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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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justmeinflorida
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Pasco County, FL
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98174 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.




FRIO insulin wallet gets activated with water and will keep insulin cool for 2 days, then you just wet it again to re-activate. http://www.frioinsulincoolingcase.com/how-the-frio-insulin-cooling-case-works.html


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COML43
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98177 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:53 PM

Prospero- Also consider dry ice and stock up on crush activated sports medicine ice packs. They are VERY handy in keeping meds chilled "on the go" and in unexpected outages. -Murph

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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98178 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:58 PM

I will say that the tall pines came down in the Orlando area in the the three canes of 2004. Live Oaks too, but a lot of pines came down. Center was only about 5 miles from me with Charley. Had some friends that had big Live Oaks come down on their house. Took months to fully repair. I won't mess with thinking Orlando residential areas that are near big trees or wooded areas are safe. Big hotel areas are safer. That's my concern, that big Live Oaks come down.

Too soon to know and probably a bit premature.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Daniel Jones]
      #98181 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:07 PM

Thanks Daniel Jones, just ordered a Cooluli which will come tomorrow free delivery (Amazon Prime).

I'm interested in the FRIO that justmeinflorida mentions, and may add that to out Diabetic home and road kit.

Insulin, and Diabetes in general definitely adds a level of concern when preparing for any kind of storm or power outage.

Thank you ALL and I am certain your info will be valuable for many others as well!

I'll copy this thread in part to the Ask/Tell forum for any further discussion...

Edited by Prospero (Mon Sep 04 2017 08:31 PM)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98182 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:22 PM

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge *DELETED* [Re: Prospero]
      #98183 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:25 PM

Post deleted by RedingtonBeachGuy

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98185 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:43 PM

Quote:

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?




There are some "worst case", but realistic models rolling out now. Many of them show an "up the spine" approach that (figuratively) splits Florida in twain with the eye path.

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).

Keep an eye out, and don't panic. Take action when needed.


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leecherney
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98186 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:48 PM

I notice the GFS went a bit west again, looks like in at Naples?

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98187 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:53 PM

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18Z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98189 - Mon Sep 04 2017 09:14 PM

Quote:

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18Z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...




No! This is at 850mb. You're looking for Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) - found here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

Edit: Paradoxically meteorologists measure altitude in millibars as well. Common heights are MSL, 850MB, 500MB, 200MB, 50 (and sometimes 20MB)

Edited by Doombot! (Mon Sep 04 2017 09:17 PM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98190 - Mon Sep 04 2017 09:20 PM

OK thanks!

So basically 145 mph at sea level. Still impressive.

Question, 850mb. What is the "mb"? I'm thinking "millibars" but have no idea how that relates to the models. Altitude? Pressure?

I may be asking something that has no quick easy answer...



Edit: just read you edit and explanation!

Edited by Prospero (Mon Sep 04 2017 09:21 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98192 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:19 PM

Quote:

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).




Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98194 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:30 PM

Quote:



Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.




The same happened with Charlie. My parents' place is right at 50 miles east of where I live. They had 130 mph winds and incredible damage to trees and structures (80k damage to their house) while we didn't even have TS force winds. Will be interesting to see how the wind fields expand around this monster....just hope I don't see them first hand!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98195 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:32 PM

please chime in
for 24hrs the HMON and GFS have called for sub 890mbar at S FL landfall so why is the NHC at 130mph at 120 hours? thx.


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Mike V
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Miami, FL 25.75N 80.23W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98196 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:39 PM

Quote:

. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.





When you mention this, I was in the Eyewall of Andrew and it was not fun at all. In the aftermath, to me what was amazing was as you crossed roughly around SW 30th street on US1, it was like you crossed into the twilight zone. The amount of damage before that line was nothing compared to what was after.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina

Edited by Mike V (Mon Sep 04 2017 10:51 PM)


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98197 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:47 PM

Because the HMON is the highest wind speed and the lowest pressure. They take an average for intensity of the models and make the best educated guess.

On a second note, I haven't seen any thought of the Okeechobee dike. This I think would be one of my foremost concerns if I lived south of the lake. There has been talk for years about the need to reconstruct it. I know they have worked on it. Just food for thought.


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98198 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:18 PM

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98199 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:32 PM

Total heat energy content has been rising along northern coast of Cuba

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/cahhp.gif


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98200 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:46 AM

Quote:

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue



That dike should be proof against any rain Irma will bring. Irma is scooting right along and inland flooding shouldn't be an issue. It was built after a storm parked over the lake and flooded the area around. I want to say the 1928 storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Continuity. [Re: justmeinflorida]
      #98203 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:05 AM

What I find intresting is the continuity between the model runs. In years past, you'd have models all over the place, sometimes as soon as <36h out.

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.

Have these two storms been easier to predict? Has the NHC reigned in their algorithms? Am I missing something?

It seems odd that for the last 48 hours most models are honing into and maintaing one general location, 5-7 days out.

D!


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