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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Nate) , Major: 87 (Maria) Florida - Any: 97 (Irma) Major: 97 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: AgentB]
      #98736 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:06 PM

Gulfport, Florida:
OK, reality setting in. The "Tampa Bay" storm that threatens almost every year and always teases and does very little, may very well be focused on us this year. And this is not "just some typical" hurricane.

Irma...

Certainly one of the record storms of the Atlantic, and also I am sure a record for media attention. Harvey is a hard act to follow, but Irma has earned the respect she deserves.

Irma...

24 hours from now Tampa Bay will likely be dealing with the storm we've dodged for so long. Granted, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, or other cities further south may take the brunt. But for we who live in the Tampa Bay area, this may be the storm of the century.

Honestly, we can "feel" it in the air already.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Prospero]
      #98737 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:12 PM

Irma wobbles WSW over the past hour...not a typo

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Steve C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 15
Loc: Houston TX 77059 29.60N 95.10W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chase 22]
      #98738 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:18 PM

Quote:

Let's pray that it doesn't just ride off the coast of St. Pete. That would be so bad for so many reasons and would make a devastating storm absolutely catastrophic.




We have extended family that have retired to Fort Myers. Their plan was to evacuate to a shelter, Island Coast High School. But it is full. Now they are staying at home. Not sure of their elevation or construction. "But if something else shows up, we are ready to go if we have time." I'm really worried time has run out.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)

Edited by Steve C (Sat Sep 09 2017 07:19 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98739 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:19 PM

Quote:

Irma wobbles WSW over the past hour...not a typo




Yes I saw that too. Definitely a WSW jog or wobble.

For the others. NHC Advisory storm headings are averaged over a 6-12 hour period. They've done this for years.

Hence, Charley taking a hard right turn into Punta Gorda,FL and the Average heading had Charley aimed at Tampa.

Watch the Birdie!


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Ronn]
      #98741 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:35 PM

Quote:

I am also concerned that Irma will ultimately end up slightly west of the official forecast.




She refuses to turn for some reason and appears to be off track by an eye's width again. Just jogged a tiny bit N, (undoing that WSW wobble) but I'd call the overall current motion W. Did any of the models pick up on this? I know there was always one or two with a wide west track but normally we dismiss those odd balls.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Corkhill1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Costa Rica
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98742 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:40 PM

Hoping the UKM comes in and gives it a push to the west and the NHC does too. Be Safe

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98745 - Sat Sep 09 2017 07:55 PM

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!



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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98747 - Sat Sep 09 2017 08:03 PM

Quote:

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!




Like a boat trying to avoid a sand bar!

8PM advisory 110 miles from Key West, completing EWRC now

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98752 - Sat Sep 09 2017 09:30 PM

Quote:

Irma's track just offshore of northern Cuba has been remarkable. Many opportunities to head inland.. None taken!





Isn't that somewhat expected? There is an effect which basically keeps the hurricane offshore when it is skirting the shore like that. Essentially the path of least resistance, hurricanes don't like land. I've seen this before, maybe Charlie?


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98754 - Sat Sep 09 2017 09:46 PM

To me it looks like it is going almost due north. Does the last hour of radar not look like that to you?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: chance]
      #98755 - Sat Sep 09 2017 09:49 PM

Nope... another wobble or slow movement WNW

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98756 - Sat Sep 09 2017 10:10 PM

Presentation on GOES16 is impressive... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100 really getting her act together however become less circular and more N/S elongated. You can see the trough influence on the NW side well offshore.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98758 - Sat Sep 09 2017 10:22 PM

That ridge is still digging in good trying to keep it more WNW @ 5mph

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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: 28.35N 80.61W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98759 - Sat Sep 09 2017 10:27 PM

Within the accuracy of the wobble background noise, seems it's going the same direction it's been going. Draw a line. Yeah, it's leaving Cuba, but Cuba is bending away from that direction.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98764 - Sat Sep 09 2017 11:03 PM

Quote:

Isn't that somewhat expected? There is an effect which basically keeps the hurricane offshore when it is skirting the shore like that. Essentially the path of least resistance, hurricanes don't like land. I've seen this before, maybe Charlie?




Seems like that should be a myth, but then also a little intuitive, in that - if close enough to the coast, and steering currents aren't too strong, perhaps the center will keep leaping short distances into the area of deepest convection and lowest pressure that remains just offshore.

If anyone knows of solid peer-reviewed research on this (not of TCs jumping into deeper convection/lower pressure in general - that is well verified and explained - I'm talking of coastal 'runners,' only) I think some of us would love to read it


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98765 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:27 AM

Quote:

Within the accuracy of the wobble background noise, seems it's going the same direction it's been going. Draw a line. Yeah, it's leaving Cuba, but Cuba is bending away from that direction.




I am headed to bed but since you posted this it SURE looks like solid movement to the NW and dead-on toward Big Pine Key/Key West stretch. Hope all are out of there by now!!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98767 - Sun Sep 10 2017 12:48 AM

I think "Finally" the NNW movement has begun over the past hour..

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drummingcraig
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: scottsvb]
      #98768 - Sun Sep 10 2017 02:05 AM

Back up to Cat 4 as of 2am update. Up here in Jacksonville the winds are picking up and we are getting some pretty heavy rain starting to come in here & there. Can't imagine being down South in this mess.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: drummingcraig]
      #98772 - Sun Sep 10 2017 05:57 AM

Tracking just E of predicted now, looks to come in at Big Pine Key or just a bit south of there. Front side of the eye really strong, back side a touch weaker or maybe the radar just can't see thru clearly. 5AM update has it hugging the coast then turning more NW once past St Pete, heading towards the Big Bend region.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98774 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:01 AM

Looks like it will be east of Key West and west of Marathon. With it's present movement I don't see it skirting the coast all the way to Tampa. After the Keys, it may make landfall in Naples.

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