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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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enterlaughing
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Wisconsin 27.99N 82.46W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98397 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:14 PM

I have family in Winter Haven who are watching the threads move east and think they will be fine. Too many people are ignoring the cone! What can I tell them?

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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: enterlaughing]
      #98400 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:37 PM

The cone is there for a reason. The reason being Irma can fluctuate east or west. Apparently they are not listening to the news as it is reported over and over "PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONE". I for one do not suffer fools gladly! Also, as I replied to someone else tropical storms and hurricanes spawn tornadoes.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: enterlaughing]
      #98403 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:16 PM

Quote:

I have family in Winter Haven who are watching the threads move east and think they will be fine. Too many people are ignoring the cone! What can I tell them?




Hurricane Andrew. Many people went to bed that night thinking the storm was not going to hit them, and not be as strong as it turned out to be. We saw how that turned out. If you are in the cone, you need to be prepared. It doesn't hurt to prepare and not need it. If you choose not to be prepared, there will be nothing you can do.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98405 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:31 PM

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.



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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: enterlaughing]
      #98406 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:58 PM

Charley 2004 in 8 hours increased from 115 to 145 and veered right making landfall 80 miles to the south of where the line said it would. Hurricanes can change faster than they could react. you don't want to be stuck on a road. several semi's were overturned on 95 in Punta Gorda

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98407 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:06 PM

That projected turn to the N is pretty dramatic, I don't think I can ever remember a track forecast like that. Most storms can't stop and change direction on a dime... I would expect a slow gradual turn. For this to verify Irma has to slow down to a crawl, then start moving again at a 90 degree angle. Hopefully we have full radar coverage of this out of Key West because its going to be a Charley like situation where the track could change rapidly within a short time frame - less then the normal 3 hour window of NHC updates.

A little more east of a track will be a BIG difference to S FL if she can just keep her core/eye wall off the coast by about 40-60 miles. Of course that puts our friends in the Bahamas in a much worst situation.

My first floor panels are up. 2nd floor is tomorrow. Along with two other homes I'm assisting. The wife mentioned how familar this felt... we did it almost a year ago with Mathew. It seems we are getting faster at putting up the panels thanks to practice

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98408 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:17 PM

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!

Edited by M.A. (Wed Sep 06 2017 08:23 PM)


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98410 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:34 PM

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!


Bryan Norcross was talking about this on TWC about a 1/2 hour ago. He also mentioned that it looks like the eyewall looks like it's getting a bit larger.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98411 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:42 PM

Anyone know what the record is for hours or days over 180mph? I'm in the direct line for this storm and cannot get over how beautiful it is. On a different note, when was the last time we had 3 hurricanes active in the Atlantic?

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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98412 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:13 PM

I agree with you. I have never seen a hurricane do such a right angle turn as is projected for Irma. It's analogous to a speeding car (Irma is moving fast at 16 mph) coming to a quick stop at a stop sign and doing a hard right turn! I've been watching these things since Donna in 1960.

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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98413 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:16 PM

Quote:

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.






Which of these models do you generally have the most confidence in?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98414 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:24 PM

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!




Double eyewall means it is in an eyewall replacement cycle. the original eye will shrink as an out eye forms that then moves inward and takes over. Usually they lose a little strength during the process.....but probably not this one!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98415 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:24 PM

Quote:

Quote:

18Z HMON Has a Miami cat 5 landfall Sunday morning, and exits Florida near Melbourne Sunday afternoon, clips Cape Canaveral cat 4 and stays just east of the Florida coastline another landfall near Brunswick, GA / Saint Simons island Cat 3/4 Monday morning

18Z HWRF Running also, moves Irma a bit quicker but same path up to Saturday afternoon, shifts very slightly east.

18Z NAVGEM Landfall near Marathon Sunday morning,then straight up the spine of Florida, slightly west of the earlier run.






Which of these models do you generally have the most confidence in?




Honestly, none of them, but it helps to see what the Hurricane center may be thinking. Euro and GFS tend to be the best, but some of the others are good in other circumstances. UKmet, for example sniffed out Matthew's final track a good bit earlier than some others, but didn't do so well with Harvey. I'd go with the official forecast.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98417 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:32 PM

Quote:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

Long range radar from San Juan. Looks like a double eyewall? I cant remember ever seeing this. Of course, I have never seen 185mph+ hurricane on radar either. It looks perfect!




Double eyewalls are usually a sign of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle underway (or at least an attempt). Typically during an ERC, top winds speeds come down, but the radius of powerful winds expands. With a double eyewall there will tend to also be two distinct wind maxima. (An image of this as it looks via recon is currently up on the
Main Page Thread ).

Often once completed, top wind speeds will consolidate and increase again.

This is a fairly common phenomenon, not at all reserved for only the strongest systems, but is always a site to behold.


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 51
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #98420 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:03 PM Attachment (33 downloads)

Didn't hurricane Cleo and Wilma make pretty sharp turns at some point in their lives?

And Cleo's sharp right turn was to go north through Miami (although it approached from south of Cuba, track from WU attached).

Cleo is actually my earliest memory. I was 2 1/2 years old and living in Miami.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!

Edited by mikethewreck (Wed Sep 06 2017 10:04 PM)


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #98421 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:14 PM

We can always hope! I don't remember either of those storms, though. I guess it all depends on atmosphere at this point.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #98422 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:32 PM

In reply to MiketheWreck:

Cleo curved to go north...not a sharp right

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/1964/Major-Hurricane-Cleo

You do have a point with Wilma, but she was an oddity. Slow travel speed in a short run before turning:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/Major-Hurricane-Wilma


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bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas 26.39N 77.09W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #98423 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:49 PM

I would look for trends in actual track over time. For example, is the storm consistently north or east of the forecast points? Hurricanes move in wobbles, not fixed lines.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #98424 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:09 PM

Quote:

You do have a point with Wilma, but she was an oddity. Slow travel speed in a short run before turning




Yep, then Wilma got wacked by a very strong cold front. I've never experienced such a 12 hour weather difference in FL like that. She pretty much hit a wall, stalled, bounced off, then rocketed off to the NE. She had that pin hole eye and crazy low pressure, thus not a "typical" cane at all. Guess maybe she is a good comparison to Irma since this is by no means a typical storm either. Irma is already rewriting the record books.

11PM update is out, small adjustment to the east. The models are really well aligned even at the 4 day point. Normally the spread is much wider, confidence is increasing as the clock ticks down.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98425 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:15 PM

Sounds like what some of us were seeing on the P.R. radar. From the 11 p.m. discussion:

Quote:

Earlier radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D showed a concentric eyewall, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a secondary wind maximum over the northwest quadrant. These phenomena may be associated with some weakening, but since the central pressure hasn't risen much the intensity is held at 160 kt at this time. Moreover, the concentric eyewall has become less apparent in recent radar imagery. Considerable lightning activity has been noted in the eyewall of Irma, which
research has shown to sometimes be a harbinger of weakening. Notwithstanding, low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next several days.




Hopefully, it's the start of a trend.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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