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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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TPuppy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: 28.34N 81.37W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98208 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:43 AM

I believe that the Naples and Ft Myers area has had an enormous amount of rain and flooding in the last few weeks. Will that make any difference or has that already drained off?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98209 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:25 AM

overnight mdoel runs:

0z 6FS just north of Caribbean islands (enough for some to feel the eyewall) Starting tomorrow morning, Puerto Rico escapes the core to the north,

Turks and Caicos get a direct hit Friday early morning cat 4, it reaches cat 5 between Cuba and the Bahamas, turn north starts early Sunday, by Sunday morning cat 5 landfall in middle keys, then sw landfall south of Naplesup through state, over Orlando Monday morning, still Major, moves just west of Jacksonville into Georgia by the afternoon, still hurricane. possible loses hurricane strength near Augusta, GA late that night and moves toward Charlotte.then through the NC mountains into TN/VA and up into the great lakes.

0z Euro clips the northeastern Leewards, stays north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, goes over the Inagua islands Friday morning, landfall Cuba's north coast, Saturday morning, exits Cuba then landfalls cat 4 in middle Keys late Sunday night, near Orlando by Monday night (still strong, but maybe weakens to Cat 2). This run gets weakened by Cuba interaction but still comes up through Florida. Remains head up to Augusta and the NC mountains do the rest in.

In short very similar to the last run, slightly west, but still up through Florida, Euro does hit Cuba this run, while the GFS does not, and the GFS winds up being stronger because of it. EPS members have also shifted slightly west, of those getting into the Gulf they still turn it back into Florida.

Again, model talk is in the lounge for a reason, it's just that, the NHC forecast is the best bet, and it really is just a guess beyond 4 days or so.



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98210 - Tue Sep 05 2017 07:39 AM

I have been tracking these things for a very long time, and I can not recall ever seeing a more perfectly shaped Hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Kraig
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Jupiter, Fl 26.90N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98211 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:05 AM

175MPH AT 8AM!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Continuity. [Re: Doombot!]
      #98212 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:07 AM

Quote:

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.




Gotta assume the data, science and computer power have all increased leading to much better forecasting. I too remember when you could basically ignore the 5 day cone because it was so far off.

Overnight we had another shift S and W of said cone. This starting to look like a hybrid of a Charley / Wilma over land track. After going thru the middle to lower Keys it appears Irma would have a landfall on the SW coast between Naples and Sarasota (as Cat 4) with a track N to slightly NNE thru most of the state all the way to Jacksonville.

Given the environment Irma will likely be a Cat 5 today and maintain that (or darn close) until it reaches Puerto Rico with only ERC causes small up/down fluctuations.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Continuity. [Re: JMII]
      #98213 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM

It's a 5,175mph!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98214 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM

Wow, no matter what, it looks more than likely the weather should start going down hill starting Saturday if the trends continue. Florida should really be concerned and take this seriously. If it should go into the gulf people in the big bend probably get spanked not to mention the west coastal areas.. I know its 5 days out but its really coming together for a Florida major weather event. How strong is the weather system that's going to turn Irma more north? Seems like all of a sudden it makes this dramatic turn and moves N then N NE

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98215 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:32 AM

looking at the funk top convection has slowed. no more green and more dark red. and eyewall looks jagged. ERC?

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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98216 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:43 AM

Post removed by Cieldumort



Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 05 2017 09:50 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98217 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:48 AM

Quick update, Harvey up to 175mph Cat 5, very bad for the islands even if there isn't a direct hit (Eyewall is huge)

6z GFS similar to 0z run but slightly east, landfall MiamI Cat 5 midday Sunday, then exits near Ft. Pierce, second landfall cat 4/5 north of Savannah late Monday.

Very limited time to update today.


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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98218 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:02 AM

It was trending West which made me believe it might keep trending that way But now the 06 GFS is back east again. We could get trends east or west but in my years watching these i have yet to see 1 go the exact path 5 days out like they have this at.

Like Charlie when the turn happens is the Key and as we know charlie was in the cone but not expected to turn till Tampa so even it it moved more west or east with the track ne ready as if it was coming to you.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 09:03 AM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98219 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:38 AM

Looking at Clark's forecast track chart the models are flip-flopping E/W and there is a greater disagreement after the turn northward

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98229 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:40 AM

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98230 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:41 AM

Started thinking last week that this storm was on a track that resembled Donna-1960...Hmmm! hope not.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98232 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:56 AM

Very scary visuals of the GFS model run: https://www.ventusky.com

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98233 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:08 PM

Quote:

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.




Convection has been quite impressive - very cold cloud tops overnight. While there has been some warming during the morning, Irma remains a phenomenally well organized hurricane with cloud tops that are sufficiently cold, but if the trend of warming continues, we could see Irma's intensity back down some going forward later today. (TBD)

The pressure may seem to be a bit high for the 180 MPH, but keep in mind that the environmental pressures are not low to begin with, with very strong High pressure just to her north - all relative




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Rotor
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: 28.30N 80.60W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98234 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:13 PM

My take as well. Rode that one out in Cocoa Beach.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98235 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:18 PM



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chance
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98236 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:24 PM

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 12:25 PM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98237 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM

Mike, I perfectly understand the "Harvey" typo in your last post! I have a request for Irma lounge visitors (outside of the impact zone) that will be very helpful in monitoring Irma as she nears my location one block off the Atlantic Ocean in east central Florida. After she makes the forecasted right turn and departs Cuba's north coast, please post any observations of eye wall diameter and current (or potential) eye wall replacements and eye diameter constrictions or expansions. Also, any significant wobbles west or east will be helpful to those within 50 miles of Irma's ultimate track. This type of information posted in the lounge helped me make final "tweaks" regarding my personal shelter in place hurricane plan (before we lost power) as Hurricane Matthew moved out of the northern Bahamas and tracked toward my location last October.

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