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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
EMILY Lounge
      #97761 - Mon Jul 31 2017 01:56 AM



A well-defined, non-tropical area of low pressure that developed off of a rare summer cold front dropping into the Gulf has been showing some signs of acquiring sub-tropical to tropical characteristics, and as of July 31 07z has NHC odds of 40% now (up from 30% last night).

There are a few things that can happen here.

The official expectation is for 98L to cross Florida with an implicit 60% chance of not developing. Alternatively, it may actually miss the exit, and linger in the eastern Gulf a while - to sit and spin down, or sit and cook, or just sit in place, until finding a new path out. The main point being, if 98L does not fly out the exit hatch laid down for it by its parent trof, it's likely to end up in a COL for a bit, which would open 98L up to those other possibilities.

Most models strongly suggest that 98L will, however, cross central Florida as some kind of compact Low - and at near-gale to storm-force intensity. This is a small system, and so it is possible that it could affect a relatively small area with even greater impact, perhaps similar to how October 2011's Invest 93L did.

As of 31/1000Z, Invest 98L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression SIX, and the title has been updated accordingly. And at 1200,
TD was named, Emily.
- Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 31 2017 07:56 AM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97762 - Mon Jul 31 2017 07:00 AM

Looks like it will pass directly over or very near us in Gulfport, FL within the next couple hours or so.

Since midnight we've had an inch and a half of rain.

49th Street South, Gulfport FL Weather Station


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97763 - Mon Jul 31 2017 09:23 AM

She is now a TS.Lots of rain and some wind for Central Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97764 - Mon Jul 31 2017 09:34 AM

As of right now we have had 3.6 inches of rain. The wind is just now starting to pick up. Egmont Key has had a gust of 37mph, the Skyway Bridge has seen 38mph.

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Gulf of Mex 98L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97767 - Mon Jul 31 2017 11:59 AM

Skyway Bridge has been closed as of about 45 minutes ago due to 58mph gusts and sustained winds of almost 40. Saw pictures of people stuck on it...should have closed it earlier.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: EMILY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97768 - Mon Jul 31 2017 03:20 PM

There are no other scenarios except one which Emily survives; Emily is directly under the upper level trough axis and any attempt to remain west of the base of the trough or axis would induce a northerly shear and should it rush on out ahead of the trough, a SW shear will be induced which later in the forecast period that's exactly what happens as the long wave trough over the eastern US fills and the upper ridge out west and the upper ridge over the Atlantic temporarily rebuild heights over the SE USA before the next major shortwave moves in and lower heights and re-deepens the aformentioned trough. The upper players are not in place for a COL scenario. The upper air at this time is progressive and anomalously deep for this time of year. Currently as of 3 pm ET, Emily is located on radar between Wimauma to its west, Keysville to its north, Bradley Junction to its NE, Duette to its south. There is some precipitation associated with the system but very light at this time and there is no precipiation at its center. Emily is moving east at about 10 mph but appears to have slowed a bit over the past hour. More precipitation is to the north of Emily but it is associated with a stationary front. Short term NAM has this system continuing to move east and then northeast out to sea where our eastern US longwave trough will escort Emily out to sea. Emily is not the smallest cyclone I've seen, but she's spinning along nicely. That said, Emily is elongated from WSW to ENE on radar and the streamline analysis out of NWSFO MLB confirms this as well. You can make a case for Emily interacting with the stationary front nearby given that too would be an area of lowest surface pressures. VAD winds out of TBW are no greater than 15 knots from the north at this time. Y'all have a nice day!

Edited by berrywr (Mon Jul 31 2017 03:38 PM)


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