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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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Life-Threatening Matthew About to Start Unleashing on Hispaniola
      #97022 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:49 AM

12:30 AM EDT 03 October 2016 Update

Haiti is one of poorest countries in the entire Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of residents live in poverty, and it is one of the most densely populated and least developed countries. (Source: CNN)

Most of Haiti is mountainous, and extreme deforestation has eroded much of the earth there, with little, if anything, to hold it in place to prevent mudslides and flash flooding. Since becoming a hurricane, Matthew has had an unusually tight, arguably symbiotic connection to a large and powerful convective complex now located to his east (formerly east-southeast). This thunderstorm complex is producing rain rates that are off the hook, and is ever so slowly rotating around Matthew's center ... sort of a tanker of an outer band for lack of a better description ... and is about to begin affecting the island of Hispaniola, home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with unforgiving torrential rain.

Whether or not the core of Matthew makes a direct hit on Hispaniola, and it likely will come very close if not doing so, the risk of catastrophic flooding and mudslides is going up exponentially tonight. Those in this path need to be paying especially close attention not only to the center of Matthew's circulation, but his entirety, especially including this peripherally connected massive thunderstorm complex, and rushing life-saving precautions to completion on that island now.



2 PM EDT 02 October 2016 Update

Hurricane Matthew has restrengthened to 145MPH winds as it moves northwest, warnings are up for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba. Watches up for Dominican Republic and the southeastern Bahamas. There is still a very high amount of uncertainty even int he shorter range with Matthew, therefore Florida and the Southeast should continue to monitor the storm.



5 AM EDT 02 October 2016 Update



Matthew continues to be an incredibly powerful hurricane defying odds and challenging forecasters, but it is not magic. Some of the factors influencing the hurricane's phenomenal intensification and maintenance were advertised well in advance. However, models mostly failed to adequately work with these clues, and have been further challenged by an unusually large number of transient variables. One of those possibly not being talked about enough is Invest 98L . See the INVEST 98L LOUNGE for details.

Explanations and excuses aside, the time for those in Matthew's Cone of Uncertainty to take decisive precautions to protect life and property is at hand. This very resilient hurricane maintains its major status, and if anything, may also actually be growing larger. There is an ever increasing threat of catastrophic storm surge along low lying areas, in addition to tornado-like winds inside his core ... and what may become one of Matthew's most tragic of all impacts, inland flooding and mudslides.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the border with the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Cuban province of Camaguey, Southeastern Bahamas including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins; Crooked Island, and Long Cay; Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti


5 PM EDT 01 October 2016 Update



Hurricane Warning issued for Jamaica and Haiti, Hurricane Watch Issued for Cuba.

Forecast track shifts a bit east, with high uncertainty in the longer range, chance for direct import on Florida is greatly reduced, but not eliminated. Bahamas likely will be dealing with the system after Cuba/Haiti, and Mid Atlantic to Northeast still needs to monitor it. Florida just needs to be on alert for any changes.

12 AM EDT 01 October 2016 Update

Now that Matthew has become a Cat 5, here are more incredible stats this tropical cyclone has achieved (credits to Philip Klotzbach)

Quote:

Matthew has intensified by 80 mph over past 24-hr - only 2 Atlantic TCs on record had stronger 24-hr intensification rates (Wilma & Felix)

Matthew is the lowest latitude category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record at 13.3°N

Matthew ends a 3314 day drought since the last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic (Felix-2007)

Matthew became the 31st Atlantic basin Category 5 hurricane on record




11 PM EDT 30 September 2016 Update
Matthew becomes the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007.

7:45 PM EDT 30 September 2016 Update

Matthew is now a Category 4 hurricane with 150mph maximum sustained winds.

Hurricane watches are up for Jamaica, which is the forecast path for Matthew. Those in Jamaica should prepare now for a major hurricane landfall from the south.



Beyond Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will be dealing with Matthew as well. If it directly impacts the US is still unknown due to a complex pattern setting up, but as it stands right now, odds favor it staying east of Florida. It will be close enough for very rough surf along the coast regardless. Florida or the southeast US *cannot* be rules out, so its important to maintain a close eye on the system through the week. It may stall out over the Bahamas or slow down quite a bit, which would increase the uncertainty.

7:30 AM EDT 30 September 2016 Update

Matthew gives the appearance of a rapidly strengthening hurricane this morning, Cat 2 at the 5AM advisory, possibly stronger now. It has moved just south of west overnight and seems to be continuing on that track for the moment.



For those in Jamaica, extreme western Haiti, and Eastern Cuba it would be prudent to prepare for a major hurricane. Watches/Warnings are not up yet, but likely will be soon.

Those in the Bahamas and Florida should keep a close watch. Models currently keep Matthew east of the state, but it still is within the margin of ensemble error.

10:00 PM EDT 29 September 2016 Update
Matthew continues intensifying ahead of schedule, and may be now tracking a little more noticeably just south of due west (as forecast). It has been clear throughout the afternoon that the cyclone is in the process of building an inner core, and it would not be surprising to see an eye develop soon.



The most recent recon pass has found the minimum pressure down to 985mb, with a recently deployed dropsonde encountering winds of 106 knots (122 MPH) at the 925mb level - roughly 2000 ft (image below). In addition to producing dangerously strong winds, Buoy 42059 located north of the center just received wave heights of up to 30 ft.

Matthew is a large, powerful and dangerous hurricane. All interests along its path should heed official guidance, and make plans well in advance, if possible.



2PM EDT 29 September 2016 Update
Recon has found lower pressure and stronger winds bringing Matthew officially to hurricane status. It's facing some shear so in the short term it is unlikely to strengthen much, but in the next day or two conditions may improve enough for it to reach major hurricane status.

Tropical Storm Watches are effect for Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba which may be close enough to Matthew to feel some effects from it, although the storm is forecast to stay north of those islands.


Original Update



Tropical Storm Matthew
Recon flying the large and strong tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles this morning found a messy, but closed surface circulation and winds to 60 MPH - and so Invest 97L has gone directly to being named, Matthew, the 13th named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

This storm is going to be landlocked in the central to eastern Caribbean and then largely forecast to turn to the north rather sharply by later in the week, and could become a significant hurricane in a few days. Interests in the central to eastern Caribbean may want to begin taking seriously all official watches and warnings for their areas.

As of 11AM AST Sep 28, A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. It does not appear immediately likely that hurricane conditions will occur over these islands, but it is somewhat possible. Matthew is a strong and strengthening tropical cyclone.

More speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.

Matthew Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Matthew - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float15latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Jamaica Storm Info/Media

Jamaica Radar

Jamaican Meteorological Service

Jamaica Observer

Jamaica Star

Jamaica CVM TV

Television Jamaica

Jamaica News Network

Jamaica Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management

Power 106.1 Jamaica Radio

> Bahamas Media

Bahamas Radar

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas

Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97023 - Wed Sep 28 2016 11:53 AM

Added Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording. yesterday.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97032 - Wed Sep 28 2016 07:46 PM

Recon has found Matthew slightly stronger than earlier tonight, the center is west of St. Lucia. Likely 1004mb 65MPH

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97034 - Wed Sep 28 2016 08:34 PM

Martinique is getting a lot of the weather from Matthew tonight, a station on St. Pierre reported an 89mph gust.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97035 - Wed Sep 28 2016 10:38 PM

There are some very interesting stats surrounding Matthew and the Atlantic basin as it relates to Matthew in general.

* Matthew is the 5th Atlantic TC to be named since 9/12 - tied for the most on record in the Atlantic to form between 9/12-9/28 (Source: Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew's initial intensity of 50 knots was stronger than max intensity that half of the first 12 named storms in Atlantic in 2016 achieved. (Philip Klotzbach)

* With the naming of Matthew, the Atlantic basin has generated 50 Named Storm Days in 2016, the most in a single Atlantic hurricane season since 2012. (Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew is the lowest latitude Atlantic named storm in the eastern Caribbean since 2010's Tomas. (Philip Klotzbach)

* Matthew's earlier min pressure of 1008mb is the highest for any TC with 50+ kt winds in the eastern Caribbean since 2001's Dean (Phil Klotzbach)

* With the formation of Matthew, 2016 became the 8th fastest to 13 named storms in the Atlantic basin (Phil Klotzbach)

* Since 1960, only 3 other Atlantic tropical cyclones that were not previously subtropical cyclones have formed with 60+ mph winds (Source: Michael Lowry)

Finally, this last quote speaks only to the Caribbean Sea's ability to often be especially favorable for significant development, and not as any indication one way or another as to the future intensity of Matthew. This is merely noteworthy in that Matthew is an intensifying tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, and doing so while entering the eastern Caribbean 'graveyard,' no less: * Since 1950, half of the 22 hurricanes that reached Category 5 status in the Atlantic Basin did so in the Caribbean Sea. This includes the two strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, in terms of central pressure: 2005's Hurricane Wilma and 1988's Hurricane Gilbert. The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes, 2007's powerful duo of Dean and Felix, were both in the Caribbean Sea. (Source: The Weather Channel)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97036 - Thu Sep 29 2016 01:25 AM

Over the last 10 years I have seen quite a few Tropical Cyclones fall into the "Behind the Pressure to Wind Speed Relationship". (PWR)
I can't recall seeing a Tropical Cyclone so far ahead of the PWR curve.
An average 1008mb system is normally a Tropical Depression.

An average 60kt (70 mph) Tropical Storm has a pressure of 1001mb.

These are averages over several decades of data.

Example: TD Matthew would be 1008mb and 35mph (30kt) winds.
TS Matthew is currently 1004mb and 65mph (56kts) winds.

Apparently there is a very tight inner vortex with Matthew. What that may mean down the road ahead we will have to wait and see.


As of 45 minutes ago RECON has found an Extrapolated SFC. Pressure of 1001.5mb. So Matthew is "equalising" if you will.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 29 2016 01:30 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Matthew [Re: danielw]
      #97043 - Thu Sep 29 2016 02:02 PM

Recon found 993 mb pressure and stronger winds despite the shearing going on, thus Matthew is now a hurricane.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97046 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:13 PM

Pressure drops on Matthew continue, recon found 985, the system is moving just south of due west, and the 0z early cycle models (aka model plots) have shifted slightly west. Jamaica may be dealing with a hurricane Monday, along with Cuba and then the Bahamas. Beyond that it's still too soon to tell, but it is likely to stay just east of Florida (Florida still will need to watch closely if anything changes) and could impact somewhere in the US later, so it is definitely one to watch.

Those in the Greater Anitlles, Jamaica, Western Haiti and Eastern Cuba, could potentially have a cat 2 or 3 to deal with in a few days.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97047 - Thu Sep 29 2016 10:25 PM

First sign of a visible eye starting to form in this sat photo,



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97050 - Fri Sep 30 2016 07:34 AM

the first few visible sat pics suggest to me Matthew may already be close or at cat 3.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97053 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:57 AM

Recon found a pressure of 969mb, indicating a strengthening storm. It seems likely that Matthew will get bumped up to a 110mph hurricane at 11am.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97055 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:20 AM

Recon also noted that the eyewall was still open to the southwest (earlier this morning it was open to the southeast) so I suspect that NHC will keep Matthew at Cat II (which would still fit the 110mph wind speed). Uncommonly high winds with no visible eye is something often seen with storms in the Caribbean Sea, however as soon as Matthew gets away from the dry thermal low of northern South America the eye will have a better chance to fully form.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97056 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:30 AM

Interesting things to follow today:

Matthew is already south of the first forecast position of the 5am advisory (13.8N),

13.7N is the official furthest southerly point in 24 hours,

Recon found it at 13.73N.

Caribbean radar recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?229 helps here also, although it's starting to move out of the range of the radar.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97057 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:49 AM

Matthew is now a category 3 hurricane.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97060 - Fri Sep 30 2016 01:38 PM

Recon finds it at 960mb, raised to 120mph at 2PM, still moving west southwest.
This pressure is the lowest for an Atlantic hurricane in the tropics (<23.5°N) during September in 5 years (Katia-2011). (From Phil K.)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97067 - Fri Sep 30 2016 03:33 PM

Recon extrapolated pass, down to 954mb now. 114kots at flight level (131mph), so possibly 125mph at the surface.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97069 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:04 PM

Recon has found pressures 949mb and 121knot flight level now, dropsonde at 120knots. Could be close or at Cat 4 by 5pm.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97070 - Fri Sep 30 2016 04:20 PM

Dvorak T6.5, Matthew is rapidly intensifying could make Cat 5 if this keeps up. Also, still moving west southwest.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97072 - Fri Sep 30 2016 05:07 PM

More recent dropsonde found 127kt surface winds, about 30 minutes ago.

IR looks spectacular:


Most recent microwave pass:


Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 30 2016 05:41 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97076 - Fri Sep 30 2016 08:22 PM

SFMR just got 143kt surface winds. Category 5 speeds. Waiting for NHC to make it official.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97077 - Fri Sep 30 2016 08:27 PM

Quote:

SFMR just got 143kt surface winds. Category 5 speeds. Waiting for NHC to make it official.




That looks like it was flagged as a bad reading, but it still seems likely to hit 5 overnight if no replacement cycles start before then.

edit: looks like temp/humidity was flagged, not the wind.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97078 - Fri Sep 30 2016 08:46 PM

CIMSS Raw T at 7.2

Clean 165 MPH SFMR estimate

Still intensifying, extremely dangerous. Likely the Atlantic's first Cat 5 since 2007's Felix.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97079 - Fri Sep 30 2016 08:46 PM

Watching satellite loops closely, it still is moving west southwest, and has picked up a bit of forward speed tonight. Turn toward the north most likely will happen tomorrow afternoon or evening.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97080 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:55 PM

Motion has been more southwest than wsw the last few hours, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97081 - Fri Sep 30 2016 09:57 PM

Mike, take a look at CIMSS mean layer steering currents - for <940mb storms it looses most of the westerly motion.

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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97082 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:03 PM

We have not seen a Fix like this out of an Atlantic basin recon mission in a very, very long time

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 1:56Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 1:25:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°20'N 72°04'W (13.3333N 72.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 150 statute miles (241 km) to the WNW (292°) from Oranjestad, Aruba (Netherlands).

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,094m (10,151ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)


K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #97084 - Fri Sep 30 2016 10:27 PM

Well that ramped up quickly! Matt pushed thru the wind shear without losing any stream at all. And now finds itself in a stable environment which is causing it to spin up to serious levels. The projected path is an odd one. 'Canes rarely move due any direction, especially N over long periods of time. If the ridge to the east weakness Matt move NE runs into the Bahamas and out to sea never to be heard from again. But if the H sets up shop then he'll push west... and I don't like the look of that at all.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: JMII]
      #97093 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:07 AM

Models trends have been to the east since the westernmost shift of the GFS early this morning, Matthew appears to be moving due west and the gradual turn north is expected within the next 12 hours. The NHC track seems good, forecast lounge discusses the long range more, but in summary the consensus keeps it just offshore of the US, but is not as good for the Bahamas. Impacts on Florida and the Southeast cannot be ruled out, however.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97095 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:26 AM

Beyond that today we are watching for when it starts to gain more latitude (good west benchmark is what it's doing when it reaches 74W), and how fast its moving to see how much Jamaica winds up with. Slower forward speed would cloud things, faster forward speed would make the models generally more reliable.

The eye is going through replacement cycles so it's a bit ragged, and be careful about trying to use it to determine movement direction while doing so, as it may wobble or give appearances, a series of 3 or more recon fixes would likely be the best indicator for motion.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97100 - Sat Oct 01 2016 04:04 PM

I've been out most of the day, models seem to be even more split in the long range with the ensembles spreading more beyond 4 days, right now (which means no real confidence on where Matthew may go). Matthew is currently doing a cyclonic loop moving south, east, and back around, which is an interesting stall, when it resumes a distinct, non-looping motion is when we'll see which of the models has a better handle on it (and if any of them actually do).

Recon is suggesting its getting its act together again. 939mb

Zoomed visible sat loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/...s_to_display=20


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Kraig
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97102 - Sat Oct 01 2016 05:15 PM

I have a quote on my office door, that while it wasn't meant to apply to meteorological models, it does seem to apply here: All models are wrong, but some models are useful! I've got allot of respect for those folks that by gut and experience, can tweeze out the useful information while looking through the static. The NHC staff have had a rough year of trying to look through the static to glean out the useful tidbits! I believe by tomorrow night we will start to see much clearer. I heard this morning that all NWS offices east of the Mississippi river were doubling the releases of sounding balloons to ever 6 hours, instead of every 12 to get a better handle on how the trough was going to set up.

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--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Kraig]
      #97108 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:05 PM

The GOES-13 satellite that provides a lot of the sat photos for the floater images of Matthew is having an outage now, recon also had to abort the mission due to mechanical failures . GOES-15 has a very very edge view of Matthew without much detail, but it'll be an interesting semi-blind night to determine if motion started back up if GOES-13 doesn't come back up soon.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97110 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:10 PM

Very, very disconcerting. Why is this hugely important satellite having issues at this time?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97111 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:16 PM

Per ESPC:


*Topic:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Data Outage

*Date/Time**Issued:*October 2, 2016 0035Z

*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*October 1, 2016 2315Z **

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD

*Length of Outage: *TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) is currently
experiencing an anomaly that prevents all data from being received at
ESPC. Engineers have been notified.

*Contact Information for Further Information:* ESPC Operations at
ESPCOperations@noaa.gov at 301-817-3880**

*Web Site(s) for applicable information:* N/A

This message was sent by ESPC.Notification@noaa.gov


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Random Chaos]
      #97113 - Sat Oct 01 2016 09:35 PM

You can use GOES 15 (West) imagery

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestfullir.html

Click the area where Matthew is at, very warped and very infrequent frames from that angle, but at least it is something. (Check timestamps)

Microwave from the NRL does show the eyewall replacement happening.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97114 - Sat Oct 01 2016 10:10 PM

Nasa site seems to be getting imagery back in ow, from 9:45PM EDT Northwest motion now.



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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97116 - Sun Oct 02 2016 01:34 AM

At 02/05Z Matthew has taken a track almost due west for the past few hours. That ridge to its north is not breaking down as quickly as anticipated. Certainly an interesting storm to track.
ED


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97119 - Sun Oct 02 2016 07:47 AM

Hello, You guys have a great site here... I live on Cayman Brac, just a little west of Matthew's track. What's your thoughts on that new western movement??

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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97120 - Sun Oct 02 2016 07:58 AM

Way too soon to tell. Hurricanes tend to wobble, "stair step", loop and even move in odd ways when the steering currents are weak.

Also, the last few frames show at least some northerly component.

Edited by Doombot! (Sun Oct 02 2016 08:01 AM)


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Doombot!]
      #97122 - Sun Oct 02 2016 08:24 AM

Thanks for the information. Everyone here on Cayman Brac are quite concerned. As some may remember, we had a hurricane called "Paloma" that hit the Brac Nov. 8th 2008, it was also a Category 4 with cat 5 in gusts. Damages to Cayman Brac and Little Cayman from Hurricane Paloma' amounted to $154.4 million. So we are all a bit on edge about this hurricane. Please' if you guys will, keep me posted on your thoughts.. Thanks again!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97123 - Sun Oct 02 2016 08:33 AM

Today I'm looking to see where it is when it hits 15.0 N latitude, if it gets there further west than forecast, partially west or on 75W the risk for the Southeast (and Jamaica) increases. Regardless much of the convection is on the east side of the storm, so Haiti (and to some degree the Dominican republic) are going to get a lot of it, even if the core stays west of land there.

Recon's position this morning indicate more of a slow west northwest motion than northwest so far. Approx 14.0N 74.5W

On Satellite Long term see http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...&map=county

The motion does seem solidly northwest though, but recon has found no hint of a more northerly turn yet.


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97124 - Sun Oct 02 2016 09:19 AM

Yes, thanks for the URL.. I can see that WNW movement.

I was up at 5 am checking on it's movement, when I saw that NOAA said (NW), that's when I became a bit concerned.. I feel bad for anyone in this ones path.. If you see anything else that you think may concern me, let me know. I'll be keeping this page open, and checking it..

Thanks for keeping me posted.

Linda.
Cayman Brac
Lat 19.7235° N
Long 79.8017° W


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97126 - Sun Oct 02 2016 11:14 AM

The Hurricane Center did not shift the cone at all, just the position, I'm not so sure the east of north motion will happen in the near term because of how the ridge is performing, but overall there is a great deal of uncertainty even in the near term with the slow movement of the storm. (Currently moving west) At the current pace it'll cross 75W before it hits 14N easily, and Jamaica may be in for more than the track map implies.

This big of a storm moving this slow will raise blood pressures for sure, especially with the type of impacts it can have.


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97127 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:02 PM

Moving west isn't, at all what I want to see... Now I am really worried..

I do not ever want to see another Cat 4 hurricane hit Cayman Brac again. Paloma really did a number on the Brac.
There wasn't a lot of media coverage at all. The Government shut this little Island down for 1 year.. If you didn't live or work here, you didn't come here.

Here's a good friend of mine's website. https://www.flickr.com/photos/courtneyplatt/albums/72157609576323778/page1 Shows a lot of the devastation that Paloma caused. The population here on the Brac is only around 1500, about 80% of all homes and businesses lost most or all of their roofs, and around 60% of complete roofs and homes just blew away. Our home was breached by a huge pine tree, we lost half the back, and west side of our home, and all the roof, and my husband and I were both in the house when it was blowing away around us..

95% of all power polls when down, the whole Island was on generators for 4 months. Every leaf of every tree was gone, the trees looked like they had been chopped off at around 14 ft high. It took a year for Electric Power to be completely restored after Poaloma hit here.

Just 3 months before Paloma, Aug 30, 2008 Hurricane Gustav hit the Brac at a Category 3.. Wow' do I have stories to tell...

No, I never want to see another hurricane, ever..

Thanks so much for the updates... Keep them coming..

Linda!

Edited by CaymanBrac (Sun Oct 02 2016 12:06 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97128 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:07 PM

Even with a slow west northwest drift, I haven't seen any evidence or models that the Caymans are in play for a major hit here. Keep a close eye and make your usual hurricane preparations...At this point, nothing is pointing to anything but an eventual northward trek toward the Bahamas...THEY and Jamaica are the ones needing immediate preparations for a major storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97130 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:27 PM

Yeah... Thank you, I really appreciate the update.

I keep hearing Hurricane Matthew will turn totally north at some point, but an interesting question would be (When)?

I do hope it turns sooner than later. And I do know just how unpredictable these storms can be., and this ones been a tricky one.

Thanks again!
Linda


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97132 - Sun Oct 02 2016 01:40 PM

Recon passes are showing the system is recovering a bit today, seems to have stronger winds again. and moving northwest..

edit: 2PM advisory out with 145MPH winds and moving northwest. Should have waited a minute more to post. It looks like it'll pass just east of Jamaica.

If it continues with the northwest motion, though, it'll cross 75W around 14.5N which then again would put it more west... This will be a very long week of tracking.



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Abaco Weather
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97134 - Sun Oct 02 2016 02:45 PM

First, thanks to the board- it's an invaluable resource that I use every hurricane season. You guys do a great job.

Posting from Abaco in the northern Bahamas. Consistent model runs seem to be forecasting the centre of circulation to be more and more east of our area. Based on the erratic current movement of the storm though- how accurate are those model runs until we start to get a decent bearing on the storm? I keep seeing westward movement and some models- the GFS in particular- really worry me.

What do you guys think?

--------------------
Dennis and Floyd 1999, Frances and Jeanne 2004, Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Abaco Weather]
      #97135 - Sun Oct 02 2016 03:05 PM

Here's the simulated IR Satellite from the point closest to Abaco Thursday morning. (East of Abaco, but pretty much directly over Nassau)



That far out it could be over it just as easy as east of it, if I had to choose I'd rather be on the west side of the storm, but a cat 4/5 at the time is no joke. Prepare for a hurricane.

Conditions based on that would start do go downhill midday Wednesday, and last through the night into Thursday afternoon. Based on windspeed probabilities from the hurricane center you'd have a 20% shot to get hurricane force winds, and 65% chance for Tropical storm force winds. It wouldn't take much of a west shift for those chances to go way up. You'll likely be under a hurricane watch tomorrow night, and warning sometime on Tuesday.

Additionally the chances of it stalling near you increase if it does shift west.



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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97136 - Sun Oct 02 2016 04:36 PM

Seems like I see this cane winding up again. Let's all be diligent and take this very seriously. Latest satellite imagery indicates to me a shrinking eyewall and increased convection of the Center of circulation. I see the eyewall compressing and winding up again.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97137 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:17 PM

From Satelitte, looks like it his the 75W mark at 14.7N, still moving generally northwest. I suspect it will move between Jamaica and Haiti, but there's a chance it'll still get very close to Jamaica. Matthew would have to get to 76.2W to landfall in Jamaica, and I doubt it will drift that far.

Conditions typically are worse on the right eyewall (relative to overall motion) and just east of it. For Jamaica, if it were to pass to the east, it would spare the worst of the storm, but they would still get very strong wind from the north and flooding rainfall. The north shore of Jamaica would get the brunt of it. Haiti would get the strongest wind and surge, but not the extremely destructive eye of the storm.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97138 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:47 PM

The whole issue of Mathews Siamese twin has been an anomaly. I hope I see weekening of this convection. I think it has disappaited a bit in the last few hours. Haiti will take less of a hit. This is a strange feature. One to be studied, for sure. Do the experts on this site have any opinion yet on this far eastern persistent convection?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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SpeedwayCocoa
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97141 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:35 PM

Hey Folks, I haven't been around n awhile, but I was with this website when it was hosted at sostet.sys. LOL


My question... I am a manager of a Convenience store 10 miles from the Cocoa Beach cost in Cocoa. The UKMET model has as done well over the years, and it currently has the storm running into Brevard County. I read other blogs saying it will pass 75 miles from Cape Canaveral. Either way I'm in for a mess. Is Tuesday the "Magical" day when we will know just how close to the coast it will come?
I have live in Brevard County since 1985, and have seen the good bad and the ugly. I would love some intelligent input,

Thanks, Dave


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97142 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:55 PM

I have been a member since 2004 and have learned a great deal from the moderators and the Mets on this site. One thing is for certain, and that is the outlook of 4-5 days and beyond is usually a bit uncertain. Even though the center is not expected to strike the Brevard coast, the effects of Mathew with wind, and beach erosion could be substantial if it comes close enough to the coast.

Keep an eye on this site for the opinions of the experts and also Jeff Masters blog on wunderground.com (and the NHC of course).

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97144 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:06 PM

Evening!

I would say to not focus on individual model runs, particularly model runs that are more than 3 days out. Could Matthew hit Florida? Sure. Personally I think the odds are very low for a direct Florida strike. I haven't had a chance to really look at the current synoptic patterns, There's a gulfstream sampling the upper air data in the region, so that data will be incorporated into the upcoming model runs. (Again, I'm not sure when the data is incorporated, the 12Z runs?)

You really should trust the NHC, and with a storm this powerful, you really want to stick with the experts.

Just my two cents.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97145 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:41 PM

Well, it looks like the last three hours, Matthew has been moving a tiny but east of due north at least according to the Vortex data reports.. The IR shows a wobbling motion but more a true north. Pressure is holding steady around 943 mb. I wonder what is influencing Matthew?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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SouthGAwx
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97146 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:14 AM

Quote:

There's a gulfstream sampling the upper air data in the region, so that data will be incorporated into the upcoming model runs. (Again, I'm not sure when the data is incorporated, the 12Z runs?)





Data from the NOAA G-IV mission was assimilated by the 00Z GFS run, and made available to all other meteorological centers for input into their 00Z models as well. This includes the ECMWF & UKMET.




Take care,
-C.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SouthGAwx]
      #97149 - Mon Oct 03 2016 09:17 AM

While the track has shifted slightly east, then slightly west, Matthew has trended to the east. Remember back on Friday the 3 day forecast position (which normally pretty accurate) put Matt on the east coast of Jamaica this AM, but he is way SE of that position now. I am a bit worried about the slow down, this storm is going to be around all week which means the effects (rain / beach erosion) will multiplied over time. Plus this slow down increases the questions regarding the future track.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: JMII]
      #97150 - Mon Oct 03 2016 09:45 AM

Today is a day of monitoring, the NHC track seems pretty good in the short term with a lot of uncertainty in the Day 3-5 range. Monitoring general movement. Haiti is already receiving crazy amounts of rain, only the far western tip will likely get major hurricane winds, but the rain will be throughout.

Recon shows the eye has stabilized, so it has another shot at strengthening today.

If you are interested in speculation about the future, (and remember it is speculation) see the forecast lounge.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97163 - Mon Oct 03 2016 03:39 PM

A state of emergency has been declared for Florida to open up response resources.

Florida Emergency management website http://www.floridadisaster.org

Additionally Dvorak T #s support a cat 5 again.



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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97164 - Mon Oct 03 2016 04:26 PM

North Carolina also - http://www.witn.com/content/news/State-o...-395708931.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97165 - Mon Oct 03 2016 04:44 PM

Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

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Bev
Weather Guru


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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Abaco Weather]
      #97167 - Mon Oct 03 2016 05:21 PM

@Abaco Weather Thank you for keeping an eye on things. We have a home on the creek in Casuarina and many friends there and in Cherokee.
Keep us posted, thank you.

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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