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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: flnative]
      #98362 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:51 PM

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVISTTHO2#history

This weather station is (I would guess) approximately 40 miles from the eye and getting 105 MPH gusts. Pressure still failing but not as rapidly as before.

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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98363 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:57 PM

No change in 12Z GFS run. That is 3 consistent runs. Official NHC track now matches this track.

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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98364 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:58 PM

It looks like that wobble to the South and West was very short lived. Should miss Puerto Rico to the North and East. AVN at15:45 UTC looks like it is already slightly north of PR's latitude.

GFS and CMC 12Z are slightly west again though- not by much. Still riding the east cost of Florida.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98365 - Wed Sep 06 2017 01:01 PM

I see that Irma may become a cat 4 as it nears Fl, why would winds descrease as the storm hits the warmer gulf stream? and is there a maximum wind speed of a hurricane? given the right conditions, what is the max?

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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98366 - Wed Sep 06 2017 01:02 PM

Using the NHC Google plot, and weather.com's interactive radar map, both of which have extreme apparently accurate closeups...Irma will hit the Virgin Islands shortly, 10 miles north of the projected path. it is supposed to pass south of SpanishTown Island, and it hits it dead center.

Hard to say if they are that precise But if so, the good news is the models that have it miss Florida to the East, are further to the north.


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #98367 - Wed Sep 06 2017 01:03 PM

For those of you thinking Irma missing PR look at the PR radar. Link at bottom of page. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98369 - Wed Sep 06 2017 01:25 PM

Weather station linked above appears to have broken after recording a 113 MPH gust, pressures are dropping like crazy now.

Edit: Pressure finally bottomed out at 28.22" @ 2:05 PM... now it is starting to climb back up as Irma moves away from St Thomas Virgin Islands.

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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Wed Sep 06 2017 02:18 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98374 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:22 PM

Key Largo hit by Euro on the 12Z, Sunday morning at Cat 4, out Monday morning near Port St. Lucie as cat 3. Second landfall near Savannah at 132 hours.

most inland part of new Euro:



Goes over basically all of the S. Florida metro areas.


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98375 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:25 PM

ECMWF has now posted . Same as GFS, HWRF, HMON, NHC re Florida.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98376 - Wed Sep 06 2017 03:11 PM

Quote:

Key Largo hit by Euro on the 12Z, Sunday morning at Cat 4, out Monday morning near Port St. Lucie as cat 3. Second landfall near Savannah at 132 hours. Goes over basically all of the S. Florida metro areas.




Population of Dade, Broward and West Palm = 6.7 million people

Per Wikipedia: Because the population of South Florida is largely confined to a strip of land between the Atlantic Ocean and the Everglades, the Miami urbanized area (that is, the area of contiguous urban development) is about 110 miles (180 km) long (north to south), but never more than 20 miles (32 km) wide, and in some areas only 5 miles (8.0 km) wide (east to west). The Miami metropolitan statistical area is longer than any other urbanized area in the United States except for the New York metropolitan area.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98383 - Wed Sep 06 2017 03:23 PM

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.

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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98384 - Wed Sep 06 2017 03:30 PM

Quote:

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.




I've noticed this as well- none of the model runs seem to indicate much in the way of weakening- regardless of the western or eastern bias.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #98385 - Wed Sep 06 2017 03:55 PM

Correct me if I;m wrong,But to be it looks like all the major models are now agreeing on a Miami/Ft Lauderdale landfall.And we are not that far out any longer so....

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98386 - Wed Sep 06 2017 04:04 PM

Are the models still trending east?

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98387 - Wed Sep 06 2017 04:06 PM

Quote:

Are the models still trending east?




Doesn't appear so,looks to me like they have decided on Miami/ Fort Lauderdale.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98388 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:03 PM

Quote:

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.




Most of these models are pretty terrible at forecasting strength with any precision. There is one model which has been much more accurate at strength forecast. I forget which model that is, but the NHC has all the models at its disposal and tries to use the relative merits of each model to come up with the forecast. And remember, none of these going to turn out to be totally accurate.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98389 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:21 PM

The 12Z runs seem to be trending slightly back toward the west. Once we get to the 72 - 48 hour time frame (tomorrow PM for south Florida and Friday AM/PM for central Florida), we'll have a good idea of track reliability. Stay prepared.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98391 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:45 PM

The 18Z run of the GFS will be interesting. Will we see a slight adjustment East? Am I seeing that Irma is currently running just a tad north of forecast?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98392 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:52 PM

18Z GFS is slightly NE of the 12Z Run this one goes over the Turks and Caicos and Crooked Island in the Bahamas, as well as just south of Andros (so far) goes over Bimini Island in the extreme Western Bahamas Sunday morning, east of Miami. Closest approach to west palm beach is 25 miles. Cat 5 landfall just north of Savannah, Monday evening.




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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98395 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:09 PM

18Z GFS shoots the gap between West End and West Palm, as MikeC says above. It also shows deepening to 890 mb at hour 84, which would be #3 all-time if it were to pan out.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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