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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Hurricane Otto
      #97560 - Tue Nov 15 2016 02:54 PM

At 15/18Z, Invest 90L was located in the far southwest Caribbean Sea at 11,9N 78.0W drifting west northwest at 5 knots. 90L is disorganized at the moment with winds of 20 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. SSTs are 30C and windshear is very light. Initial models slowly develop a modest tropical cyclone with little movement this week and eventually move it westward into Nicaragua in the Nov 22-23 timeframe, but the exact nature and movement of this system has yet to be determined.

HNC tags the development potential at 80%, so if it does make it that far, the next name on the list this season is Otto.
ED

Title updated to reflect upgrade to "Otto" - Ciel

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2016 07:38 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression 16 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97566 - Mon Nov 21 2016 07:39 AM

Tropical Depression 16 has formed in the far southern Caribbean Sea about 300 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua, near 11.2N 79,4W with winds of 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. Central pressure is 1002MB and the tropical cyclone is currently stationary. Easterly windshear is expected to slowly relax and with SSTs of 29C additional intensification is likely - at least to strong tropical storm status in a couple of days. Perhaps quicker as small storms can ramp up rapidly.
A building ridge well to the east will eventually nudge the system to the west with landfall in Nicaragua and rapid weakening thereafter and a remnant sytem moving into the eastern Pacific. The next name on the list this active season is Otto.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Otto [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97568 - Thu Nov 24 2016 08:11 AM

At 24/12Z, Hurricane Otto was located near 11.0N 79.2W or about 70 miles north of Limon, Costa Rica. Maximum winds near the center have increased to 90 knots (Category II) and central pressure has dropped to 976MB. Otto is moving to the west at 7 knots. Landfall will occur later today in southern Nicaragua near Punta Gorda. Although some weakening is expected with landfall, Otto should retain strong tropical storm strength since much of the track across Nicaragua will be across Lake Nicaragua. Otto will exit into the eastern Pacific basin early Friday morning and retain identity as Tropical Storm Otto.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

Total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches with significant flooding and mudslides can be expected in northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. A storm surge of two meters is likely in the landfall area.
ED


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