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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 67 (Nate) , Major: 85 (Maria) Florida - Any: 95 (Irma) Major: 95 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98698 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:44 AM

I think it's a little west if anything and 6hours faster this run

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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98699 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:51 AM

Quote:

I think it's a little west if anything and 6hours faster this run




Nah it is more north but you can click previous run at 30 and 36 hours and the current 12Z and see the only difference is a little more north but not any west. Just hit current 30 36 then hit previous 30 36

Edited by chance (Sat Sep 09 2017 11:53 AM)


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erc024
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98700 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:56 AM

Looking at recent radar, appears to have taken a turn to the NW. Could be just a wobble or perhaps it's starting to turn ... current radar

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98701 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:22 PM

Model performance history for Irma. ECMWF has performed best. The upgraded GFS (AVNO), not so much.

OFCL is the OFFICIAL forecast track (NHC), and not a model.
TVCN is a Variable Consensus of other models



Image credit: UAlbany h/t Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: erc024]
      #98702 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:24 PM

Appears that way, most NW motion we've seen in a long time. Finally pulling of the coast of Cuba but still riding the barrier islands.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98703 - Sat Sep 09 2017 12:41 PM

Mandatory evacuations now for Zone B in Lee County. If you are in this zone, you need to leave NOW.

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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98705 - Sat Sep 09 2017 01:17 PM

In my opinion the NHC has preformed superbly. I have to say they have been pretty spot on with the forecast tracks and intensity. There have been many times during this that we have heard questions about the tracks they have posted. This all goes back to the quality of the computer models and the Mets interpreting them at the NHC.. Kudos

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: M.A.]
      #98707 - Sat Sep 09 2017 01:25 PM

The 12Z GFS and CMC have come into agreement. The GFS has not changed appreciably since 00Z. Tomorrow night will be quite bumpy for us on the west coast of Florida.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: MichaelA]
      #98708 - Sat Sep 09 2017 01:31 PM

Quote:

The 12Z GFS and CMC have come into agreement. The GFS has not changed appreciably since 00Z. Tomorrow night will be quite bumpy for us on the west coast of Florida.




I live south of you in Sarasota going to go stay with my daughter who is not in any zone for flooding down the road. I just wonder how much damage this storm will make?

Yes we have had close calls before but this one i see no way out of. Bordered up as much as i could now it is wait and see mode.


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98709 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:05 PM

Eye wall now showing on this site Florida Radar http://flhurricane.com/flradar.php
It will be Interesting to see the turn as it relates to the NHC track. Be Safe


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PA101
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98710 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:07 PM

Most of the eye now visible on Key West WSR-88D.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98711 - Sat Sep 09 2017 02:20 PM

Now that we got her on Key West radar the track is very easy to verify: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Seems to be an eye's width N of the forecast line.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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enterlaughing
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Wisconsin 27.99N 82.46W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98716 - Sat Sep 09 2017 03:46 PM

As all of this is coming much closer now to reality, I want to thank all of you on this site for being here, taking your time to post and for sharing your considerable knowledge and expertise. I know many of you are in harms way - stay safe!!

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JonBoy418
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: enterlaughing]
      #98720 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:09 PM

Thank you all for your work and interpretations on the models. I've been following intently for the past few days and this forum has been a voice of reason in the vast misinformation being circulated around online.

I had a quick question that someone may be able to help. I've been logging coordinates of the storm for the past few days, waiting to see the change in direction to the North. In my logs, I notice how the storm has been heading "West" for the past 24 hours. However, the lines of Latitude has changed from 22.0N to 23.1 N in the same span. The most egregious was between the 8AM to 11AM advisory this morning. It went from 22.6N / 79.6W to 22.8N / 79.8W. A change of .2 degrees north and west. Wouldn't that indicate a NW movement? The NHC showed a West direction, but I'm not sure why.

Obviously I still trust the NHC over my basic geometry knowledge, but I was wondering if there was an explanation. Thanks again for everyone's help.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JonBoy418]
      #98721 - Sat Sep 09 2017 04:15 PM

The NHC uses the general overall movement of the storm rather than just the eye with each update because the eye often wobbles due to eyewall replacement cycles.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Bev]
      #98726 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:18 PM

From the NHC Discussion: Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge:


They said same thing earlier at 11am and 5am really... this storm is already almost 81W... if it doesn't turn NW in the next 3hrs and NNW by midnight.. this will pass west of Clearwater-St Pete.. how far depends each hour it keeps going wnw-nw


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98728 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:47 PM

Quote:

From the NHC Discussion: Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge:


They said same thing earlier at 11am and 5am really... this storm is already almost 81W... if it doesn't turn NW in the next 3hrs and NNW by midnight.. this will pass west of Clearwater-St Pete.. how far depends each hour it keeps going wnw-nw




I do think that the poleward turn has started. The decrease in forward motion is enough evidence for me. Not to mention the edge of the ridge that she's sitting on.

Let's pray that it doesn't just ride off the coast of St. Pete. That would be so bad for so many reasons and would make a devastating storm absolutely catastrophic.

--------------------
Matt


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JonBoy418]
      #98729 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:54 PM

Quote:

I notice how the storm has been heading "West" for the past 24 hours. However, the lines of Latitude has changed from 22.0N to 23.1 N in the same span. The most egregious was between the 8AM to 11AM advisory this morning. It went from 22.6N / 79.6W to 22.8N / 79.8W. A change of .2 degrees north and west. Wouldn't that indicate a NW movement? The NHC showed a West direction, but I'm not sure why.





NHC does in fact track the eye, but there is consideration given to wobbles and other transitory or short-lived changes, and tends prefer smoothing movement into six hour averages - also what is kept in best track. .

If a NW trend covering 3 hours was to continue as NW when smoothed out over six hours, the verbiage would probably reflect that.


The 24 hour track of Irma from 11AM AST Friday to 11AM AST Saturday (today) per NHC was

08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W
09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W

That movement is 0.8 to the N and 4.5 to the W (or generally 'west')


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98732 - Sat Sep 09 2017 06:14 PM

I am also concerned that Irma will ultimately end up slightly west of the official forecast. The WNW motion has definitely commenced, but it is more west than it is northwest. The last few radar frames even show a westward wobble, which means little for the overall forecast picture, but could make a big difference in the exact point of landfall on Florida's oblique coastline. Any prolonged westward movement will likely cause Irma to come ashore farther up the west coast. The next run of the Euro will be interesting.

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Ronn]
      #98733 - Sat Sep 09 2017 06:21 PM

Yep, the motion does still seem to be slightly more west than north. From 11AM to 6PM it moved .8N and 1.1W. That's a more northward movement than the previous 12 hours, but I noticed in the special 6PM update that it hadn't moved north at all and .2W. Probably just a wobble, but we'll see if that continues.

According to the 5pm update, the storm should be centered at 24.1N 81.3W at 5am Sunday. It'll be interesting to see how close it comes to that point.

Edited by AgentB (Sat Sep 09 2017 06:24 PM)


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