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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97821 - Mon Aug 07 2017 02:33 PM

Euro is back to showing development of 99L, this time north of the Caribbean as a Tropical Storm in about 76 hours, and it moves generally west, keeps north of the Bahamas at 144 hours out and slowly starts to curve north by 168 hours out. No landfall, but cuts it close to the Outer Banks,.

The 12Z GFS does not develop it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97829 - Tue Aug 08 2017 10:44 AM

Euro shows a developing storm off the east coast next week (Development starts around Saturday), but does not make landfall and recurves it out to sea.

6Z GFS does not develop 99L at all.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97832 - Wed Aug 09 2017 06:18 AM

This morning is no different than the last run, with the consistancy it is very likely that the system will stay out to sea, we'll keep monitoring it in case thus changes, but as of now there isn't much reason to go against the idea of a recurve which is good news for the east coast.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97835 - Wed Aug 09 2017 02:47 PM

12Z euro showing development still, but recurving it similar to earlier runs. The system has a fairly decent center, but no persistent circulation. Chances have gone back up to 50% for 5 day development.

GFS, however, still does not develop it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97839 - Thu Aug 10 2017 05:26 AM

This morning the Euro ahs stopped developing this system, the energy with it remains offshore, however. The GFS also shows no development.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97840 - Thu Aug 10 2017 12:16 PM

When the sun set on 99L last night, Wednesday Aug 9, a tight low level circulation was evident, and for several hours deep convection fired in association with it. But as the night (and shear) wore on, most convection became displaced from the incipient low level center, and by the time an ASCAT pass made it over, the fledgling disturbance had degenerated back into a sharp wave.

Model support has fallen apart on 99L within the past day, but it has been and remains a tenacious wave. Just this morning it already appears to be trying to consolidate a low level circulation again, with a little convection attempting to hold.

As models have mostly shut off the entire basin for the next ten days to two weeks, which given the higher sea level pressures is somewhat understandable but may very well be overdone, this could be producing a bias to miss the smaller and less pronounced features that only need 'a break' to develop. 99L would certainly qualify.

Should 99L not develop, or develop late, it might pose more of a threat to the US later on, as it would be less likely to recurve sooner.


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JoshuaK
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97844 - Fri Aug 11 2017 01:09 PM

I'm seeing two distinct circulation areas for 99L at the 15:45 UTC timeframe. The first appears to be an LLC centered at about 22.2N and 65.8W or on the western edge of the convection. The second looks to be a mid-upper level COC and appears to be centered at roughly 22.2N and 63.2W.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TD EIGHT Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97846 - Sun Aug 13 2017 06:13 PM

TD8 has become Gert, the seventh named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Lounge title will be updated accordingly. Officially forecast to max out as a 65 MPH storm at each of the following plots, it is possible that Gert also attains hurricane status, even if only for a while between them.
Quote:


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 28.1N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 29.3N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 31.1N 72.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 32.9N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 35.1N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 39.8N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 45.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED




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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR. GERT Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97856 - Wed Aug 16 2017 10:56 AM

Gert is attempting to be declared the first Major Hur of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even though the most recent advisory has Gert as a 90MPH hurricane, the cyclone appears to be in a powerful intensification phase, possibly rapid, and the 90MPH advisory estimate is almost certainly much too low.

Most recent satellite derived Current Intensity estimates as follows:
Quote:


CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08161158
SATCON: MSLP = 964 hPa MSW = 98 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 93.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 105 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 160 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.4 knots Source: MW

Recent Member Estimates

ADT: 965 hPa 85 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG161115
CIMSS AMSU: 965 hPa 89 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08161052
SSMIS: 962 hPa 96 knots Date: 08161158




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