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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 120
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98570 - Fri Sep 08 2017 02:32 AM

Latest Euro with another shift west. Getting too close for comfort for us on the west coast. I am under a evac order at 6am and have been trying to decide whether to go or not. Im on St. Pete Beach. If west trend continues Irma will make that decision for me. UGH!!!!

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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98571 - Fri Sep 08 2017 02:33 AM

I see what the NAM is doing, for whatever reason, it's ignoring the trough over AL and MS, and instead is taking the jet off the east coast to pull Irma to the east.

The models have decided to run Irma up the middle of florida for 00Z, Not much time left for anything unexpected to happen, So south florida is looking pretty committed to a direct hit. Will it be east, central, or west of southern florida, that's the remaining question I think?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98572 - Fri Sep 08 2017 02:48 AM

I am taking the day off. My office is in St Pete and I work remote from Orlando. My son and I are going to start boarding up and finish tomorrow. Also going to clean out the garage to make room for the patio furniture. The basketball hoop is going to be taken apart and is coming down.

Does anyone have a decent estimate of the possible range of winds and gusts in Northwest Orlando?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98575 - Fri Sep 08 2017 05:10 AM

Quote:

I am taking the day off. My office is in St Pete and I work remote from Orlando. My son and I are going to start boarding up and finish tomorrow. Also going to clean out the garage to make room for the patio furniture. The basketball hoop is going to be taken apart and is coming down.

Does anyone have a decent estimate of the possible range of winds and gusts in Northwest Orlando?



I just looked up the strongest wind gusts reported in Charley - 106 mph in Orlando. Compare Charley with Irma at landfall then add or subtract forward motion depending on which side of the eye wall you experience. If I had to take a guess, which I am doing, I would say gusts around 125 sustained around 100. Unfortunately I could be way off. I don't think we have a benchmark for this storm at least as long as I have lived in Florida - 45 years

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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WestFLJess
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: dolfinatic]
      #98576 - Fri Sep 08 2017 06:23 AM

Quote:

Latest Euro with another shift west. Getting too close for comfort for us on the west coast. I am under a evac order at 6am and have been trying to decide whether to go or not. Im on St. Pete Beach. If west trend continues Irma will make that decision for me. UGH!!!!




NHC shows an "H" vs "M" around the time Irma gets north to Tampa Bay area. Do you think it will be worn down significantly by then?

I have to work and run a business in St Pete today. Important work so we don't close until we can't get in or we are ordered away. Will be an interesting AM with this shift West. Hopefully zone B won't evacuate, otherwise I am not sure where we will go.

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: craigm]
      #98577 - Fri Sep 08 2017 06:27 AM

Quote:

If I had to take a guess, which I am doing, I would say gusts around 125 sustained around 100.




Seems about right as https://www.ventusky.com graphics (based on the GFS) shows 90 MPH gusts (just outside eastern core). However that model also has the center sitting over Palm Bay at 11PM on Sunday. Move the center directly over Orlando and 120 MPH gusts begin to show up (northern eye wall). The http://www.skeetobiteweather.com graphics show Cat 2 wind field in Orlando.

The 5AM update is a punch to the gut. Model tracks are grouped tightly from up the spine to just on the coast.

Made the call... we are heading to my parents place in Lake Placid, FL. Worried about trees coming down and being trapped in a rural area vs the 'burbs but a few miles could be the difference between days without power and WEEKS without power based on previous storm experience.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Fri Sep 08 2017 06:52 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98578 - Fri Sep 08 2017 06:40 AM

06z GFS appears to have shifted just a tad west. It's time to start executing the board up plan here in Orlando.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98580 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:42 AM

I notice both the GFS and Euro are spinning up a successor to Irma out in the Atlantic by 10 days, with the longer running GFS bringing it on a more northern but similar track through the Caribbean. Looks to be an "active" active period for the basin for sure.

--------------------
Londovir


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Stephen250
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Londovir]
      #98581 - Fri Sep 08 2017 08:49 AM

I live in Savannah, Georgia.

All of the paths look pretty sure that it's going to hit southern Florida and make its way through the state.

By the time out it reaches Georgia, it will be significantly weaker.

We are considering not evacuating, even though there's a mandatory evacuation tomorrow due to this, dependant on the paths.

If Irma continues on this path and it's correct, what would you guesstimate the wind for Savannah, Georgia?

I'm guessing weak tropical.storm force or less.

I'm praying for y'all down in Florida.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98582 - Fri Sep 08 2017 09:06 AM

Euro and GFS shifted slightly west overnight, actually worse track as it brings more of naples and Tampa into the picture. May nick Cuba like the Euro and Ukmet say, but the conditions in the straits will be ideal for strengthening. It'll be chaotic for sure. If it shifts further west, Surge thread goes way way up for the west coast. The GFS has another hurricane moving in a simialr path to Irma around Sep 23rd (not Jose), although that far out in time is beyond unreliable, it's just an interesting footnote.




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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Stephen250]
      #98583 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:01 AM

You might get 40-50mph winds on squalls..but it looks like the center will be almost 200miles to your west since it will be moving NNW to NW by Monday

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #98584 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:03 AM

Looks like a ever slight shift to the left. I keeps this up those on the lower west coast might need to watch more closely if they`re still down there. The whole state looks like we`re going to get a weather event that will be talked about for some time to come

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98585 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:51 AM

Watching it very closely here in Ft. Myers. Put my shutters up this morning. Local mets are talking about the storm surge, so at least people are aware. Barrier islands like Captiva and Sanibel have mandatory evacuations so hopefully they will get out in time.

Edited by MissBecky (Fri Sep 08 2017 12:07 PM)


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MissBecky]
      #98586 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:06 PM

12Z GFS keeps it slightly west of the center of the state with landfall somewhere between Naples and the Everglades. Regardless, everywhere in this state will feel effects to some degree. Hopefully, some of those more southern tracks pan out and Cuba can take a little energy out of this thing. Stay safe!

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #98587 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:09 PM

So, if the eye goes left of you and you are located on the right side of the eye (no pun here believe me) then the force of the wind is increased by the forward speed of the hurricane. For example, if the eye goes west of Orlando and the hurricane is traveling at 10mph and the wind speed is say 100mph, then you add 10mph to the 100mph a total of 110mph in Orlando, just to use round numbers. Likewise, if the forward speed is 20mph then the total affect would be 120mph in Orlando. This is a Hugh hurricane which will probably spun twisters with much higher force winds around them. Think safety first.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98588 - Fri Sep 08 2017 12:34 PM

Estimating winds in tropical cyclones -

The forward speed addition is already included in the maximum wind speed. You do not add to that. However, if you are on the left side of a tropical cyclone's forward motion, it is reasonable to subtract the forward speed to get the max possible for that side.

Once tropical cyclones are over land, their maximum sustained winds over water tend to show up as gusts, rather than 1-min averages ("sustained").


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98589 - Fri Sep 08 2017 01:05 PM

Thank you for the clarification, very helpful on wind speeds.
I am sure you noticed the NHC center line shown on Fla Radar from this site http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php
a small crimp to the west around upper Marion County, Florida.
Interesting?


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Corkhill1]
      #98591 - Fri Sep 08 2017 01:30 PM

Being blessed so far this morning. Generator that hadn't been run in 12 years started on the first crank. Wawa here has gas and no-ethanol so I filled the gen tank and then all of my spare cans with it (ethanol is horrible for the carburetors). Also got silicon sealer for the tub, a hatchet (mine was broken), 2 nice buckets and a cool pump siphon all at Tractor supply. Got daughter's car filled AND located the long lost bag of wing nuts that will secure my shutters!!! So far, so good. I am just praying that it does NOT get to the west of us. My mom's is now set to be east of the eye which is NOT good. Getting her tomorrow morning!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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JMII.
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: AgentB]
      #98593 - Fri Sep 08 2017 01:50 PM

Quote:

12Z GFS keeps it slightly west of the center of the state with landfall somewhere between Naples and the Everglades. Regardless, everywhere in this state will feel effects to some degree. Hopefully, some of those more southern tracks pan out and Cuba can take a little energy out of this thing. Stay safe!




Another tweak to the west at 2PM. Hope those on the west coast have been paying attention... it sounds like they have.

Had to create a new account my previous one wouldn't log in despite resetting my password (twice in fact).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII.]
      #98595 - Fri Sep 08 2017 02:04 PM

Looks like Cuba will get a landfall.. might take it down to Cat 3.. but will be close.... more like thru it's northern islands. It's starting to look like the bend might happen slightly later, the further west it gets.. wouldn't shock me if landfall isn't up to Ft Myers-Sarasota...but Naples area is current thinking.

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