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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98646 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:08 PM

Quote:

Could change everything




Double landfalls - Irma in Cuba and Katia in Mexico! Irma actually went SOUTH for a bit there, could be a wobble, but she ain't behaving properly. That airport weather station I was monitoring went offline about an hour again, so no ground data on current situation. Models are shifting west again, hugging the western coast of FL now.

From the NHC:
Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt. The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate after 48 hours, moving parallel to the West Coast of Florida and then into Georgia. Mainly because irma's eye has not deviated from its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the West Coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore.

Future forecast positions are Cudjoe Key and Fort Myers.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Fri Sep 08 2017 11:13 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98648 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:18 PM

The convection on the northwest side of Irma towards south Florida has really fired up tonight, usually a sign the ridge may be eroding, expect Irma to slow more and start the turn in the morning or so, it's going to be a nail biter to exactly where it makes landfall, but the surge, check the Inundation map (hasn't quite updated for 11 yet) to check if you are in it or not.

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #98649 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:28 PM

I don't think that those mountains in Cuba are strong enough to keep this from coming our way. I just listened to Dr. Knabb and he's saying the same thing. Don't count on Cuba to keep us out of danger. That being said --- if you're not out of the Keys by now..what were you waiting for? SMH.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98650 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:33 PM

Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98651 - Fri Sep 08 2017 11:56 PM

Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact

0Z GFS, turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.

This is a shift east for the GFS.

0z UKMET has landfall just west of Marathon also (Over 7 mile bridge) then landfall near Ft. Myers Beach. very slight nudge east of last run.



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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98653 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:11 AM

Quote:

Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).


Trust me, I have no expert eye, either. Could be a wobble..my eyes are just tired. I'm just ready for it to be over. Just got an alert on my phone that we are now under a hurricane warning from the NWS. I live in Polk County. Not that I haven't been following it...it's just disconcerting. Now looking at it...it looks like it was a little bit of a wobble.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98654 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:28 AM

Quote:

Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact

0Z GFS, turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.

This is a shift east for the GFS.





I was thinking the models would switch a little east.My money is splitting the state right in the middle of South Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98655 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:53 AM

As we all watch nervously to see where Irma is ultimately going, I thought I'd put out there that for all the grief that the NHC sometimes takes for their forecasts, this advisory from Monday the 4th was pretty darned good when you look at where Irma is at right now and where she's been:



--------------------
Londovir


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #98656 - Sat Sep 09 2017 01:06 AM

Amazing to the degree.. 99% accurate 5 days out

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #98658 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:05 AM

Looks like the 00Z run of the the ECMWF is becoming visualized right now.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 120
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98659 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:20 AM

if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #98660 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:28 AM

Also looks like the close interaction with Cuba is having a weakening effect, at least in the short term. Irma has yet to make the turn.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #98662 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:45 AM

Quote:

if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.




Looks like the ECMWF has shifted west again.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98663 - Sat Sep 09 2017 03:42 AM

Latest ECMWF (model has outperformed others with Irma) strongly suggests that the cyclone will ride along or just inland of the Cuban coastline for at least another 18 hours or so, and on this track Irma would have some significant and ongoing land interaction. The center would be traveling across lowlands at least off and on - possibly continuously -- and the broader circulation wound likely have at least some disruption from hills. But even on this track, the model shows only modest weakening.

The most recent recon pass found that Irma's pressure has already gone up several millibars, likely as a result of this continued westward track - into portions of Cuba. Given the degradation on satellite, along with the weakening noted in the last recon pass, it is possible that the Euro is understating the amount of weakening that will occur. However, keep in mind that once Irma gets mostly to all back out over water, restrengthening will probably commence, regardless.







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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98664 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:04 AM

We just had a strange and very quick burst of wind here in Northwest Orlando with showers moving from the northeast to the southwest.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98665 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:22 AM

I saw several sub 900mb pressure forecasts on one of the GFS model runs earlier. I was using tropicalatlantic.com

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: danielw]
      #98666 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:39 AM

I believe she is making the NW turn as we speak. If so, this would her back over water. Need a few more hours to verify. Is this a zone in Cuba that the US still needs permission to traverse with RECON?

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: danielw]
      #98667 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:40 AM

It is possible that Irma will experience significant weakening if it tracks with a large portion of the center over Cuba. However, the straits are a very warm section of the Atlantic when it makes the turn. Time and direction will tell.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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ObsFromNWFL
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 7
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98668 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:45 AM

Irma appears to be totally collapsing over Cuba on the satellite images.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98669 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:49 AM

I don't think that Irma is totally collapsing, but I am wondering how much of the weakening will be cited in the 0500 NHC update. It might be too late for the NHC to recognize it.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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