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#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: pincty]
      #98776 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:16 AM

Interesting that the Euro has the track moving more inland than the NHC track. With the Euro handling storms pretty much spot on, and NHC doing well, I think we`re in for a very interesting Sunday here in Florida. I worry for the people that stayed down there and those in Naples not to mention the whole SW coast line.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 339
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: pincty]
      #98777 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:21 AM

Looks like Irma is heading more NNW than NW, at least in the short term.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98778 - Sun Sep 10 2017 07:24 AM

Big Pine Key looks like its taking the worst of it, radar estimated 130 mph winds. 13 miles to landfall. Eyewall looking a bit ragged, dry pocket to the south.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98785 - Sun Sep 10 2017 09:15 AM

Dare that I say this, but as time is passing by I am beginning to suspect that Irma may be susceptible to a "Charley affect". What is that? I noticed here in Parrish that the heavier squals migrate from east to west, but as they approach the westcoast they dry up...we are now getting some light rain, but Polk County has had heavy weather, including tornado activity, that disapated to mist here in central Manatee County. I have watched the WV loop and what I see is very dry air diving down from the NW toward the storm and moisture is evaporating along the western side. This is what occurred with Charlie. I am hopeful that this trough now in the central GOM will push Irma to the NE.
Could be wishing an outcome. But this affect seems to be influencing the progress of this system.

--------------------
doug


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98789 - Sun Sep 10 2017 09:51 AM

Obviously this close to land every wobble is meaningful, but watching the radar on the Southwest Florida Water Management District site this sucker is looking like it's traveling nearly due north right now, if not with a tiny wobble to the east. It looks to my novice and nervous mind that it's definitely to the right of the NHC track, at least.

It would be beyond ridiculous if this system pulled a Charley and headed toward the right, making the turn the models had said for so long, but not when they expected.

Going to be a long, long day/night.

--------------------
Londovir


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98791 - Sun Sep 10 2017 09:52 AM

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Londovir]
      #98792 - Sun Sep 10 2017 09:59 AM

Quote:

Obviously this close to land every wobble is meaningful, but watching the radar on the Southwest Florida Water Management District site this sucker is looking like it's traveling nearly due north right now, if not with a tiny wobble to the east. It looks to my novice and nervous mind that it's definitely to the right of the NHC track, at least.

It would be beyond ridiculous if this system pulled a Charley and headed toward the right, making the turn the models had said for so long, but not when they expected.

Going to be a long, long day/night.




Pulling up the Satellite floater and turning on the forecast points, Irma looks significantly east of the forecast track. So much so that I wonder why TWC is not talking about it. Someone convince me the center Irma doesn't appear headed to Naples or east of Napes.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98793 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:05 AM Attachment (60 downloads)

Lastest snip of satellite and forecast points.

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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98794 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:16 AM

I totally agree with you. I remember when Charlie was moving up the Gulf years ago, Mike Clay of Bay News 9 spotted an eastern wobble and said that if may be nothing but if the next move goes the same way, then Charlie may be heading to landfall south of T.B. If it is known that Irma went slightly east of Key West and the hourly updates show a mostly northern motion (5 a.m. - 24.1, 81.5, 10 a.m. - 24.8, 81.5), at least a local met here in Tampa can state that the storm is tracking east of the model but caution people to not let their guard down. For caution's sake, I do understand it though.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: pincty]
      #98795 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:19 AM

I'm not an expert. But this is more than a wobble at this point. Irma is significantly east of track and no one is talking about it. It's like these weather people on the news have no training whatsoever.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98796 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:22 AM

Yep she is east of the forecast line, off by maybe 20 miles? but tracking kind of parallel to it so far.

edit - moving faster and almost due NORTH? Looks to hit Naples.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Sun Sep 10 2017 10:41 AM)


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98797 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:27 AM

Probably going about 350 (NNW?) I'd say in the last handful of hours. I'm curious how the track will adjust (if any) at the next track update.

--------------------
Londovir


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: StormHound]
      #98799 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:30 AM

Quote:

I'm not an expert. But this is more than a wobble at this point. Irma is significantly east of track and no one is talking about it. It's like these weather people on the news have no training whatsoever.




They are discussing it on NBC/ABC in Ft. Myers. It's very evident on satellite and radar.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98800 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:32 AM

Quote:

Yep she is east of the forecast line, off by maybe 20 miles? but tracking kind of parallel to it so far.




According to my eyes, it isn't really parallel. She was on track four or five hours ago, now quite a bit east. Seems to be heading due north.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 339
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98802 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:39 AM

Wobble, wobble, wobble. Like a top spinning down. But it looks east of track to me.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98804 - Sun Sep 10 2017 10:53 AM

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66

--------------------
doug


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98805 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:01 AM

Quote:

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?


I am seeing the same thing.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98806 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:08 AM

Quote:

The motion has been virtually to the North since at least 7:15 a.m. The over all shape of the system is elongated north-south. The west side has been affected by the dry air moving over the GOM, and it is affecting its structure, IMO.. Sky here has lifted and brightened considerably in the last hour and on the satellite that is revealed by white in the north west quadrant..barometers here have been steady for a while now at about 29.66




I see the same thing, curious to see if that dry air will continue to shread the west side.. I am a little rusty it's been awhile since I have been on here, but looks to me like a landfall further South..


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98807 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:08 AM

Local mets calling for Collier County landfall now.

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 289
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98808 - Sun Sep 10 2017 11:14 AM

Quote:

Correct me if I`m wrong, but as Irma moved over the keys, did I see a slight movement more to the N than NW ?




She went due north for 2 hours, now could be working or wobbling her way NNW. Naples landfall very possible on this track. While that would be bad for them (of course) it would be good for FL overall as the NE eyewall would come ashore in a very sparsely populated area vs a Charely situation with landfall near Sanibel, Punta Gorda or worst Sarasota or terrible if Tampa.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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