Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 65 (Nate) , Major: 83 (Maria) Florida - Any: 93 (Irma) Major: 93 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
General 2017 Model Watching
      #97697 - Thu Jun 22 2017 09:06 AM

This is the topic for nebulous model watching on systems not yet formed (or even remotely trackable in some cases) North Atlantic Models/Tropical Tidbits

After Cindy, the GFS hints at a wave in the central Atlantic for next week, but nothing solid. The euro shows nothing GFS Para and CMC also show nothing, although the CMC hints at something with the area between 40-45W, but none of the other models do anything with this area.

So in short the next 2 weeks seem quiet so far, if anything new shows up this is the place to post about it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97699 - Tue Jun 27 2017 05:44 AM

There's wave coming off Africa that has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days that the Hurricane Center is mentioning in hte outlook. Although it could develop, odds are it won't. and if it does, it wouldn't last across the Atlantic. We'll keep an eye on it though.

GFS loses it by Friday (and never really develops it), Euro never really develops it, GFS Para never develops it, CMC does not develop it. The 12Z runs before this showed a bit more development, which is likely what the NHC outlook was based off of.

Long range, next week seems slightly more likely for development of something else in the Eastern or Central Atlantic, but nothing very firm right now.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97700 - Wed Jun 28 2017 06:51 AM

The National Hurricane Center has dropped the wave chances off the Outlook, leaving the quiet week. The GFS shows something maybe in the Central Atlantic mid to late next week. but there are no other models supporting that yet.

So likely next week may be quiet as well, but not sure on that yet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97701 - Fri Jun 30 2017 07:08 AM

The GFS (6z) and really only the GFS (and to a dergree the Parallel) are showing a wave/torm crossing the Atlantic near the northern Leewards a week from today, but passes by to the north, Just east of Cape Cod July 15th, then eventually into Newfoundland. as a storm nearly the entire time. Para is simialr although it gets torn apart closer to the Islands, Euro doesn't really show it developing.

At that far ahead in the long range, you can't take anything really from it other than watch to see what happens with the wave next week. Strength/position at that range can be thrown out.

Experimental Tropcial Genesis Map




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97720 - Thu Jul 06 2017 01:14 PM

GFS is showing a wave currently over africa developing in the Central Atlantic and going over the Leeward islands a hurricane on July 15-16, going west over Puerto Rico through most of the Bahamas then landfalling (as a hurricane) near Juipter, FL on the 20th.

Parallel GFS, CMC and euro does not develop this. So this scenario is VERY unlikely right now.

Very far out, but it means even after TD#4 comes and goes, there will likely be more to watch.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97721 - Fri Jul 07 2017 03:15 AM

Model runs tonight (TD#4 dissipates in all of them)

The new wave currently has multiple model support for strong development.

0z Euro starts to develop the wave currently over Africa in the Central Atlantic around July 12th, then it becomes a strong hurricane and goes through the Lesser Antilles July 16th (moving slowly as it crosses!) and ends the run July 17 as a major hurricane just east of the Virgin Islands.

0Z GFS starts to develop it moving west in the Central Atlantic on July 12th, has a major hurricane in the Lesser Antilles on July 15th, (slightly further south than the Euro) Gets disrupted by Hispaniola, and goes between Jamaica and Hispaniola on July 19th, then clips western Cuba and moves into the Gulf (weaker)

GFS Para does not develop it.

CMC develops it but loses it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97725 - Sat Jul 08 2017 09:14 AM

Model runs for east wave:

GFS Para doesn't really develop it and smashes it into South America.

0z Euro isn't developing it either.

GFS has it as a hurricane over the leewards friday night into Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday July 18th, over Cuba on the 19th, moves through the western Bahamas on the 20th, gains strength and Landfalls near Wilmington NC on July 21st as a major hurricane, cuts inland through north Carolina, over DC on Sat the 22nd, and moves quickly though New England. (the prior 0z run had the system slowly moving up the spine of Florida starting July 20th as a major) -- Reminder that far out, especially with a system that hasn't developed yet, it doesn't mean much other than something may be worth watching that week, more interested in how it trends over time and the upper air steering pattern.

In short GFS is being hyperactive (again), something to watch but nothing guaranteed, similar to what TD#4 was.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97726 - Sat Jul 08 2017 01:36 PM

and the 1zz GFS keeps it weaker and moves west all the way through the Caribbean into the Yucatan. (huge difference from North Carolina last run)

The trend is weaker now,and with other models being weak as well, that's the more likely scenario at this point, but still nearly 2 weeks our.

Another tool to look at is the ensembl member surface pressure map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0 which shows how large the spread is with the GFS members.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97770 - Mon Jul 31 2017 06:09 PM

I normally will not bring up a single model run. The 12Z Navgem is troubling. It is the only model (I see) at this time showing any development within 120hrs. Late last week it did hint at Emily, but then dropped development in the later runs. Were watching [popcorn].

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: M.A.]
      #97780 - Wed Aug 02 2017 02:29 PM

Today's 12Z Euro is showing a tropical storm developing off Africa Friday, and potentially developing into a hurricane in the central Atlantic on Monday. GFS does not show it currently. Something to watch later in the week into next week.

It's also showing a system near the Yucatan popping up next week. If this persists over the next day or so, things likely will start ramping up toward mid August.

Euro shows a leeward hurricane hit in the morning of Thursday August 10th and a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche approaching the east coast of Mexico.

From the euro, the wave crosses over Puerto Rico as a hurricane on Friday, August 11th, then moves into the Dominican republic the next day (The model run ends there).


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97784 - Thu Aug 03 2017 01:49 AM

Models are picking up on the eastern Atlantic wave. 00 GFS has a strong system making landfall around GA/SC late on 8/16. With so much troughing over the eastern US it's hard for me to believe a storm could get that far west, but who knows. CMC has this system as well. NHC is giving this a 50% chance of development within 5 days. We'll see what the Euro comes up with shortly.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97842 - Thu Aug 10 2017 03:37 PM

The 12Z Euro starts to develop a system on 8/17 east of the Lesser Antilles, then strengthens it fairly aggressively going through the Leewards on 8/18, then runs into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and weakens, but emerges over the southern Bahamas on 8/20. I think this system comes out of the wave currently near 30-35W (or maybe the one behind that, hard to tell). So we may have something to track next week.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97851 - Mon Aug 14 2017 10:23 PM

Strong model support for the wave behind 91L over the African continent. NHC already giving this 5-day chances for development at 20%, pretty impressive for a wave still about 2 days from leaving the coast.

12Z Euro is furthest north, moving it well north of the Leewards and then approaching Bermuda as a hurricane at the end of its run on 8/24.

18Z GFS moves it across the Atlantic into the Lesser Antilles near Guadeloupe on 8/22, strengthening quickly over the NE Carib until it runs into Hispaniola on 8/24, moves pretty much over the length of Cuba but emerges over water late 8/25 then moves north over Florida on 8/26 and 8/27.

With 91L, 92L, future 93L and more waves behind over Africa, we should have a lot to track over the next couple weeks.

Edited by vpbob21 (Tue Aug 15 2017 01:55 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #97903 - Wed Aug 23 2017 04:22 PM

I probably wouldn't make a post about it if it were any other model than the European, but that model has a wave exiting the coast of Africa late Saturday and develops into a tropical storm almost immediately after getting over water, and into a hurricane moving through the Cabo Verde islands. It has been showing this for 3 runs in a row now. No other model has this wave so I don't know if the Euro is on to something or just out to lunch, but we'll see.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Ohio
Re: General 2017 Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #98003 - Sun Aug 27 2017 10:27 PM

Another strong wave leaving the African coast (I think this is the same one I referred to in my post above) has strong model support to develop from the globals. 12Z CMC and 18Z GFS track it west to west northwest then develop a break in the ridge in about a week near 50W causing the system to move NW and N into that break. 12Z Euro on the other hand builds the ridge west and keeps the system moving west to just north of the Leeward Islands at the end of its run in 10 days. NHC gives this a 40% chance of development in 5 days. Looks like another system that has potential to be a long track Cabo Verde storm but we'll see.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 22 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 6760

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center