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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General 2017 Model Watching
      #97697 - Thu Jun 22 2017 09:06 AM

This is the topic for nebulous model watching on systems not yet formed (or even remotely trackable in some cases) North Atlantic Models/Tropical Tidbits

After Cindy, the GFS hints at a wave in the central Atlantic for next week, but nothing solid. The euro shows nothing GFS Para and CMC also show nothing, although the CMC hints at something with the area between 40-45W, but none of the other models do anything with this area.

So in short the next 2 weeks seem quiet so far, if anything new shows up this is the place to post about it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97699 - Tue Jun 27 2017 05:44 AM

There's wave coming off Africa that has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days that the Hurricane Center is mentioning in hte outlook. Although it could develop, odds are it won't. and if it does, it wouldn't last across the Atlantic. We'll keep an eye on it though.

GFS loses it by Friday (and never really develops it), Euro never really develops it, GFS Para never develops it, CMC does not develop it. The 12Z runs before this showed a bit more development, which is likely what the NHC outlook was based off of.

Long range, next week seems slightly more likely for development of something else in the Eastern or Central Atlantic, but nothing very firm right now.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97700 - Wed Jun 28 2017 06:51 AM

The National Hurricane Center has dropped the wave chances off the Outlook, leaving the quiet week. The GFS shows something maybe in the Central Atlantic mid to late next week. but there are no other models supporting that yet.

So likely next week may be quiet as well, but not sure on that yet.


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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97701 - Fri Jun 30 2017 07:08 AM

The GFS (6z) and really only the GFS (and to a dergree the Parallel) are showing a wave/torm crossing the Atlantic near the northern Leewards a week from today, but passes by to the north, Just east of Cape Cod July 15th, then eventually into Newfoundland. as a storm nearly the entire time. Para is simialr although it gets torn apart closer to the Islands, Euro doesn't really show it developing.

At that far ahead in the long range, you can't take anything really from it other than watch to see what happens with the wave next week. Strength/position at that range can be thrown out.

Experimental Tropcial Genesis Map




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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97720 - Thu Jul 06 2017 01:14 PM

GFS is showing a wave currently over africa developing in the Central Atlantic and going over the Leeward islands a hurricane on July 15-16, going west over Puerto Rico through most of the Bahamas then landfalling (as a hurricane) near Juipter, FL on the 20th.

Parallel GFS, CMC and euro does not develop this. So this scenario is VERY unlikely right now.

Very far out, but it means even after TD#4 comes and goes, there will likely be more to watch.


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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97721 - Fri Jul 07 2017 03:15 AM

Model runs tonight (TD#4 dissipates in all of them)

The new wave currently has multiple model support for strong development.

0z Euro starts to develop the wave currently over Africa in the Central Atlantic around July 12th, then it becomes a strong hurricane and goes through the Lesser Antilles July 16th (moving slowly as it crosses!) and ends the run July 17 as a major hurricane just east of the Virgin Islands.

0Z GFS starts to develop it moving west in the Central Atlantic on July 12th, has a major hurricane in the Lesser Antilles on July 15th, (slightly further south than the Euro) Gets disrupted by Hispaniola, and goes between Jamaica and Hispaniola on July 19th, then clips western Cuba and moves into the Gulf (weaker)

GFS Para does not develop it.

CMC develops it but loses it.


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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97725 - Sat Jul 08 2017 09:14 AM

Model runs for east wave:

GFS Para doesn't really develop it and smashes it into South America.

0z Euro isn't developing it either.

GFS has it as a hurricane over the leewards friday night into Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday July 18th, over Cuba on the 19th, moves through the western Bahamas on the 20th, gains strength and Landfalls near Wilmington NC on July 21st as a major hurricane, cuts inland through north Carolina, over DC on Sat the 22nd, and moves quickly though New England. (the prior 0z run had the system slowly moving up the spine of Florida starting July 20th as a major) -- Reminder that far out, especially with a system that hasn't developed yet, it doesn't mean much other than something may be worth watching that week, more interested in how it trends over time and the upper air steering pattern.

In short GFS is being hyperactive (again), something to watch but nothing guaranteed, similar to what TD#4 was.


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Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97726 - Sat Jul 08 2017 01:36 PM

and the 1zz GFS keeps it weaker and moves west all the way through the Caribbean into the Yucatan. (huge difference from North Carolina last run)

The trend is weaker now,and with other models being weak as well, that's the more likely scenario at this point, but still nearly 2 weeks our.

Another tool to look at is the ensembl member surface pressure map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0 which shows how large the spread is with the GFS members.



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