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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Hur Nicole Lounge
      #97088 - Sat Oct 01 2016 03:17 AM



The wave pouch originally associated with the tropical wave that became Matthew, P39L, has hitched a ride with another easterly wave, and an area of low pressure has been forming for several days now. This feature has just been added to the NHC TWO and given 20% odds of developing within 5 days into a depression or named storm.

While likely to stay out to sea if it forms, this feature could become instrumental in the future track of Matthew. Off and on for a couple of days the 'hot' CMC and a few others have been advertising the possibility of this wave developing... most recently today's 0z run of the ECMWF now develops this system as well .. and the CMC and a few others find it assisting in opening up an escape route for Matthew to follow out to sea once he has moved north out of the Caribbean.

As of 3AM AST Oct 1, this wave extends from around a 1010mb low which is located just north of 14N 50W, out to to about 23N 53W, and has been moving WNW at roughly 12 knots, but recently appears to be slowing and making a turn more to the north.

While maximum sustained winds are close to tropical storm force, upper level winds are incredibly unfavorable for near-term development into a tropical cyclone, but may become much less unfavorable over the course of the next few days, especially if the Low is indeed starting to track more poleward. This will further complicate recent model runs on Matthew, and may indeed give him an exit.

This wave and associated area of low pressure is not yet Invest tagged, but may soon be, and the title will be updated as necessary.

As of Oct 2cd, this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 98L. The title has been updated.

Convection and organization greatly improved during the overnight hours of Oct 3rd and upon the 11AM Oct 4th update with NHC, advisories have begun on Nicole, the 14th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Nicole is a hurricane as of Oct 6th. The title has been updated.


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Oct 12 2016 10:34 PM)


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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: C Atlantic P39L - Matthew Path [Re: cieldumort]
      #97089 - Sat Oct 01 2016 03:30 AM


Model run map credit: TropicalTidbits.com


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: C Atlantic P39L - Matthew Path [Re: cieldumort]
      #97090 - Sat Oct 01 2016 07:30 AM

Believe or not Matthew is getting a lot of attention from local MET's here in Southern New England.When looking at a map of the east coast we do stick out.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 98L - Matthew Path [Re: cieldumort]
      #97117 - Sun Oct 02 2016 02:58 AM

Wave with pouch P39L is now an Invest - 98L. Several models' runs continue to suggest some development, along with a tendency to offer Matthew an assist out to sea.



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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 98L - Matthew Path [Re: cieldumort]
      #97201 - Tue Oct 04 2016 07:50 AM



Invest 98L is now a 35 knot mostly tropical cyclone. NHC has its hands full at this time, so we will have to wait and see if they begin issuing advisories on this in real-time, but this cyclone is noteworthy in that most recent model runs have not developed it, and as such, fail to incorporate any influence it may have on Matthew's future track. Some prior runs have shown it developed, as it now is, helping create a weakness in the ridge, northeast of Matthew, for him to be attracted to.

The next name on the list this year is Nicole.


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cieldumort
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Re: Trop Storm Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97212 - Tue Oct 04 2016 11:50 AM

Invest 98L became Tropical Storm Nicole, already producing winds of around 50 MPH at the time of the first NHC advisory. It is not officially anticipated that Nicole puts any kind of a dent in the ridge for it to matter much, and so the NHC actually calls for a sort of meandering after Day 3, followed by a winding down at sea. From their first advisory:
Quote:

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days, the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus.




If Nicole becomes significantly stronger than its present 1005mb/45 knots, and especially if after 2-3 days no meandering has commenced, then there may be something more going on that could possibly influence Matthew. Until then, a mere fish spinner with a slight chance of impacting Bermuda.


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madmumbler
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Re: Trop Storm Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97297 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:00 AM

Um, wow. that 11am track on Nicole is crazy. I had to turn on the track line on the NHC's site to figure it out. That's just...wowl

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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cieldumort
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Re: Trop Storm Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97357 - Wed Oct 05 2016 10:17 PM


Above: Nicole Oct 5, 2016 2319z 995MB 70 MPH



Nicole is strengthening tonight, and may become a hurricane by morning. The relative organization and intensity of Nicole is mostly of interest to us for its potential to influence the future track of Matthew; a stronger Nicole could try to pull Matthew east or northeast, or conversely, depending on how Nicole interacts with the Highs to its west and east, nudge Matthew even further south after his visit to the southeast coast. All speculation. Models are windshield wipering over these future nuances.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97406 - Thu Oct 06 2016 02:06 PM



Above: Hurricane Nicole Visible Image Oct 6, 2016 1737z

It was starting to look like Nicole may have reached hurricane strength overnight last night, but there has been precious little data to verify that with. However, as of 2PM EDT today, conventional satellite has become undeniable, and NHC has upgraded Nicole's status to an 80 MPH Cat 1 hurricane, the sixth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the title has been updated.

Being that Nicole is indeed significantly stronger than virtually all models forecast, the question of potential unexpected influences on the future track Matthew increase. In fact, the distance between one another are just close enough to potentially result in some degree of a Fujiwhara effect (binary interaction).

Nicole is officially forecast to stay out to sea, but a few model runs that were working with a stronger version of this cyclone and had not sent it racing off to the northeast later in the period, hinted at potential for a Bermuda and/or Nova Scotia impact, either as a strong tropical cyclone and/or as a potent hybridizing cyclone.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
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Re: Hurricane Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97487 - Thu Oct 06 2016 11:15 PM

And without most people noticing, Nicole Cat 2

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1439
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hur Nicole Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97547 - Wed Oct 12 2016 10:44 PM

A lot of plausible phase spacing of Nicole transitioning into an asymmetric and possibly just about post-tropical, but still very stout hurricane-force cyclone, and then back into a large, Major tropical cyclone later in the period. If verified, this would add even more to this historic October's ACE, and be stunning in its own right.




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