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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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leecherney
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98153 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:04 PM

I'm in Delray Beach, with a house that has a generator and impact glass. We are still flying to NY Friday morning.

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98155 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.

It's too early to tell with Irma. I am making my plans to make plans and that may eventualy turn to taking actions .i am just saying that it may be time to plan to make plans in the entire Florida peninsula. Please don't attack me for saying this. There seems to be a note on this board of one-upmanship. Know what I mean?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98156 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM

Then they're idiots because I'm in Tampa and I'm scared poopless right now this thing will come through as higher than a Cat 2, regardless of where it actually makes landfall.

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Colleen A.Moderator
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #98157 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:39 PM

No, I didn't mean to imply that they are idiots. It could turn east (doubting that at this point) but you never know. I have no idea where it's going---I'm just saying people need to be prepared. I had a woman from TX tell me not to forget life jackets. I never would have thought about buying them. Good advice!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98158 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:16 PM

I really don't know what you are talking about. It isn't unusual to be on alert. We should be. But this won't be Harvey if it does strike Florida it will move along in hours What my family did today was going over our plans and insuring we are prepared...as prepared as we can be. Tomorrow is an important day for Florida. 5 day cones tend to be fairly accurate. If things stay as they are now the storm my well turn to the east of the peninsula.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98159 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:22 PM

Just stocked up on a few things. Walmart was a bit of a madhouse which is not unusual for a holiday, but they DID have a LOT of water. Worker said they had a semi full of water show up this morning. It was running out the door pretty quickly along with D batteries, lanterns and any other supplies folks could think of. Harvey has spooked a lot of folks back into respect for hurricanes. Friend of mine in West Palm Beach found the water all gone at the local Publix by 10am this morning. Store should be able to restock multiple times before the weekend. I really don't like the looks of the setup with this storm....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98160 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:33 PM

We appreciate the status report on the goods and services and so early. Just goes to reinforce that many people are aware.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98161 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:46 PM

My wife is diabetic and has insulin that needs refrigeration. We are five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County, on a slight ridge so dry until a 20 foot storm surge. But with old oak trees are everywhere we could possibly be a few days without power when a high wind comes by.

I see several hurricane shelters in the area, and one "special needs" shelter. Would this be an option for a generator powered refrigerator for insulin?

I think I'll order a car cigarette powered cooler that we can plug into our car for her meds...

We may send her on the road, but the last time Pinellas County was evacuated the gridlock on the bridges was crazy and several friends eventually made it to Orlando to be hammered there when it was calm here (Charlie).

I'll ride the storm out here, as foolish as it is. Unless a cat 5 totally aims for Gulfport and St Pete...


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98162 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:55 PM

Quote:

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.




Some of these models runs put pretty much EVERYONE in FL in some kind of tropical event. Charley did plenty of damage in central FL because our state is low (no hills) and the southern half has Lake O and the Everglades to give storms some water to draw up. Wilma's strength showed that. My normal plan is (as indicated) to head to Orlando because there are lots of hotels and generally doesn't get big winds. However that might not work if Irma tracks up the middle. A more western track puts most of FL on the dirty side, plus the Big Bend area could feel effects. A more eastern track likely gives us a stronger storm (using the energy from the Gulfstream) but would keep the really bad damage on just the eastern shoreline communities provided the eye wall hugs the coast.

The evacuation of the Keys will be critical if things play out as currently predicted since just driving to Miami/Ft Laud/Naples isn't really getting out of harms way. Plus the time required to get everyone out using just one 2 lane road puts massive pressure on our friends down there.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98163 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:05 PM

Totally on the same page as you are. Winds were tough here in Orlando in 2004, but nothing like the west or east coast through the 3 canes that hit.

Btw. Just heard that State of Emergency is in effect from Governor Rick Scott.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98164 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:25 PM

Coming in late to the 18Z, anyway slightly north in the near term, over Turks and caicos Friday morning, Landfall near Key Largo Cat 5 Sunday morning, and rides up the entire spine of Florida inland, still a major hurricane over Orlando when it moves there overnight Sunday into Monday, the up to just west of Jacksonville Monday morning, still a hurricane, and doesn't give up hurricane strength until around Augusta, GA or slightly north of there Tuesday morning.

Today's 18Z is faster than yesterday's 18Z.

Good, it moves fast, bad, category 5 winds and surge dwindling to Category 3 hitting the entire east coast of Florida and well inland. Those in south florida would start to see some of Irma's bands Saturday, with the worst not being until Sunday morning.





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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98165 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:40 PM

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 15
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98166 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:44 PM

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #98167 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM

Quote:

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.




The east coast would be on the dirty side of the storm and given the counter clock motion would also get the worst storm surge.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98168 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.


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LilE
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: Panama City, Florida
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98169 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:56 PM

They aren't talking to much about the Gulf Coast, well they have on and off. I'm not being critical, I just wish they had a crystal ball. lol I'm in Panama City up in the Panhandle. When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?

I live with my 84 year old Mom. she's old and I'm chronically ill. We have no family or friends to help.

My parents lost their house in Hurricane Opal 1995 and were displaced for a year. We had to mandatory evacuate then and they lived in town. the sheriffs were going door to door telling people to leave, if they wouldn't they gave them body bags and asked them to write #s for next of kin on their arms. The local media even left. They did not reverse flow the traffic so we sat on I-10 for 7 hours in bumper to bumper traffic as far as you could see with a lot of hysterical people. No police anywhere. People coming from Pensacola, Ft. Walton and then P.C. were all alone on I-10. When the weather started coming in we actually thought we were going to die on I-10, sounds funny to me now but it was pretty scary.
Just a bit of background and I'm new here.

Yes, I'm fretting a bit right now!

Its nice to meet everyone and if I'm not posting proper info I'll be in the graveyard, right? lol
Laura


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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: LilE]
      #98170 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 PM

Quote:

When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?




There are several updates each day from the National Hurricane Center which are typically disseminated by your local television stations. With each passing day we become more and more confident in the eventual track Irma will take. Therefore, it's time for you to put a plan in action. Will you stay? Evacuate? Etc..

Always follow your local emergency management's instructions. You can find them here at this link for Bay County and Panama City:

Bay County EMC


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98171 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:33 PM

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Daniel Jones
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98172 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.




You may want to look into Cooluli. The one I linked, while not the most visually appealing, is at least available now via Prime One-Day for the Orlando area. I have all 3 sizes of their mini fridges, and while they're not cold enough to keep food for extended periods, they will work for keeping insulin cold enough for several days. My mother-in-law uses insulin, and we actually keep one of these plugged in and cooled for use in the event the power goes out. Also comes with plugs to use in the car or even USB power banks. Like most thermoelectric fridges, they only cool to about 40 degrees below ambient, so keep that in mind when using them.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98173 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:37 PM

YETI Roady 20 or larger Tundra.
get block ice, not cube.


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