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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2017
      #97574 - Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM

About a month ago it was difficult to identify a suitable analog year for the 2017 tropical Atlantic activity and it still is - no real firm indicators one way or another, however 1984 (13/5/1) is starting to emerge as a possible analog year. After starting with a weak La Nina, ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to exist through most of 2017 in the tropical east Pacific. I'll start with 13/5/1 for 2017 and adust the numbers as necessary when the start of the season gets closer. Those numbers would suggest that 2017 would be an above normal season in the Atlantic basin - but its early. The current ridging pattern in the subtropical Atlantic is keeping SSTs on the warm side this winter (so far). 1984 did feature some late season storms and if the pattern holds, 2017 might do the same.

Once again we will keep this thread open until the season starts on June 1st and you can input your own guesstimates on the 2017 numbers until then - and revise them as often as you wish. As a group, CFHC did a fantastic job last year on the seasonal totals - best ever.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97576 - Fri Jan 06 2017 05:51 AM

Another analog year that is emerging is 1996 (13/9/6) so I'll adjust my outlook to 13/7/3.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 900
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97592 - Sun Mar 05 2017 09:35 AM

Not making prediction yet. But I am intrigued by the weather on the west coast this year and a similarity with the pattern there in 1968-69. I know 1969 brought 13 storms and Camielle. It seems that the tropical Atlantic this year would be supporting higher than normal sea temps and a more robust tropical high pressure ridge which would lead to a more vigorous season. Waiting with interest for the May predictions by the usual entities.

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doug


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SouthGAwx
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Georgia
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97597 - Thu Mar 16 2017 01:51 PM

12/6/3

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 900
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97598 - Tue Mar 21 2017 10:55 AM

11/7/4

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doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97599 - Fri Mar 24 2017 12:31 PM

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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gsand
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97603 - Sat Apr 01 2017 01:02 PM

12/5/2

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004
2017 Forecast- 12/5/2


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 900
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97604 - Tue Apr 11 2017 11:38 AM

TSR on 4/5/17: 11/4/2 with two US land falling TS. ACE is at 67...next update is 5/26 with final seasonal forecast

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doug


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3553
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97605 - Thu Apr 20 2017 02:56 PM

13/6/3

(Arlene may happen today)


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: MikeC]
      #97607 - Fri Apr 21 2017 07:37 AM

16/7/4

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DanMcEntire
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97609 - Thu Apr 27 2017 12:56 PM

Quote:

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits




This is a great resource!

--------------------
The best free weather website ~ WeatherAlerts.info


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 772
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: DanMcEntire]
      #97610 - Sun Apr 30 2017 11:40 PM

18/9/5

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 32
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97611 - Wed May 03 2017 12:23 AM

13/3/1

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Wingwiper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: Florida 29.05N 82.50W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97612 - Mon May 08 2017 10:08 PM

13/7/3

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Rode out Charlie on Sanibel Island 2004


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 150
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97613 - Thu May 11 2017 09:31 AM

17/9/4

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 900
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97614 - Thu May 11 2017 01:44 PM

amending to 11/5/2

--------------------
doug


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Ohio
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97615 - Thu May 11 2017 11:33 PM

15/6/3

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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 56
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97616 - Fri May 12 2017 05:54 PM

15/4/3 Wanted to go low, but it's been a strange year. Doesn't mean they'll be bad, may all miss us again, hit New York. We'll see.

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2015 Forecast - 11,6,3


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