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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98334 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:53 AM

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98335 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:02 AM

Thursday is the day I think we will know.Very accurate 3 days out.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98337 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:24 AM

Quote:

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.




Probably but they will do so incrementally, they don't like to shift the track left and right back and forth, if the models stay consistant it'll move further right, if they shift back west it'll hold as is. For what it's worth (not too much for Tropics) the Navgem (Navy model) shifted back west this morning over Florida. Really that entire cone should be looked at, not just the center line. Tomorrow they will have a better idea, even better still on Friday, but until the turn happens itself it'll likely be very close.


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98338 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:44 AM

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98339 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:50 AM

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




I think MikeC explained it best in his last post.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98340 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:53 AM

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




Ignore the line. Focus on the cone. Make your plans based on evacuation zones, how secure you can make your home, and how prepared you are to stay there for potentially days without utilities.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]

Edited by leetdan (Wed Sep 06 2017 08:54 AM)


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leetdan]
      #98342 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:20 AM

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not




--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98343 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:28 AM

Quote:

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not







Depending on exact location, probably the surge (depends on approach and exactly where you live and exactly what direction and strength irma is approaching from and if the wind/eye is close enough to drive the field up... Matthew got close but not enough to bring the surge in noticeably to New Smyrna like it did to Flagler Beach north) Of the 3 big hurricanes to be close to central Florida in 2004 Jeanne was the one that did the most surge damage to New Smyrna, but that was with a landfall way south.

When Florida gets under a watch/warning they'll put up surge maps which will help.


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 144
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.93W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98344 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:41 AM

thank you very much Mike!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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raine1212
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98346 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:53 AM

I am trying to so hard to figure out the threat for us here in the 30809 zip code, I know the models change but we keep staying in it. I flood with a bad thunder storm, not really sure how to prepare for this. If someone could please help guide me, I would appreciate it at my old age. Thanks

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: raine1212]
      #98348 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:54 AM

Based on San Juan radar Irma looked to be slightly south of 8AM forecast position, so there was a tiny correction at 11AM.
The British Virgin Islands look to take a direct hit.

Edit: also track shifted east again to mirror the models.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Wed Sep 06 2017 11:00 AM)


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98349 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:05 AM

Yes, I'm watching the TWC. They said it took a little wobble to the south, which is not good for PR or the VI or the BVI.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98350 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:19 AM

Good chance 90% this won't make it west of 82dgW and 60% chance this won't even make landfall in Florida.. This all depends on the speed of movement to the WNW over the next 3 days...Saturday before the turn, it slows down to 5-8mph around 78-79W.. but will it be south of 24N? that's the question right now. The ridge currently will have to build westward by about 80-100miles IMO for this to make landfall in the keys... otherwise right now.. it's looking like Nassua-Grand Bahama(Freeport) and north towards S Carolina by early next week. GFS and Euro coming out in the next 1-3 hours

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98352 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:48 AM

12Z GFS running, Init seems good, reflects BVI issues.

Over Turks and Caicos late Thursday night, cat 4. avoids direct impact with the central Bahamas this time, stays to the south of the rest of the Bahamas (They still get north eyewall though) 40nm southwest of the earlier run at 60 hours. Faster forward motion, also. Jumps noticeably west of earlier run at 66 hours. 50nm ssw of earlier run at 78 hours.

Landfall or very near miss Ft. Lauderdale, Cat 5 midday Sunday, before that Metro Miami in eyewall. Moves north near/over West Palm and back into the Atlantic by late Sunday, then rides just offshore up the coast toward Savannah, GA. landfall, Savannah Monday afternoon, cat 4.



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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 15
Loc: Houston TX 77059 29.60N 95.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98354 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:08 PM

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98356 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:23 PM

Quote:

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.




I have to disagree. The spaghetti plots are fine if one knows how to use them. There isn't any such thing as too much information. It's great for a quick view of what all the models are doing, especially watching the trends over time. It would be ridiculous to base an exact forecast on them. It is also ridiculous to say that information should not be shared. Educate people, don't suppress information.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 15
Loc: Houston TX 77059 29.60N 95.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98357 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:25 PM

Quote:

The spaghetti plots are fine if one knows how to use them.




That is the point of the article. Know how to use them. It's a good read.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98358 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:28 PM

Quote:

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.




Good advice for the general public and a nice summary of the models...I sometimes forget which is which. But around her if you hang long enough it will become apparent which ones to watch and which to ignore. I have known to disregard the Clip and most BAM (now TAB) models for a long time as well as the XTRP. His complaint about being 12 hours old JUST refers to those that were posted by silver. Here (and at Skeetobite) we get them much sooner than 12 hours, but you also have to watch when it was run. Knowledge and experience will help folks wade through the spaghetti!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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flnative
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: 27.8960° N, 82.8466° W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98360 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:35 PM

It's been so long since I was last on here that I had to re-register...(which is a good thing!) Thank you to the creators, moderators & meteorologists for what you all do here.

Should that south(ish) wobble a little earlier result in a close call with the northern coast of PR could that affect a change to the 5pm track update and how will that come into play with the timing of the anticipated poleward movement?


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: flnative]
      #98361 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:50 PM

I've been watching the radar on our local news station and it looks like that was only a temporary wobble...looks like it's going to miss PR with a direct hit by a hair....at least, I hope so.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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