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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98099 - Sun Sep 03 2017 09:14 PM

Quote:

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect.Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?




Depends on the size. Irma is growing and at some point, it will make its own rules. A solid Cat 5 going pretty much west takes a high the size of the continental USA to bounce it north.

We'll have to see how many eyewall replacements she does with a relatively calm path right now.

These fast builders seem to have a mind of their own and only answer to MikeC's will.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #98100 - Sun Sep 03 2017 10:20 PM

HMON 18Z run brings the max winds too 162knts and the pressure to 856hpa. The HWRF to 145knts /910hpa. If memory serves me right, 882hpa was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic.

Edited by M.A. (Sun Sep 03 2017 10:27 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #98103 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:26 PM

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98104 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:30 PM

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




You are truly the voice of reason.And as she gets stronger the crazies will come out.Thank you.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98106 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:39 PM

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.









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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98107 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:46 PM

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




I truly believe that the low to the N-N/W has caused/facilitated this continued south turn/flattening of the storm. Some might not have seen some of the satellite of it but for several hours it had the characteristics of a very organized system. It's turning into a big rain storm now but it's done the damage we didn't want to see. It's obviously being pulled apart now but. It's kept Irma in warmer waters, kept Irma out of the same sheer that's pulling the other low apart.

I see Irma staying north of Hispaniola however it's going to be getting some serious effects. For me, as bad as it is for Hispaniola and Cuba getting hit with hurricane effects, them being able to pull some strength out of the storm is better than it walking right at Florida as an H4 or H5.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98108 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:23 AM

thx for sharing. and not only a Cat 5 but Atlantic record 881 mbar!

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98109 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:25 AM

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and CMC are in fairly close agreement now with a S. Fla landfall or very near scrape.

What is going on with the GFS pressure, an anomaly?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98110 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:58 AM

see above 10PM the HMON called it first and much stronger than even the GFS

Curious to know MA's links to see exact data from the runs? Thx

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98111 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:09 AM


Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.






And the 5:00 EDT update continues that trend. Time to take this seriously..


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98112 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:38 AM

All of the 00Z model runs are beginning to cluster on a severe hurricane impacting the entire FL peninsula. We'll see if the 06Z and 12Z runs continue the trend. At any rate, I'm going to start executing my preparedness plan before everyone begins to panic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98113 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 AM

The trend seems to be that it's going into the GOM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090051.shtml?cone#contents

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Sep 04 2017 07:28 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98114 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:28 AM

The 06Z run of the GFS calls for Irma going right up the spine of the Florida peninsula. i am starting to prepare my plans.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98115 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:34 AM

These models will change several times in the next few days.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98116 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:35 AM

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98118 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:40 AM

0z Euro joins the GFS heading toward Cuba/ scraping the north coast then cuts north just east of Florida, and over the Western Bahamas, with a NC/SC border landfall on September 13th as a at 3/4.

6z GFS is similar at first to the 0z, but moves deeper into Cuba and exits north near HAvana, then crosses over Key West as a cat 4/5 on the morning of Sep 11th, then Landfalls again near Naples then rides just east of I-75 all the way up into Tennessee. Still overdoing pressures the whole way, but a major cat 4/5 the entire time.

Fortunately there is still some time and beyond 4 days the forecast becomes a bit difficult, so this will likely change, it may shift further west and go into the Gulf, or shift back east, the chances of no landfall (out to sea) are going down very quickly though. Continue to watch and monitor the system, the GFS's pressures are unrealistic especially with land interaction, but the idea of a major is not.

I suspect the models will shift (Again) today and tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98120 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:44 AM

Quote:

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!




Geographic area defined by 1970's NHC forecaster Paul Hebert where statistically any hurricane passing through them has greater odds of affecting Florida than outside of it, more of a statistical thing than anything else, it's not a hard rule by any means. It's outlined on the South Florida Water management model chart.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98121 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:45 AM

Post adjustment

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98122 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:49 AM

Herbert Box. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98123 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:50 AM

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.












--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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