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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Outlook for 2016 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96194 - Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM

My thinking has been going back and forth some, but I am comfortable enough with 17/9/3 (including Alex and Bonnie, which we have already had). This is on the high to very high end of most mainstream forecasts, and is admittedly not with great confidence.

Some analog years that stand out more to me than others include: 58, 66, 73, 88, 92, 98, 03 and 2010.

Whether or not the season ends up as 'active' as 17/9/3, I also expect a much much greater-than-average risk of systems affecting the southern through eastern United States - as well as much higher-than-average odds that any systems which do push inland, to be able to maintain further inland.

For Hawaii, the West & Southwest: Not to the same extent as in 2015, I also put Hawaii, the West and Southwest US at a higher-than-average risk of impacts from tropical cyclones (more likely in the form of flash flooding, waves, etc., than any sort of direct hit- but still possible)..

For the North Atlantic: 17/9/3 final. With above average threats, overall.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2016 [Re: cieldumort]
      #96195 - Tue May 31 2016 11:50 PM

Actually, TSR increased their forecast to 17/9/4 a few days ago and I'll post more on that in a few minutes so you are in good company (I guess) It was enough for me to nudge my totals to 12/6/2.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2016 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96196 - Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM

A total of 18 site members (one more than last year) participated in the 2016 version of our annual exercise to guess the level of activity in the Atlantic Basin in terms of Total Number of Named Storms / Number of Hurricanes / and the number of those hurricanes that reach Major Hurricane status (Cat III or stronger). The guesstimates ranged from a low of 12 named storms (myself and three others) to 17 named storms by cieldumort - and that is probably the smallest range that we have ever had. It means that all of us expect an above average number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year - and we have already had Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie. The average of all inputs was 14 / 8 / 3. The forecasted number of hurricanes ranged from 6 to 11 and the number of major hurricanes was 2 to 5.

From the pros:
On 4/14, CSU: 13/6/2 with an ACE of 93
On 4/15, TSR: 12/6/2, however, on 5/27 TSR revised their forecast to 17/9/4 - a rather significant change and they based this increase primarily on the NAO trending negative. They increased their ACE from 80 to 130.
On 5/27, NOAA: 13/6/3 (averages of their range of numbers)

This thread is now closed, however, at the end of the season we'll check back with the actual season totals and see if we were in the ballpark. Thanks to all of you that participated!
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2016 - Final Tally [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97570 - Sat Nov 26 2016 09:35 PM

With the likelihood that the 2016 season has ended its time to see how well we did - and on average it was the best forecast that the site members have ever had! The final total for 2016 was 15/7/3 and your average forecast was 14/8/3 which is outstanding! stormtiger won the numbers game with a supurb forecast of 15/8/3. EMS at 14/8/3, doug at 13/7/3 and Mike C at 14/8/3 all had scores of -2 and tied for second place - all excellent forecasts. gsand, M.A., JoshuaK, vpbob21, Kraig and IMTechspec all had great scores of -3. NOAA came in at -3, CSU at -4 and TSR and I both were at -5. In about a month I'll post my initial forecast for the 2017 season. Thanks once again for all of you who participated this season.
Cheers,
ED


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