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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97912 - Thu Aug 24 2017 08:07 AM

Quick model rundown:

6z GFS Possible Cat 4 landfall Saturday Morning just north of Corpus Christi, then sits near San Antonio and rains itself out. Unbelievable flooding.

0z Euro landfall near Corpus late Friday night, Cat 2 Hurricane (Note Euro is already too weak based on the 986 mb recon)

0z CMC Rides up through Brownsville Friday night and stalls out near San Antonio. Rain rain rain. (also already too weak)

6z HWRF Cat 3 954 mb near Port O Connor at early Saturday morning, then stalls out.

6z hmon Firday night cat 2 near S. padre Island (This model is already too weak also)


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JMII
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97918 - Thu Aug 24 2017 01:12 PM

Well that ramped up quickly. Last night it was a bit sloppy but beginning to align itself. Shear dropped off as the other low pulled out of the way which allowed the system to rotate a large mass of moisture around its core. So now we are looking at a possible Cat 3 making landfall in TX, then stalling inland dumping huge amounts of rain over the weekend in an area that floods easily. The NHC's new graphics package looks good with the added wind speed radius showed.

Still trying to wrap my head around it being 25 years since Andrew.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Psyber
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97920 - Thu Aug 24 2017 01:22 PM

Possible Cat 4 :/

I know they're saying lots of flooding however I don't think the problem is storm surge. The rapid increase in strength will not create a gigantic amount of storm surge versus a CAT 3 or 4 spending days at that strength and really churning the seas.

With the current NHC projecting that it's going to stall just past the coast, THAT seems to be the worst of this. Dropping a foot and a half to two feet of rain will be the worst of all of this if it happens IMO.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #97922 - Thu Aug 24 2017 03:03 PM

As slow moving as Harvey likely will be Storm Surge will still occur, and probably be prolonged and pile up. Especially if it stalls near or just at the coastline. If anything it could be higher in areas than they are predicting. If it were ramping up quickly AND moving quickly then it would be less, but ramping up and crawling is a near worst case.

12Z GFS: (Pressures initialized too high)
landfall Saturday morning, Cat 3. stalls just inland until Wednesday! and then moves northeast inland.

12Z Euro Landfall Saturday morning Cat 2 (obviously not strong enough based on new pressures) Exits out into the Gulf Monday, then second landfall in western LA on Wednesday, cat 3. Rain and huge coastal impacts all along E. Texas and Louisiana.

12Z HWRF Landfall early saturday morning as a cat 3. stalls just inland.

3k NAM has pressure down to 873 (record Cat 5) before landfall, but is not a tropical model.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97925 - Thu Aug 24 2017 09:06 PM

Brownsville Radar is picking up on Harvey.



www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/tx/brownsville


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97931 - Fri Aug 25 2017 07:30 AM

Morning model runs:

6zGFS: Cat 3 landfall near Mustang Island early Saturday morning. stays just inland until Monday, out back into the Gulf, second landfall just south of Galveston late Tuesday, not clear of Texas until Friday.

0z Euro Cat 3/4 landfall Saturday, back over water monday, Restrengthens Cat3 landfall near Galveston Wednesday. out of Texas by late Thursday.

6Z HWRF Cat 3 landfall just north of corpus early morning Saturday. exits back into Gulf Monday.

6Z Hmon Cat 4 landfall on Corpus Christi very late Friday/early saturday, back over water Tuesday.




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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97936 - Fri Aug 25 2017 10:25 AM

Quote:

Morning model runs:




None of those are good scenarios! This predicted stalling is pretty much a worst case situation. Most tropical systems get caught up in a front or other weather feature that quickly sweeps them away. Combined with being cut off from the warm water they tend to die inland quickly. That doesn't seem to be case with this storm

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97953 - Fri Aug 25 2017 05:42 PM

I'm just going to say this; Admin can delete if they want. I just heard with my own ears on TWC that they didn't have mandatory evacs for Corpus Christi. Is this correct? Are we looking at another Katrina scenario? It was some kind of general talking but they kept talking over him; but I heard him say "We should have evacuated earlier."

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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kspkap
Registered User


Reged: Sat
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97958 - Fri Aug 25 2017 07:43 PM

Colleen,
I heard it also. He said "This is not good. They waited too late." Traffic was not moving.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #97962 - Fri Aug 25 2017 08:18 PM

They just repeated it. Makes me sick to my stomach. Did no one learn ANYTHING from Katrina? I'm watching TWC and seeing people in Houston (and CC) try to evacuate. A little too late. SMDH.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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txwxlearner
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97963 - Fri Aug 25 2017 09:05 PM

I am hopeful it is better than it first sounds.

New Orleans is almost at sea level with a lake on top, canals all around, and needs sump pumps during the "good times". Much of Corpus Christi raises in elevation quickly from the coast. Given the terrain and how fast the Hurricane grew in strength, I can understand why they didn't want people to get stuck on the roads when the rain bands started coming in like Houston had happen with Rita.


From CORPUS CHRISTI (KIII NEWS) - "As of Thursday, the cities of Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, Rockport, Ingleside, Sinton, Taft, Portland and Gregory have issued mandatory evacuation orders due to the incoming Hurricane Harvey. There are also mandatory evacuations for San Patricio and Refugio counties. The City of Corpus Christi has issued a voluntary evacuation ... Additionally, Bee County, the City of Kingsville and Three Rivers are under voluntary evacuation, according to city officials."


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97964 - Fri Aug 25 2017 09:11 PM

Port Aransas Pier recorded an 89 mph gust with a 74 mph steady wind:

http://www.sailflow.com/map#27.826,-94.579,8,1,536,7

I also see it has been offline a couple hours or so...


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Steve C
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97971 - Sat Aug 26 2017 09:12 AM

My first post. I've been a lurker for years. By way of introduction, I'm a donator here, and I've been following tropical weather closely for 20 years, living in the NASA area south of Houston. An engineer and human factors person by training. I'm a federal investigator of chemical safety incidents.

I guess I'm surprised at the response to Harvey. CNN last night made it sound like thousands will die. There were all of the typical videos on TWC of a wave coming in, shot from knee level. Comparisons to Ike. To Katrina.

This is not a large storm. Hurricane wind diameter was 60 miles at the max. The Texas coast is not below sea level like the bowl of New Orleans, so there is no levee break catastrophe awaiting. For the immediate area of impact just up the coast from Corpus Christi, I'm sure the wind damage will be a concern. But elsewhere, this is a rain event. A BIG rain event because of the stalled forward motion. But a rain event.

Here in the NASA area south of Houston, we have steady thunderstorms at the moment. No wind to speak of. Our worst case scenario (assuming the eye doesn't head back over the Gulf) is a TS rain event like Allison. Now, Allison was really bad, because rising water is a serious hazard. But it is no different than other non-tropical rain/flooding events that have occurred here.


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Kraig
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #97972 - Sat Aug 26 2017 10:07 AM

Quote:

My first post. I've been a lurker for years. By way of introduction, I'm a donator here, and I've been following tropical weather closely for 20 years, living in the NASA area south of Houston. An engineer and human factors person by training. I'm a federal investigator of chemical safety incidents.

I guess I'm surprised at the response to Harvey. CNN last night made it sound like thousands will die. There were all of the typical videos on TWC of a wave coming in, shot from knee level. Comparisons to Ike. To Katrina.

This is not a large storm. Hurricane wind diameter was 60 miles at the max. The Texas coast is not below sea level like the bowl of New Orleans, so there is no levee break catastrophe awaiting. For the immediate area of impact just up the coast from Corpus Christi, I'm sure the wind damage will be a concern. But elsewhere, this is a rain event. A BIG rain event because of the stalled forward motion. But a rain event.

Here in the NASA area south of Houston, we have steady thunderstorms at the moment. No wind to speak of. Our worst case scenario (assuming the eye doesn't head back over the Gulf) is a TS rain event like Allison. Now, Allison was really bad, because rising water is a serious hazard. But it is no different than other non-tropical rain/flooding events that have occurred here.




Welcome... This is why we have learned why this site is so important...We can all learn and be informed about hurricanes without the hype, hysteria and inflated (could I simplify and just say fake in many ways) news!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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txwxlearner
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #97973 - Sat Aug 26 2017 11:30 AM

In the Austin area (east of I-35 which is a big weather dividing line), we have received a couple inches of rain and an occasional gust of wind. Pretty tame for central Texas. Like many to the south and east, our weather concern is having the system stall out with rain, rain, and more rain over a large area and many days.

We use https://hydromet.lcra.org/ to track rainfall, streamflow, and river levels from the Highland Lakes to Matagorda Bay.

We use https://atxfloods.com/ to track local low water closings. "Turn around, don't drown, the life you save may be your own."


(my intro: I am a scientist in the Austin area and have been a lurker since late 1990s and also donate to support this awesome site


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txwxlearner
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Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: txwxlearner]
      #97987 - Sun Aug 27 2017 11:09 AM

Harvey has become an incredible example of inland flooding. For example, the southeast part of Bastrop County has received 18+ inches and at least another 6-12 inches of rain is expected in Bastrop.

The Bastrop County Judge just said during this morning's briefing, "next time you pray for rain, please be more specific" referencing the Texas drought conditions we recently had.


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JMII
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: txwxlearner]
      #97996 - Sun Aug 27 2017 05:53 PM

For those looking for an excellent radar app with rainfall estimates take a look at Radar Scope: http://radarscope.tv/#pro
This was the mobile app that Jeff Piotrowski was using during his EPIC Periscope Live Feed in the car wash (w/the now infamous blue shed) when Harvey hit Rockport, TX. Its pricey for a mobile app since its clearly aimed at professional weather crowd. Thus I figured it might be helpful to the weather junkies on this site to get TV station like radar data live on their phones / tablets.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97997 - Sun Aug 27 2017 07:22 PM

Been using RadarScope for several years at 10 bucks a year. Definitely the best radar app for iPhones or Android, most accurate, up-to-date, and the one I use even at home during a storm.

To go from $10.00 a year to 10 or 15 a month, what does it give in the pro version that we don't have in the whatever version???

I would do it, but need a reason.



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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97998 - Sun Aug 27 2017 07:44 PM

Don't want this thread to become an advert for Radar Scope ;-) but I'll toss in a quick few cents. It is my preferred radar app for mobile. I use GRLevel3 for the PC, and often even find Scope to have an edge over that. As an avid storm chaser who has intercepted countless hurricanes, tornadoes and other weather, the Pro Tier 1 version adding in the dual pane option, animated lightning/radar, as well as up to 20 frames of looping, is of tremendous value. I also pay for Pro Tier 2. Money very well spent. However, for any radar novices, or anyone just looking to save a few bucks, keep in mind that the NWS makes a great deal of radar information available freely, including storm totals. (NWS Houston Storm Total Precip Radar). Click 'Storm Total' in the options bar on the left.

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HARVEY Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97999 - Sun Aug 27 2017 08:22 PM

The new Pro version has an archive feature which has my interest. I could look at radar animations for some time into the past. That is something that has my attention. How many times I wake up and wish I could see our midnight thunderstorms on radar.

$15.00 a month, I spend more than that on beer on most days...

Think I'll upgrade and become a Radar Scope "Pro" user.

Edit: I am already a Pro Tier One user, and have been for many years. It is the Tier Two that I am upgrading to. $14.99 a month or $99.00 a year (no brainer).
Quote:

RadarScope Pro Tier 2

Travel Back in Time 1-Month

We’ve got data in the cloud. Look back 30-days and review every field of radar data we have

Is it Rotating?

Detecting rotation or shear in storms is simple now. We can’t show you where a tornado is (yet), but you’ll definitely know if a storm is spinning

What the Hail?

Wondering what size of hail may be falling? We use a variety of radar products to estimate maximum hail size in storms, then create a set of contours to show where it fell

Multi-Platform Usability

Data is accessible across platforms, transferring from macOS to iOS to Android with up to five devices active at one time

Only $14.99/month or $99.99/year




Having five devices is a big plus as well.



Edited by Prospero (Sun Aug 27 2017 08:28 PM)


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