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Archives >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Matthew Pounding Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge, Flooding and Wind
      #97460 - Thu Oct 06 2016 09:39 PM

11PM EDT Update 7 October 2016
Locally record-setting deadly surge event may unfold tonight into Saturday from Georgia to N Carolina. Levels were running around 3-5' above normal during low tide, with many locations expecting high tides around 1-3AM local times. In addition to surge, very heavy rain into the double digits is expected over large parts of the Carolinas as Hurricane Matthew tracks the coast, occasionally making landfall along the way, resulting in life-threatening flash floods. As of the last NHC advisory, maximum sustained winds are still 105mph, with higher gusts.


4PM EDT Update 7 October 2016

Matthew has very fortunately stayed just offshore of eastern Florida, keeping the worst winds at sea, and limiting storm surge potential along the coast there. Despite this, sustained hurricane force winds with gusts over 90 have occurred, and dangerous storm surge has been underway in places like St. Augustine and Daytona Beach.

Life-threatening storm surge will continue tracking up the coast with Matthew. Recently, the highest level of storm surge since 1898 at Fernandinda Beach, located about 50 miles north of St. Augustine, has prompted a Flash Flood Emergency. Later tonight and into Saturday, very surge-prone locations from Georgia to the Carolinas will be at risk for a record surge.

Original Entry

Above: Major Cat 4 Hurricane Matthew & Significant Hurricane Nicole

Life-taking Major Hurricane Matthew is now slowly exiting the Bahamas and taking direct aim on Florida, right up and either side of the coast, into Georgia and then South Carolina. Matthew is an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Recently West End Bahamas recorded a sustained north wind at 103 MPH gusting to 124 MPH, but was also offline for over an hour during much of the worst of it, and winds there could have even been higher.

Tonight, Matthew was looking to be attempting an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, but this is in question. However, the areal coverage of hurricane force winds and strong tropical storm force winds does appear to have been expanding some, which is not good. The larger area of powerful winds are pushing more water onshore and will worsen the deadly storm surge threat, as well as extend the duration of damaging wind gusts well inland right up the state, and into Ga & SC later this weekend. Hide from the wind. Run from the water.

There has been strong model support for keeping Matthew around past the coming weekend. Speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Forecast Lounge.

There has been increasing model support for Nicole interacting with Matthew and possibly pulling a Fujiwhara, and also possibly hanging around. Speculation on Nicole can be found in the Nicole Forecast Lounge

Finally, this is shaping up to be a once-in-a-lifetime event for the southeast starting tonight. Flhurricane members want it to not be your last. Stop by often and check in. Let us know how you're doing and let us know about how things are in your area Conditions related to Matthew.

Stay safe

NHC KEY MESSAGES
Quote:


1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.





Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording
Flhurricane Matthew Webcam and Radar Recordings

WindyTy flowing wind and wave maps

Matthew Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
<a href="www.portcanaveralwebcam.com" target="_blank">Port Canaveral Webcam</a>

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)


> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Jacksonville, FL Area Media:

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: cieldumort]
      #97492 - Fri Oct 07 2016 01:52 AM





Hurricane force winds are now just starting to come onshore around the Treasure and Space Coasts. These images are velocity scans taken at 1:11AM EDT and 1:10AM EDT respectively (logged on my phone in central time). The old eyewall this morning is just barely hanging on, and rotating west within the new eyewall. Combined with a blowup of convection in the northwest quadrant, this appears to be the reason for the current wobble - not yet certain if it is a more meaningful shift - to the left. As the coastline has started to bend west of north and the cyclone continues tracking west of north, it is possible that Matthew just intermittently rakes the coast and points just inland off and on all night with punishing squalls. Dangerous. However, Matthew's big story might be the ever-increasing fetch of storm surge being created by his expanding windfield. Some things to keep an eye out for tonight.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: cieldumort]
      #97497 - Fri Oct 07 2016 02:28 AM

Just saw WESH news futurecast with the eye coming way inland at Canaveral. How misleading. How about updating that with more recent data, WESH?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: cieldumort]
      #97509 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:54 AM

trident pier (Port canaveral) water levels:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8721604

+4 ft already


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97519 - Fri Oct 07 2016 08:01 AM

New Smyrna Intracoastal flooding on Hurricanetrack's tower cam http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?243

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97527 - Fri Oct 07 2016 10:46 AM

The west eyewall is now hitting the coast off and on (since about New Smyrna Beach). Some of the Daytona high rises have damage, Places north may get part of the eyewall also.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Moving into Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97536 - Fri Oct 07 2016 04:00 PM

Jacksonville Beach and especially Amelia Island is getting serious high time storm surge flooding, Georgia/Savannah susceptible as well, these areas haven't seen significant storm surge in over a century.

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: Matthew Offshore Heading Toward Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge Threats [Re: cieldumort]
      #97539 - Fri Oct 07 2016 11:42 PM

Looking for a page that summarizes maximum wind gusts by location and rainfall totals

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Offshore Heading Toward Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge Threats [Re: cieldumort]
      #97540 - Sat Oct 08 2016 04:15 AM

Category 2 Matthew's eyewall is now coming ashore near Hilton Head Island with radar-indicated gusts to 100 MPH and potential gusts of over 125 MPH just offshore. Winds like these can damage well-built structures and are life-threatening.



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Bloodstar
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Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Matthew Offshore Heading Toward Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge Threats [Re: cieldumort]
      #97541 - Sat Oct 08 2016 05:37 AM

What's is the angle for the radar beam? Keep in mind, even at a beam angle height of only 0.5 degrees, by the time the beam only 25 miles out, you've already reached a beam height of 1,800 feet or so above the surface. So the wind velocities from doppler radar returns are not at or near the surface.

It's just an important thing to consider when interpreting doppler radar imagery.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Matthew Offshore Heading Toward Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge Threats [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97542 - Sat Oct 08 2016 08:57 AM


Myrtle Beach cam http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd

yeah mattehw's south side is *That* dry now, it shows on satellite also, looking at microwave it appeared to start degrading shortly after it passed Freeport in the Bahamas, and just fell apart just as it was nearing Jacksonville. The momentum is what's keeping it up now and driving the surge.


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Matthew Offshore Heading Toward Ga-SC-NC With Storm Surge Threats [Re: cieldumort]
      #97543 - Sat Oct 08 2016 01:19 PM

Dangerous storm surge and inland flooding event is underway in portions of South Carolina. Mark Suddith of HurricaneTrack.com is reporting live on the surge at Murrells Inlet From NWS Charleston, numerous Flood Warnings have been issued and reissued as inland flooding continues after 5-13" of rain has already fallen over a large area. Moderate to heavy rain continues falling, and as Matthew is undergoing some extra-tropical transitioning while inland and interacting with upper-level winds and a boundary, much of the strongest winds are now occurring on his backside. With the super-saturated ground, trees will easily come down, presenting additional risk to life and property.

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