surface for the next 18-30 hours, argue for the potential of another rapid intensification, or at a minimum, a hike back up to high-end Cat 3, overnight. My own personal opinion is of a 55% chance of mid-range Cat 4 or better within 30 hours.

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Team getterdun
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Tampa (SOG)
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97354 - Wed Oct 05 2016 09:45 PM

Does anybody have a good link for up-to-minute sea bouy data in this storms' area? Wind speed and wave height, etc...

Edit by RedingtonBeachGuy -- try this: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Wed Oct 05 2016 09:57 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97356 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:17 PM

I remember Jeanne well...I fell asleep around 4am only to hear shingles ripping off our roof. Many trees down in our neighborhood - which was mostly due to Charlie & Frances. The neighbor behind us had a tree fall right through the middle of his house. Scariest storm I ever went through...stay safe and alert everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97358 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:26 PM

Quote:

Matthew appears to be prepping for yet another round of significant intensification overnight tonight.




The core is becoming symmetrical again, with a strong eye wall and distinct, clear eye feature. Out flow is still somewhat limited but some spiral bands are becoming apparent. It will be interesting to see if this causes Matt to spread out, currently he is pretty compact. Strengthening is occurring, which was predicted. Still appears a touch east of its projected path but only by a few miles.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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vonkamp
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Green Cove Springs, FL
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #97360 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:54 PM

Quote:

The 18Z runs of the GFDL and GFS models are showing the eye just inland and tracking right up the St. John's river through Jacksonville. It will be interesting to see if the 11PM track guidance shifts a little more to the West. Anymore westward track would bring the probability of TS force conditions to the Tampa Bay area and West Central FL. Keeping an update to update watch here.




Good grief, I live on the St. Johns River in Green Cove Springs. I guess I'll be bugging out in the am. Been raining all day and night here.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 202
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #97365 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:15 PM

11PM update shows no changes to track, just a note about a slight NNW turn occurring Thursday night. That appears to be what will push Matt more towards the Space Coast and away from the Broward/Palm Beach area in a slow arch. The core is looking really strong but Matt continues to be a small, compact storm. Outflow still appears somewhat limited, especially to the NE where I assume the High is pushing back against him, the SE quadrant shows more expansion. So far he has not "puffed" up yet and maintains 115 MPH in a 45 mile ring only. Hopefully we don't wake up to a huge monster in terms of wind field expansion or a big jump in overall strength. The last few RBTOP frames show a return to the projected path. Still looks to brush the east side of Andros, where Nassau looks to take the worst of it from the NE quadrant.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1399
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #97366 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:22 PM

I'm not looking forward to hearing the new Recon info...I can see it myself...Matt has nothing in his way. It looks right now as though the whole entire state will be affected one way or the other.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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