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#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Maria) , Major: 2 (Maria) Florida - Any: 12 (Irma) Major: 12 (Irma)
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Se at 3 mph
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31.9N 49.2W
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24.8N 72.0W
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 3862
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98426 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:35 PM

0z GFS run starts now:

Initialization seems good position wise, pressure wise it's much too high, which is odd and a fair reason to discount some of it, It, stays on track for the first 24 hours (from last run) over Turks and Caicos Late tomorrow (Very slightly east of 18Z run) then 35nm sse of 18Z position at 36 hours.

Gets further west this run but bends up to match the 18Z position, 30nm east of West Palm Sunday Midday, very little shift. 96 hours it's further east than the 18Z run. Ridges appears to erode unrealistically quickly this run, between this and the bad pressure init I think it may be a defective run.

Cat 5 landfall Tuesday morning just south of Myrtle Beach, SC. Way east late in the run from prior runs. This may be a bad run in general because of the problems note. It also takes Jose over Barbuda.

0z UKmet with a big west shift, brief Cuba landfall,, then landfall Big Pine Key Saturday night Cat 4/5, second US landfall south of Everglades City Cat 4/5. Exits the state near New Smyrna Beach, then a third US landfall between Svannah and Charleston Cat 2/3

Doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme, but the UKMET did the best with Matthew last year this far out (for track).



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scottsvb
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #98430 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:44 AM

I doubt the UkMet will verify but GFS/UkMet look decent out to 60hrs... I think this all depends on speed of motion on Irma over the next 3 days as it goes W to WNW... does it make it to 80W by Saturday night... or does it only get to 78-79W and turn then... a faster and more west system will make it to Florida.. anything under 16mph will not make it to 80W

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scottsvb
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98431 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:48 AM

Hmm 0z run of the Ukmet isn't on our page yet.. I'll have to look into that


Update.... ok it finally updated.. yeah into Cuba...but will Euro follow and GFS on the next 2 runs? or will Ukmet join the GFS in it's 12Z run... guess we have to still watch short term movement and models into tomorrow night.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Sep 07 2017 01:00 AM)


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Doombot!
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Bad 00z initialization? [Re: MikeC]
      #98432 - Thu Sep 07 2017 02:07 AM

Mike,

I know you already hit on it, but it looks like bad pressure in several models. 968 on GFS, CMC, Navgem. The 00Z run usually "balances out" the 12Z run, but now everything looking split because of bad data.

Hopefully things can be reran or the 6z has better data because now isn't the time to have the models choke.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98436 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:28 AM

Lounge Reminder ...

It's foolish to consider the spaghetti and make decisions - any decisions - Even if one knows.. like really, really knows, what they are looking at. Forecast errors beyond 48/72 hours can be large. When in the Lounge, extreme caution is always advised.

About the spaghetti.. There is no *one* model that forecasters consider solid gold. Some handle certain situations better than most. And then some that perform poorly in one scenario, outshine in yet other situations. This is why human forecasters rely (still, for now) on some good ol' human brain power, along with weighted averaging super consensus models (models based on models, weighted for accuracy and relevance).

Within models, there are individual members ('ensembles'), and also the 'operational' version of that model. The operational is not the same as the model mean, incidentally. There is also that, and it's called, aptly, the "Mean."

The operational is the standard within that model family, but not necessarily always and every time the best version of that model. So, forecasters also consider the entire sphere of a model's ensembles, and, because this is the Lounge, and we are talking spaghetti, I'm sharing some of the top global models' ensemble runs from 07 0z. to give some idea of how much uncertainty there remains after 72 hours. There really is a lot. Therefore, use this intel to help you not decide whether or not model x or model y gives you warm n fuzzies about not having to worry, but rather an illustration as to why, beyond 72, heck, even 48 hours, one should pay way, way, way less attention to the 'center line,' and far more to the outermost bounds of the NHC Cone of Uncertainty.

What is the Cone of Uncertainty? It is that apparition that surrounds the 'center line' that people often misinterpret to be a region of any impacts, when in reality, it designates the range in which .. get this .. if you don't already know... maybe you'll want to even sit down first ... the Cone of Uncertainty actually 'represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones.'

Did you catch that? In other words, its highly likely that the actual track is not going to be going right down the center line, but rather to the right or left of it (and possibly well to the right or left in some storms - possibly how far left or right? Look at the current NHC Cone).

On to some images of the most recent 07 0z Ensembles on Irma. Again, please use with extreme caution. This is not a forecast. This is a series of model outputs that describe a range of possibilities identified by a parent model.







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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98437 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:49 AM

0Z Euro. trend very very slightly west
Late tonight, over or very near the Turks and Caicos
Landfall, Maimi proper Sunday Morning. Cat 4/5, exits coast near Fort Pierce late Sunday afternoon
Clips Cape Canaveral Sunday Night Cat 3
Another landfall in GA Midway Between Brunswick and Fernandina Beach, FL cat 3 late Monday morning. Stays Hurricane into Georgia until just south of Athens (Milledgeville, GA) Early Tuesday morning.

Note: Euro Run ends with Jose as a major In the SW Bahamas (over andros) approaching Florida, after doing a Jeanne style loop Sep 17th.

HMON mimics the Euro run, Landfall near Mimi Sunday morning, Cat 5, exit near Ft. Pierce hugs coast, Landfall Brunswick, GA Cat 4
HWRF closer to GFS, slight shift east, although not as dramatic as the 0z GFS Cat 3 landfall just north of Charleston, SC.

6Z GFS shifts west 30 miles or so closer to Florida this run, still with the bad pressure init, It goes over Turks and Caicos and crooked Island, and the south tip of Andros Island early saturday morning also. landfall near Charleston, SC late Monday afternoon as a Cat 5.

The 5am National Hurricane Center discussion says it a bit better:
"The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula.

The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively."

That last line is very important.




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Prospero
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Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #98438 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:56 AM

The general agreement in the tracks that I was looking at last night when I went to sleep has been shaken up a bit. Might be an interesting day coming up...

Edited by Prospero (Thu Sep 07 2017 05:40 AM)


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JMII
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Prospero]
      #98443 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:43 AM

Notice her turn seems slower or not as sharp as before. The disagreement in the models is strange considering how tight they were last night. Hopefully those on the west coast of FL are still paying attention, since we can't rule out the GOM yet? Reed Timmer was in Key Largo @ 3AM but plans to relocate north.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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JMII
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98445 - Thu Sep 07 2017 07:29 AM Attachment (205 downloads)

See the attachment... my house is the dot, the line is the current forecast track. It looks like a forecast point!

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98450 - Thu Sep 07 2017 08:06 AM

The whole battle ground can be visualized on the water vapor loop. There are four features impacting where that radical turn will occur and as of right now I think NHC has it right. Feature 1 is the hurricane in the Bay of Campeche which is a block in the southern GOM. 2 is the tropical ridge ,3 is the upper low feature in the Carribean south of Cuba and four is the west to east flow over the peninsula around the periphery of the trough over the SE US. Those features impact each other north of Cuba and south of the Keys as can be scene in the motion of the clouds in that area. That point of contact yesterday was in the Bahamas and it has migrated back west a bit. With Katia hanging out in the GOM for a couple of more days this pattern likely won't change much until the weekend. There is no impediment to Irma continuing all the way to this point of conflict. I am going to focus on this pattern to see if it continues and its potential impact on the future track.

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98452 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:11 AM

Quote:

See the attachment... my house is the dot, the line is the current forecast track. It looks like a forecast point!




I lived there for 12 years.My heart goes out to you and all my friends there.This is it,this is the big one we all feared.Be safe.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98454 - Thu Sep 07 2017 09:38 AM

She is not weakening.For so many years down there people would talk about "What if" or "Can you imagine",now that is happening.One of my many fears is that some of the shelters may not survive these winds.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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scottsvb
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98460 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:44 AM

S Florida gets hurricanes all the time... not 180mph.. but Cat 1-4 (at times)... just think if this would go towards Tampa... still many people there won't leave cause they expect it to miss.. but they do hit the stores and get gas cause of the local media hype of Tampa not being out of the cone...but many that lived here over 10 years have heard a few times of Tampa being in a possible hit zone and they don't get more than squall or nothing at all. Soo many times....

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chase 22
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98464 - Thu Sep 07 2017 10:58 AM

And that's the problem. Tampa Bay is due for a hurricane. They have been lucky far too many times...Charley being the biggest near miss. I do think that the old timers and natives will take a storm of this magnitude seriously though. It's all the newcomers from New York, Boston, and everywhere else that won't take it very seriously.

--------------------
Matt


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98465 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:06 AM

NAM 12Z is not something South Florida wants to see materialize. Appears to move to middle keys, then head just east of due north. Have to see if the other models shift.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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flnative
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: 27.8960° N, 82.8466° W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98466 - Thu Sep 07 2017 11:13 AM

I'm in Indian Rocks Beach (the western most point in Pinellas County) just west of the Tampa Metro area. I can assure you everyone here that I've encountered is taking this seriously. Stores have been cleaned out of essentials for 3 days now, gas lines have been long, etc...

Even with the current forecast track, folks here are most definitely preparing.


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scottsvb
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98467 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:14 PM

Not worried about the NAM model... GFS 12Z still keeps the core of the hurricane offshore but hurricane conditions east of the turnpike.. TS conditions maybe as far inland as state route 27 up thru Orlando keeping west coast fine with high clouds. Like to see if the UKMet keeps its course and Euro go 50-100 miles further west via UKMet before I have any concern of a west coast of FL impact of at least TS winds.

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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98468 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:17 PM

It appears as though the 12Z GFS run has shifted a bit west.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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doug
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98470 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:23 PM

This system is so powerful that it virtually controls the environment surrounding it. My fear is that the statistical models may not be able to factor the potential for Irma to literally over power the customary blocking features to the west and north. That being the case a more westerly point before the turn is still logical and not out of the questionp

--------------------
doug


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AgentB
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Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98471 - Thu Sep 07 2017 12:30 PM

Quote:

It appears as though the 12Z GFS run has shifted a bit west.




Ever so slightly. Looks to be roughly 29.24N 79.31W at the 6Z run and 29.24N 80.0W at the 12Z.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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