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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #97882 - Mon Aug 21 2017 07:17 PM

Just made my first donation, kind of embarrassed to put that out there, but I am sure I am not alone.

Also the first time I read the "donate" page which has more information than I expected:

Site_Donations_and_Thanks

Looks like 2017 has been pretty slim for donations. Like a lot of people who enjoy this forum, I came in during the Charlie, Frances, Jeanne period of 2004. That was a good year for donations I see!

Let's not wait until another crazy hurricane year like 2004 to support this very important forum!

OK, remember Frances? The screenshot below was at the moment we were feeling the strongest effects in Sun City Center where I lived on September 5th, 2004.



Look how large she was? I forgot! What a giant!

Now as I look at what is left of 92L I think I better go water the plants in my backyard...




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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97883 - Mon Aug 21 2017 08:31 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Quote:

Only slow development of this system is anticipated during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.




My question is:

This system is not very far from Florida now. I've been watching the sats and it sure appears to be moving at a somewhat respectable speed. Or at least the front part of it. So where do these "next several days" manifest into the forecast? On a typical day I'd watch thunderstorms on the satellites move from where 92L seems to be now and watch them cross Florida within a day, sometimes in a single afternoon.

The NWS 8:00 pm statement has no reference to how fast this is moving. I must guess it is moving very slow. Right?


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97885 - Tue Aug 22 2017 09:47 AM

Quote:

My question is:

This system is not very far from Florida now. I've been watching the sats and it sure appears to be moving at a somewhat respectable speed. Or at least the front part of it. So where do these "next several days" manifest into the forecast? On a typical day I'd watch thunderstorms on the satellites move from where 92L seems to be now and watch them cross Florida within a day, sometimes in a single afternoon.

The NWS 8:00 pm statement has no reference to how fast this is moving. I must guess it is moving very slow. Right?




It looks like regardless of development (just lowered by NHC, again), 92L or whatever it becomes stays trapped a few days below high pressure to its north, but trapped while still offshore of the southeastern US. Good and bad, there. On the one hand, models suggest it stays offshore, on the other, you have a weak tropical trof drifting about over very warm waters.

That said, winds in the near term are hideously unfavorable for development (again), due to nearby upper level lows and outflow from "Harvey." So, any tropical cyclogensis that may yet occur would probably get delayed for another (another) couple of days, and by that time a long wave sweeping off the southeast coast would probably scoop up and maybe merge with whatever it is that still exists or has come of 92L.

There's a small chance that 92L slides further west than expected, but in doing so it would probably get blasted by high shear for even longer, and could also be disrupted by land interaction.

In summary, 92L tracks west = lower odds of development. Hangs offshore of the southeast = best chance may be Fri/Sat, and then up the east coast or out to sea.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97886 - Tue Aug 22 2017 09:50 AM

My personal assessment of this system this morning is that the focal point of energy is near 28N and 78.5W and it seems to be moving northward with limited convection. It seems to be responding to fringes of the flow around the trough to its north. The energy that has been trailing south and southeastward the focal point is now being interdicted by the outflow from former Harvey and is likely to dissipate. It would be very surprising to me if this system actually regenerates as it is relatively weak in the context of the other systems influencing it.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97897 - Wed Aug 23 2017 09:58 AM

Another episode of my commentary on this ill-defined system. NRL-Monterey has listed the focal point of the system to be 25.8 N -81.6W and a satellite review confirms that location is just northwest of Florida Bay and that there is little visible evidence of a point of low pressure being there. There is visible evidence of some circulation at the northern extreme of the wave just north of the coordinates I posted yesterday in the Atlantic which is gathering some convection. The short story here is that the system is ill defined indeed. But it is still worrisome. If in fact there is some point of lower pressure where NRL has located it that is cause for some concern as that is over the GOM and as Harvey continues to develop and move away, the shear over that area will decrease considerably and convection east of that point has increased markedly since yesterday. so we must still be vigilant regarding this system.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97913 - Thu Aug 24 2017 08:43 AM

Not much to see here. This will not be another Emily. Any development in the GOM at this time is interdicted by the outflow from Harvey causing shear in the TStorms that are prevalent near the location of the low. I was able to visually see them off shore this morning and observe the blow off of the upper levels in the direction of the high level winds from the NW over them. This is confirmed in the latest RGB in which the blow off to the south and east is visible.

--------------------
doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97932 - Fri Aug 25 2017 08:59 AM

As expected with the consolidation of Harvey and its movement to the NW the shear from its outflow has decreased over the low in the SE GOM adjacent to the SW Florida coast. Signs of this began to appear yesterday as a vigorous line of thunderstorms moved off the coast between Charlotte Harbor and the mouth of Tampa Bay and continued this morning as T Storms in the GOM increased and a consistent drizzly rain has begun to fall from the dense overcast, each of which demonstrates an increase in instability in the atmosphere surrounding the low.
I am intrigued with the NHC's inclusion of "subtropical development" and its increase in the % of actual development. The WV this morning demonstrates that a trough has pushed down the peninsula to just north of I-4 corridor, which in my opinion is why there is more energy surrounding the system and increasing TStorms over the GOM. A similar dynamic developed as Charley moved into this area as a Cat 1 but exploded into a cat 5 in a matter of hours. What was interesting then was as the low deepened over the GOM the NW quadrant of the storm dried up as it moved inland. The center of the storm passed within 25 miles East of my house but we had virtually no rain and diminished winds. All of this is to illustrate that subtropical development could result intensification quickly in this system and not effect intensity but would alter its structure.
Today is a very important day in the future of this system and its effect on mainland US...Will it continue to show organization? Will it continue to develop in place; or, will it begin to move NE along the periphery of the trough and into the ATL as predicted.? Either way a wet couple of days will occur in Southern Florida.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97939 - Fri Aug 25 2017 12:04 PM

92L has got to clear the land mass of FL before anything tropical is going to happen. It looks like its getting blasted by the outflow from Harvey and can't see how it can get its act together under these shearing conditions until Harvey moves well west and 92L gets NE. A front just pushed off NC coast so maybe 92L can sneak under that? Once again an up hill battle here... but we've seen this silly thing just will not go away. Currently bands of rain training from the SW to the NE here in south Florida.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #97940 - Fri Aug 25 2017 12:17 PM

Based on RGB now the low is traversing the state moving ENE away from Charlotte Harbor area toward approximately Vero on the east coast.

--------------------
doug


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97955 - Fri Aug 25 2017 07:05 PM

It appears 92L is just to the east of us in Pinellas County. There is a "band" of storms moving south towards us right now. That is not a typical situation and I am hoping the storms stay in tact till they get here.



Here in Gulfport, we need the rain. For some reason, no matter how much it rains in St. Pete or Pinellas Park, the rain parts over Gulfport as if Moses was praying for a drought in just our backyard.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97966 - Fri Aug 25 2017 09:57 PM

Nary a drop in Gulfport tonight so far. 92L so close, yet so far away...

Harvey is respectable, no doubt, and in the morning we'll see the surge and any wind damage in a narrow path. But this old storm geek is bored after all the hype and going to sleep.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #97974 - Sat Aug 26 2017 12:12 PM

GFS still tries to make something of this before landfall or near miss near Wilmington, NC on Tuesday, although there is no rain over central Florida, most of it is in South Florida or offshore of Naples currently.

Canadian and NAM is the only one forecasting significant strengthening.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #97979 - Sat Aug 26 2017 10:50 PM

92L is looking awfully healthy from my perspective here in Port Charlotte. The Peace River at Arcadia went up 7 inches in one day, the most I've ever personally seen it move. The models have forecast it to move NE for days now, but that hasn't started happening yet. Any thoughts?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97992 - Sun Aug 27 2017 03:14 PM

92L may or may not soon merge with a front, but will contribute to inclement weather along the east coast, regardless. Near-term, 92L looks more tropical than sub-tropical, despite its close proximity to the front.

It is possible that a coming merger or just ongoing symbiotic interaction could serve to result in a developing strong cyclone that rides northeast - mostly just offshore, though possibly impacting the Carolinas hard or a brief period of time while on a likely track up into or passing Nova Scotia. The combined or interacting system may become a meteorological bomb off the northeast at some point, but hopefully while well enough away from New England.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97993 - Sun Aug 27 2017 03:21 PM

Recon's heading to 92L

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98000 - Sun Aug 27 2017 08:45 PM

92L, or now Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (correct?), has been dancing around Florida a few days. We've finally had a little rain in Gulfport, and looks like a little more may come.

But I keep seeing circulation that I always think is the 92L system, but it appears I am wrong. So what is this spinning radar stuff I keep seeing that is so many miles away from what is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten??




Is this an entirely different system of just a "spin off" from the one we've been watching?

Edited by Prospero (Sun Aug 27 2017 08:49 PM)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98004 - Mon Aug 28 2017 06:49 AM

Excellent capture Prospero, you and I are watching the same thing. There's definitely a counterclockwise rotation of the storms over us from Tampa south to Ft. Myers. Watching GRLevelX, I can see the different movement of individual storm cells. They're all moving in different directions, which is unusual. Windy reflects that pattern. The GOES floaters also show very healthy bursts of convection over and just SE of our location, for days now.

https://www.windy.com/?27.744,-82.282,8

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.

Edited by Bev (Mon Aug 28 2017 06:56 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98006 - Mon Aug 28 2017 10:55 AM

if you look back on my posts on 8/22 and 8/23 there were two areas of circulation along the 92L wave...between the 23d and this weekend the one nearest the peninsula and the west coast drew most of the attention. Meanwhile the one to the NE is the one that has met up with the favorable conditions to develop first. The one along the west coast of Florida drew up moisture left behind from Harvey, but has been interdicted by Harvey first and then a trough to its north and not been able to develop a structure. I am still suspicious of this very wet system which has caused dangerous flooding in Manatee and Sarasota Counties these past two days and also drenched Lee and Collier earlier last week. My hope is that as Ten develops it will draw this weather away in the trailing trough that it will pull across Florida and into the ATL in a couple of days. One thing for sure, in terms of tropical development this has been a very interesting week.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98007 - Mon Aug 28 2017 11:04 AM

At this point in the morning, a lot of that circular motion seems to be going away over central Florida and a southwest to northeast banding pattern emerging as the depression begins to drag the energy off to the northeast. Seeing lines of rain/storms now on the radar. I know what you mean about the past couple of days and I believe that was because the low pressure area was stretched across the state like a dumbbell.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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