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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE
      #98005 - Mon Aug 28 2017 09:34 AM



A vigorous wave that has just left the coast of westernmost Africa has had solid model support for development over several runs, and this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 93L.

As of Aug 28 1215z, 93L was estimated to be centered near 12N 19.5W, with a minimum central pressure of 1009mb, and moving west at a rapid clip of 15 to 20 mph. The disturbance is being impacted by easterly shear, with convection displaced west of the approximate center.

There are some indication that a low level circulation may already be trying close off with 93L, perhaps at a location a little west of the presently estimated center. However, the fast forward motion of the disturbance and displaced convection will likely inhibit dramatic development in the near-term, but after 48 hours or so 93L's vigor may be able to overcome these detractors, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form - with NHC giving it a solid 70% chance of development within 5 days.

As an aside, props to vpbob21 for latching on to this wave early and bringing it to our attention more than once in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge, where you can read from vpbob a little more on the model history of what is now 93L.

This is where to post thoughts on 93L's prospects. Long-term model discussions on 93L are also encouraged here. Pull up a chair, have a beverage of your liking, and share with us your thoughts. We may end up with lots of time to discuss this one.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98012 - Tue Aug 29 2017 07:39 AM

0Z Euro takes 93L into the Caribbean islands sep 6, then toward Puero Rico Sep 7 and Turks & Caicos int he Bahamas on September 8th. As a hurricane.

Something to watch closely post Harvey for the US also.


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craigm
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98013 - Tue Aug 29 2017 08:56 AM

I'd like to post a good read on why the ECMWF outperforms the GFS. Although they both have their hits and misses as the article states. This pertains to 93L lounge only as we look at the current 240hr solutions for both of these models and also how well the Euro seems to be performing overall the last few years. This article is over a year old but, I think it still describes the most recent iteration of the ECMWF model. Not sure what is going on with the GFS with their longer range forecasts. Will do some more research to see how well the GFS has been verifying at 120+hrs since their new rollout. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/...-just-improved/

Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 29 2017 09:00 AM)


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doug
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #98014 - Tue Aug 29 2017 09:51 AM

Euro is the only model that keeps the system in the lower latitudes up to 240 hours. The others have it significantly north.

--------------------
doug


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cosmicstorm
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #98015 - Tue Aug 29 2017 12:53 PM

Great post Will look forward to your results.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #98019 - Tue Aug 29 2017 04:05 PM

Today's 12Z euro keeps it north of the Caribbean islands, but has a cat 3 hurricane just east of the Bahamas on Sep 8. the 12GFS doesn't really develop it, but the weather moves over Florida on Sep 11th (after going through the Bahamas)

93L is worth watching over the next week or so.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98023 - Tue Aug 29 2017 07:21 PM

18z GFS weak system passing just north of the Caribbean islands on Sep 6, then strengthening tropical storm through the Central bahamas on Sep 9, cat 2 hurricane over the Keys on Sep 11th, Cat 4 landfall big bend on the 14th

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98025 - Wed Aug 30 2017 09:39 AM

NHC will be issuing advisories for this as Tropical Storm Irma at 11AM.

6Z GFS keeps the system out to sea the entire run, but develops it into a hurricane.

0Z Euro has a major hurricane Just east of the Bahamas on Sep. 9th.

GEFS Ensembles concentrate near Florida, so it will be something to keep watch over the next week or two, but there is a fair chance it will stay out to sea also.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98028 - Wed Aug 30 2017 03:32 PM

12Z models for Irma.

12Z GFS has Irma staying north of the Caribbean, but a hurricane by this Saturday, and recurving, but gets very close to Bermuda September 10th as a major hurricane.

12Z Euro has it a Hurricane on Sunday also, clips the Northeast Caribbean islands as cat 2/3 next Wednesday, Over the VI and Puerto on Sep 7 as a major hurricane, and continues through the Southeast and Central Bahamas as a major 0n the 8 & 9th where the model run ends.

HWRF and HMON keep it north of the Caribbean islands.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98029 - Thu Aug 31 2017 07:58 AM

Irma overnight runs:

6Z GFS Hurricane later today, maintains it, keeps it north of the Caribbean, cat 3/4 landfall near outer banks on Sep 10th.

0Z Euro, over Northeastern Caribbean, PR, on Wednesday, cat 2 hurricane, just north of Hispaniola by Friday, riding northern coast of Cuba at the end of the run on the 10th.

CMC misses Caribbean to the north,

GEFS Ensembles the majority of runs recurve, (good news)

Euro ensembles closer over the Bahamas, though.

Splitting the difference keeps it a threat to the US in play, ne Caribbean also. Still a long ways out, but it will be important to watch over the next week or two. The wildcard is the potential Gulf system, which could affect the track of Irma.

Both Euro and the GFS trended west.

If it were to affect the US, timeframe would likely be Sep 10-12th.


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doug
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98031 - Thu Aug 31 2017 08:43 AM

I agree that development in the WGOM would allow a weakening in the ATL ridge that would allow a stronger storm to move more northward, so it is key for us to note whether a system does actually develop in the SW GOM over the next few days or not. The stronger the ridge the more south and west the track will be. The present Euro track is not favorable...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98032 - Thu Aug 31 2017 10:12 AM

One notable thing about the pattern is that Irma's set up to become a very large hurricane (area wise), probably larger than the state of Florida. Which means it'll likely be a big surge generator, usually keeps the winds down (usually).

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JMII
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Re: 93L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98036 - Thu Aug 31 2017 11:24 AM

Irma looks really good for a storm so far east and so early in its development. Tight core, good outflow, almost has an eye already. NHC has upgraded to a 'Cane as of 11 AM update.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98037 - Thu Aug 31 2017 12:54 PM

Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) notes that with regard to the most recent ECMWF, which has a wide spread later in the period, the CFAN Wx/Climate EPS "High Probability Cluster" shows the best ensemble members (by initialization score) favor the Gulf.

Something to watch over the next few days to see if the other Euro members come into line with this (along with other globals, such as the GFS.)




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Reaper
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98038 - Thu Aug 31 2017 01:23 PM

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98040 - Thu Aug 31 2017 02:59 PM

euro has it moving west, goes through northeast of the Caribbean Wednesday then ends the run in the Florida Straits on Sep 10th.

GFS has no Caribbean or US landfall, but takes the storm into Nova Scotia in Canada sept 12th.

Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.

We're not sure about the Caribbean yet, much less beyond, so that's about where it stands now. Something to watch very closely.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #98041 - Thu Aug 31 2017 03:42 PM

Quote:

It will be interesting to see if it passes through Hebert Box 1 as a major and what that will mean.



I am watching this myself....I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site). I know they are not a sure thing but it is an interesting observation. I have added them to my tracking charts for easy reference. With every model trend toward the south it increases the chance of a pass-through.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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JMII
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98042 - Thu Aug 31 2017 05:40 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have been fascinated with the Hebert boxes since I learned about them (on this site).




I love how the South Florida Water Management District has the eastern "box" outlined on their graphics, oddly the western one isn't highlighted.

Irma certain got her act together quickly. From TS to Cat 3 in no time at all. Current pattern has a large, oblong blocking High (over Bermuda as typical for this time of year) but that high has a weakness in the middle. This is why the current Irma track goes NW then W then SW then back W in a lazy wobble over the next 5 days.

So the question is: does the H erode enough to let Irma turn N and finally curve out to sea.? Or does the weakness in the high close up and force Irma on a long track west?

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98045 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:36 AM

Is it my imagination or is the NHC track leaning toward the EURO ensemble? So many models on the north side of NHC but the EURO is south and west of those....it might just be my rather limited understanding of how NHC figures its track....

--------------------
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2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98046 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:43 AM

It's probably a slight bias to the Euro, but the 5 day track is pretty similar regardless.

new model runs:

0zGFS slightly south of last run, but missed the NE Caribbean entirely, gets real close to the Outer banks on Sep 10 clips the outer banks as a cat 4, landfall near Virginia Beach Sep 10th.

0z CMC misses Caribbean to the north, barely, Cat 4 in the central Bahamas Sept 8, weakens to cat 2, landfall in upper keys Sep 10, rides up through Nples, and Just west of Ft. Myers at the end of the run.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98047 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:13 AM

Still a long way out, but by late next week.the north east may be under the gun.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98048 - Fri Sep 01 2017 07:27 AM

Morning runs, better trends

0z euro clips the northeast Caribbean Thursday, then stays north (but close) of the Bahamas and ends the run with a recurve setup.

6Z GFS misses Caribbean to the north and recurves out to sea (west of Bermuda)

Slightly more than half of the GEFS ensembles show recruve now as well.

Hopefully this trend continues.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98049 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:26 AM

New England landfall?



--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98050 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:52 AM

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98051 - Fri Sep 01 2017 10:54 AM

Quote:

Not being sarcastic, but with those plots, it could land anywhere??




I think the GOM is safe.
Right now it looks like somewhere on the east coast or a fish spinner.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 10:55 AM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98052 - Fri Sep 01 2017 11:22 AM


At this point, Southern New England would need some luck not to at the very least get effects from Hurricane Irma.I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them. Long way off,but that is my take at this moment in time.






Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 12:52 PM)


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JMII
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98053 - Fri Sep 01 2017 12:57 PM

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98054 - Fri Sep 01 2017 01:01 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.




Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.

Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.




Agree it is going to have a lot to do with timing.Here are the latest runs,You can see the tunnel effect.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

--------------------

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Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98056 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:19 PM

Today's model runs are a bit better news, mainly for the Caribbean islands, beyond that is still too soon to tell.

18Z GFS keeps the storm well north of the Caribbean islands, and east of the Bahamas, where the run ends, its a bit east, beyond that it's a bit odd but its still worth watching as it shows a landfall in western Long island on Sep 10th.

12Z Euro also keeps it (Barely) north of the Caribbean islands, but close enough for concern, the south side likely would be the weaker side (right of the eye is usually the strongest) It does get dangerously close to the Bahamas also by Sep 10/11th, closest to Florida on the 12th, east of the state, and moving fairly slowly. The trough toward the end of the Euro is the thing to watch if it would push it more into the coast.

In short, better news for the Caribbean, although they will still need to watch it very closely, but the official track is also leaning toward keeping it north. Beyond that is too soon to tell, impacts along the East coast are possible, but direct impact (landfall) is marginally less likely, but the future beyond 5 days is extremely uncertain. There is a good deal of risk that it could landfall along the US coast, more than most systems Still plenty of time to watch it, and there is no reason to hype this system other than being aware of it. This system is 10-12 days out and it is way too early to jump to any sort of conclusion any more than that at this point is probably hype. Watch and have a plan if you are along the east coast (particularly NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY) although the GEFS says Florida, and watch, of course, in the Northeast Caribbean.

So in short just keep watching.


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Prospero
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98057 - Fri Sep 01 2017 06:54 PM

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...





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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98058 - Fri Sep 01 2017 07:58 PM

Quote:

Five days is a long time in Hurricane forecasting!

Just for fun, this was a post on August 20th with Harvey 5 days out from landfall:

Quote:

cieldumort (Sun Aug 20 2017 12:12 PM ):
WSI Calibrated ECMWF EPS now showing a greater than 90% chance that Harvey regenerates.

While the GFS runs should not yet be fully discounted, it is my personal opinion that the new GFS (since the July 19 upgrade) has not performed as admirably with Atlantic tropical cyclones as might be desired, and even in the face of a dramatic convective resurgence this morning, the latest runs (20/0z, 20/06z and now the 20/12z) still do mostly nothing with now x-Harvey... maybe a TD crossing Belize, or forming in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, at best. These runs now run entirely counter to the Euro, and defy the eyes.

Now awaiting the restarting of the TC-specific models HWRF & HMON. Run, runs, run.




Next post:

Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 01:43 PM ):
Harvey looks alive and well.Should be an upgrade soon.





And then...


Quote:

ftlaudbob (Sun Aug 20 2017 10:56 PM ):
And just like that, it died out again.





Harvey did not die, and by the morning of August 22nd it was a totally different story:

Quote:

cieldumort (Tue Aug 22 2017 09:30 AM ):
Model consensus for south Texas this Friday is growing much more concerning. HWRF, HMON, GFS, ECMWF, GEM & GFS Ensemble Members with almost 100% unanimity on a landfalling Texas hurricane Cat 1 to Major. Some runs hang it around just inland, others around the coast - with potential for very severe flooding if either of those scenarios verify (inland and/or coastal)...








Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 07:59 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98059 - Fri Sep 01 2017 08:31 PM

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98061 - Fri Sep 01 2017 08:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yes,that is how it went down.Havey was dead on the 20th.




Yup, Harvey was dead, a blurry splash of clouds on a sat, and barely that.

Been looking at Hurricane history. Katrina five days out from LA, was approaching and landing on south FL as a Cat 1...no mention of New Orleans.

On August 13, 2004 Charlie did a sudden hard right, so Port Charlotte and everybody else in its path was taken by surprise even though aware there was a storm passing by. That was less than a few hour judo move from the predictions that nailed Tampa Bay and barely four days since Charlie was named.

So until Irma is two or three days out, all bets are off with me.




I was in Fort Lauderdale for Katrina.And Wilma later that season.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Sep 01 2017 08:46 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98067 - Sat Sep 02 2017 07:43 AM

Morning model runs:

0z Euro: Very close but just north of the Caribbean Islands Tues-Wed, Through the Central and northwest Bahamas sep 9-11th. Cat 4 landfall near Charleston, SC overnight Sep 11-12th.

6z GFS: Misses Caribbean and Bahamas, turns north, closest approach to NC on sep 10 (faster than Euro), landfall near Atlantic City, NJ in the morning of Sep 10th. cat 3. and quickly moves out.

HWRF has cat 4 north of the Caribbean islands, HMON as well.

Canadian misses Caribbean and Bahamas and turns Irma out to sea (West of Bermuda, East of the US)

The GFS Ensembles concentrate around NC/VA this morning.

Two camps are faster moving storm GFS/GEFS that moves further north and the euro which has a slower moving storm, caught behind and further south. Euro also has a stronger storm and is much more dangerous for the Bahamas.

Too soon to tell beyond 5 days, but looking better for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but mixed for the Bahamas, and east coast seems more likely than not for a landfall. Where is still up in the air, SC/NC/VA seems to be the current midpoint. But FL/GA and north of VA still have a high chance, but unless the timing drastically changes Florida seems less likely. Out to sea is still a possibility as well, more likely than Florida.



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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98069 - Sat Sep 02 2017 12:40 PM

12Z GFS:

Misses Bahamas to the north, landfall Delmarva Peninsula as a cat 4 on the morning of Sep 11 then quickly moves over DC and into the great lakes from there.


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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98070 - Sat Sep 02 2017 02:31 PM

12Z Euro running, a bit south of the last run so far, this time it goes through or clips the islands of the Northeast Caribbean on Wednesday, comes close or clips the Turks and Caicos in the bahamas, but stays mostly north of them on Friday. Then turns out to sea.



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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98071 - Sat Sep 02 2017 03:52 PM

The Euro ensembles are mostly west of the Euro operational itself. A lot depends on the position of the trough currently over the eastern half of the country, in a few days it may split and move southwest (more likelihood of US impact), stay over the mid Atlantic (more likely for out to sea), or slip northeast (steering collapses and Irma meanders near the Bahamas for a bit). The setup for the trough/ridge is really quite delicate, so even several days from now we may not have a good idea. The operation Euro is slipping through a narrow window, so there's a fair chance the Euro will change again in the overnight run.

Current focus should on how close it gets to the Northeastern Caribbean islands, beyond that too soon to tell.


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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98072 - Sat Sep 02 2017 06:32 PM

18z GFS avoids the Caribbean barely, stays east of the Bahamas, grazes the outer banks and landfalls as a cat 4 on the south end of the delmarva peninsula the morning of Sep 11th (monday) then heads toward DC/Baltimore. I know that area has had history with "I" storms before.

Overall thoughts, Mid Atlantic most risk, then Northeast, followed by out to sea, and then Florida/GA least risk. It's going to get uncomfortably close to the NE Caribbean, Bahamas may get some of it also. Confidence in general is staggeringly low.





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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98073 - Sat Sep 02 2017 09:01 PM

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.

--------------------
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ftlaudbob
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98074 - Sat Sep 02 2017 09:42 PM

Quote:

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.




What are your thoughts on landfall?

--------------------

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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98075 - Sat Sep 02 2017 11:58 PM

0z GFS run just starting, but already a bit faster and further south around 90 hours out and slightly stronger, although it still misses the NE Carib islands to the north, it's much close to them (about half the distance) of the earlier run, not a good trend so far. Ridging also slightly stronger. Just northeast of the Turks and Caicos by Friday morning (a good deal south, now about 100nm from turks vs 200nm at 18Z) And approaching 160nm south of the old run a bit past that.

By Saturday it's slowing down, starting to feel the trough to the north, but not enough to get pulled in quickly, it may start to slow/drift just east of the northern Bahamas here.

By Sunday it's northeast of the Bahamas moving North-Northwest.

Landfall, Cat 5 near Wilmington, NC morning of Sep 11th rapidly moves inland, over Raleigh still at cat 3/4 strength, maintains hurricane strength into West Virginia.

0z CMC: Weaker hurricane, but passes through Central Bahamas on Friday, landfall near West Palm Beach Saturday Night/Sunday as a major.

0z UKmet is further southwest this run, misses Caribbean islands.

Overall trend, South and west.






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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98077 - Sun Sep 03 2017 02:46 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I am starting to suspect the US has run out of luck. If the models hold up, Irma will be pretty brutal if and when it makes landfall.




What are your thoughts on landfall?




I've been really hesitant to make much in the way of forecasts recently, I haven't really had the time and energy to follow the dynamics. And with the storm this far out. it's very possible for the models to miss something that will impact the final path of Irma. Given that. at 120 hours, there is a strong system over the great lakes, with a positive trough axis, unfortunately that system appears to lift out after that, and it looks like some weak steering currents in place, and a strong high pressure to the north and east of the system. I would imagine that would tend for a slowing system that is moving more north than west. but unable to move back east. I think that's why the models are showing landfall along the Florida through Carolina coast.

My current guess is that the trough that could pull Irma away from the US won't dig far enough south and will be lifting out leaving weak flow over the south east coast. I really don't want to pick a spot, there's just too much uncertainty. But right now I think the highest risk is between Jacksonville and the outer banks.

If there is any specific thing to watch, I think it's going to be the evolution of the trough over the eastern US. I think that'll let us know the ultimate fate of Irma.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98078 - Sun Sep 03 2017 07:07 AM

More overnight:

0z euro: Clips NE Caribbean islands (barely) with the weaker side of the storm on Wednesday (cat 3?), Over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas Friday, through Central Bahamas into Saturday Northern Bahamas by Sunday and starts heading north Sunday, (Goes through nearly all the Bahamas as a cat 4) Landfall near Wilmington, NC Cat 4 or 5 Sep 12th, then rides north through Eastern Virginia with the Outer banks and Hampton roads on the dirty side (East) of the system as it weakens.

6z GFS run mirrors the 0z with a Cat 5 landfall near Wilmington midday September 11th, then heading into West Virginia It barely clears the Caribbean islands and Bahamas to the north and east.

Again worth watching along the entire east coast and Bahamas as this still could change particularly after 4-5 days since a lot depends on the trough and ridge situation at the time. We aren't at the phase of the NE Caribbean yet, much less Bahamas, any long range models or projections are guidence on odds for future impact, I'd have a plan ready along the Bahamas, east coast regardless from Florida all the way to Boston, and start implementing things as the odds go up, particularly when watches/warnings go up, which could come this coming Saturday or so for the US.


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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98080 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:56 AM

12Z GFS starts by not quite going as far south, but a bit further west, stays north of the Caribbean islands (but still very close) by Thursday it's north of Puerto Rico, but slightly west of the earlier run, so Irma is forecast to move a bit faster.

By Midday thursday it's slightly southwest of the prior run, and midday thursday it's very close to the Central Bahamas as a cat 4/5. (40nm sw of the earlier run) Saturday morning it's over the northern part of Cat island in the Bahamas

Then over Great Abaco as a cat 4/5 on Sunday (Sep 10th) where it starts to head north.





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IsoFlame
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98081 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:08 PM

I don't think Irma will continue to burrow WSW as deeply as last 12 hours for several reasons. First, historic tracks for the hurricanes of the similar strength in the same part of the Atlantic basin (though not many) did not continue south of due west. Second, the ridge north of Irma that has nudged her south of west appears to have a bit of weakness a few degrees either side of 50W, This very subtle weakness along the "belly" of the Bermuda high could allow her to track above 17N a bit longer during the next 24 hours. If this pans out, Irma may not bottom out at 16.4N as currently forecast in 36 hours.

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MichaelA
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98082 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:40 PM

Definitely need to pay attention to Irma now even though still over a week out. I just checked the FSU model site and a couple of them are a bit disconcerting for those of us in The Bahamas and Florida. Everyone's "radar" should be on from the Florida keys through Nova Scotia.

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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #98084 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:49 PM

Quote:

I don't think Irma will continue to burrow WSW as deeply as last 12 hours for several reasons. First, historic tracks for the hurricanes of the similar strength in the same part of the Atlantic basin (though not many) did not continue south of due west. Second, the ridge north of Irma that has nudged her south of west appears to have a bit of weakness a few degrees either side of 50W, This very subtle weakness along the "belly" of the Bermuda high could allow her to track above 17N a bit longer during the next 24 hours. If this pans out, Irma may not bottom out at 16.4N as currently forecast in 36 hours.




Maybe, it's sometimes hard to tell if the upper air is exactly as analyzed, particularly without any real world soundings available. The big test will be when the Gulfstream does datasampling around Irma to get better data for the models to ingest. I think the first one will be taking off tomorrow afternoon.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Irma Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98086 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:53 PM

Irma deserves monitoring. She is a long way out and it's too soon to tell how far the trough digs in to the east U.S. and how far the Bermuda high persists to the west.

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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98087 - Sun Sep 03 2017 02:27 PM

Going to start out this reply by saying that I have been especially bullish on Irma's potential intensity for a couple of days now, and my confidence in this has only increased with each and every day. However, there are caveats. Subtle, but very possible changes in Irma's track, and/or degree of shear imparted by the upper low to her northwest, and/or potential for downstream effects from a (possible, but not yet NHC endorsed) development in the southern Gulf, etc. could have profound and as-of-yet unforeseen impacts on her future intensity, as well as track.

Given what is already known, plus considering the known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, my confidence for Irma's top wind speed during her lifetime breaks down along the following percentile basis (Please keep in mind, this is the "Lounge," and as such, I am taking wide liberty in sharing this, which is not, by any means, an official forecast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center and its sister agencies for official information.

Opinion only. Top 1-min sustained wind speed attained by Irma at some point
High-end Cat 5 (175+ MPH) 35%
Cat 5 (160-170 MPH) 30%
Cat 4 (130-155 MPH) 25%
Cat 3 (Already attained) 10%

Put another way, it is my opinion (only) that Irma has almost a two-in-three chance of becoming a Cat 5 at some point before final landfall or dissipation at sea, and a 90% chance that Irma at least becomes a Cat 4.

I am rarely this bullish on a system. I was very bullish on Harvey, for example, but not nearly so much on any of the other TCs we had up until that point in the Atlantic basin this year.

Recon is finally getting in to Irma later today, which will help resolve some of the known unknowns, and maybe even some of the unknown unknowns. I will also be paying especially close attention to what happens with the Gulf trof, as well as (and they are of course all connected to greater or lesser degrees), the evolution of the Bermuda High. Again, recon flights will be very beneficial to my own opinions, as well as future model runs and official NHC forecasts.

Should Irma become both a large and very powerful hurricane (very plausible), locations prone to surge in her path may need to evacuate. Again, this is still highly speculative at this point, not an official forecast, and several days out.

- Ciel


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MissBecky
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98088 - Sun Sep 03 2017 03:24 PM

I haven't seen any talk here of the UKMET, which seems to be doing a very good job so far this year. What is the general opinion on this model? As a SWFL resident I'm particularly uneasy about its latest runs.

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M.A.
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98089 - Sun Sep 03 2017 03:26 PM

I agree with every point you made. Looking at the HMON it has a peak intensity at 142-149kts. Most of the other models are staying around 125-135kts. This is a monster in the making. The overall size of the storm is what I am concerned with. By the Navgem it looks the size of Alaska in the central Bahamas. At the peak wind speeds of 170+ is it out of the realm of possibility to have TS force winds and surge effects 200 miles from the center? I remember Gilbert, Mitch, Katrina, Rita Wilma. This storm looks to have the potential to be as strong and much larger overall size. I'm not trying to hype this storm, but it doesn't look good for any thing in its wide path.

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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #98090 - Sun Sep 03 2017 04:25 PM

Quote:

I haven't seen any talk here of the UKMET, which seems to be doing a very good job so far this year. What is the general opinion on this model? As a SWFL resident I'm particularly uneasy about its latest runs.




UKMET is fairly reliable as a TC genesis tool. There are other models more fine-tuned to TC track and intensity. Also, its run goes out to 168, whereas other Globals being discussed here in the Lounge can be 240 +

As of the 0z 03 Sep run, the UKMET drives Irma towards South Florida, but that's where that particular model's run ends. To that point, its track is very similar to the other primary and consensus models.

Peak intensity up to the end of the Oz run is 139 knots at 925mb (roughly 2500'), which could correspond to about 140 MPH or so at the surface.


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98091 - Sun Sep 03 2017 05:18 PM

With each model run Irma gets further west and south.. not really happy with this trend. That cone is starting to get a little too close for comfort here in S FL. Every model has her going thru Herberts Box now. Right now she is pretty compact with hurricane force winds only 35 miles from the center.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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WestFLJess
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98092 - Sun Sep 03 2017 05:25 PM

yo.

JMII- I 2nd what you are saying about FL. 2 days ago it kept shifting north & east, now it's shifting south and west.

I guess we won't really know if it's going to hit FL until it goes over the islands (Leeward) & maybe Puerto Rico?

I haven't been on here in awhile but started coming on here back when Charley hit FL in 2003.

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Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98093 - Sun Sep 03 2017 06:22 PM

Afternoon models
18Z GFS misses Caribbean islands to the north, (barely,they will still get affects), Friday morning over Turks and caicos cat 4, and moves through nearly all of the Bahamas through Sunday where it's over Great Abaco as a cat 5.then moves due north, staying east of Florida. Landfall near Wilmington, NC Overnight between Sep 11 and 12th as a cat 5 hurricane,

12Z Euro is further west over the Bahamas, but curves rapidly out to sea (Closest point to the us is sept 12).

Overall the entire East coast should be watching Irma, and hoping the out to sea scenario happens (like the Euro) Things are not looking good for the Bahamas, and the Northeast Caribbean may get some issues from the storm, but hopefully misses the core of Irma. Trying to specify where Irma will go at this point beyond 5 days is irresponsible, the western shifts are troubling for Florida, but odds still favor NC or out to sea. These aren't great odds though. So it really is too soon for any serious speculation on continental UI impacts.

GFS is likely overdoing the low pressures as well, it's very unusual to have cat 5 conditions last very long, so I'm hoping that is just overkill on the models part, odds are its way too strong (although Irma may very well be still very strong)


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Psyber
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98094 - Sun Sep 03 2017 06:43 PM

Ok,

First I have to say it's interesting that everybody is ignoring the cyclonic system to the north/north west of Irma. I get that it's not that likely to get too strong but there's a pretty clear eye and cyclonic activity there. The reason I bring this up is that system without a doubt is affecting Irma. I'm going to say that it's going to weaken anything looking to chew on Irma to the N/N/W. Simply this is going to help keep Irma South of doing a kissing run up Florida.

The N.Equitorial current isn't exactly pushing Irma North either.

Now for my Irma DEEP thoughts.

First, i'm going to point out the obvious.

If Irma stays south, it's going to nail the D-R and Cuba (we're going to ignore D-R and Cuba's Hurricane hits because it doesn't matter if it's a 1 or a 5, NOBODY ever needs (or gets) aid on the D-R or Cuba.--sarcasm because we all know it's true)

IF Irma hit's Cuba she's going to drop intensity and strength in the mountainous regions(as usual) if the eye gets anywhere near rolling over the island. It's at that point where I believe Irma goes north.

The cone is currently north of the D-R and Cuba however this S/S-W push(and that baby system to the North keeps weakening the Gulf Stream) is still ongoing so it very well could get there.

My personal opinion is that the S-S/W continues and it keeps pushing Irma West. Admittedly my own personal weakness is predicting how Western/North Western ridges(with the Gulf Stream) affect storms but Irma just looks more south than people are thinking IMO.

Edited by Psyber (Sun Sep 03 2017 06:49 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #98095 - Sun Sep 03 2017 07:07 PM

That upper level low is one of the things pushing Irma south of due west right now, but it should move off in time, that, and even other waves far away from Irma are making it a very complex system to track. I wouldn't doubt the NHC track though, but wouldn't be surprised to see it move a bit more south. I'm concerned that if the trend doesn't end soon the Caribbean Islands under watch right now may get a direct hit.

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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98096 - Sun Sep 03 2017 07:31 PM

Quote:

MikeC on August 29th at 7:39 am:
"0Z Euro takes 93L into the Caribbean islands sep 6, then toward Puerto Rico Sep 7 and Turks & Caicos into the Bahamas on September 8th. As a hurricane."




Not a bad forecast for five days ago compared to what is a possibilty today.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98097 - Sun Sep 03 2017 09:00 PM

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect.Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?

--------------------

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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98098 - Sun Sep 03 2017 09:12 PM

Quote:

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect. Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?



"...the polar effect"? OK, my initial Google search did not provide anything I can relate to a storm. So I'll bite.

What is the "polar effect"??


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Psyber
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98099 - Sun Sep 03 2017 09:14 PM

Quote:

Given the projection of a cat 4 or 5,I am a little surprised that no one has brought up the polar effect.Could she be pulled north and hug the coast?




Depends on the size. Irma is growing and at some point, it will make its own rules. A solid Cat 5 going pretty much west takes a high the size of the continental USA to bounce it north.

We'll have to see how many eyewall replacements she does with a relatively calm path right now.

These fast builders seem to have a mind of their own and only answer to MikeC's will.


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M.A.
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #98100 - Sun Sep 03 2017 10:20 PM

HMON 18Z run brings the max winds too 162knts and the pressure to 856hpa. The HWRF to 145knts /910hpa. If memory serves me right, 882hpa was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic.

Edited by M.A. (Sun Sep 03 2017 10:27 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #98103 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:26 PM

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98104 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:30 PM

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




You are truly the voice of reason.And as she gets stronger the crazies will come out.Thank you.

--------------------

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98106 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:39 PM

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.









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Psyber
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98107 - Sun Sep 03 2017 11:46 PM

Quote:

Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)

The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.




I truly believe that the low to the N-N/W has caused/facilitated this continued south turn/flattening of the storm. Some might not have seen some of the satellite of it but for several hours it had the characteristics of a very organized system. It's turning into a big rain storm now but it's done the damage we didn't want to see. It's obviously being pulled apart now but. It's kept Irma in warmer waters, kept Irma out of the same sheer that's pulling the other low apart.

I see Irma staying north of Hispaniola however it's going to be getting some serious effects. For me, as bad as it is for Hispaniola and Cuba getting hit with hurricane effects, them being able to pull some strength out of the storm is better than it walking right at Florida as an H4 or H5.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98108 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:23 AM

thx for sharing. and not only a Cat 5 but Atlantic record 881 mbar!

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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Bev
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98109 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:25 AM

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and CMC are in fairly close agreement now with a S. Fla landfall or very near scrape.

What is going on with the GFS pressure, an anomaly?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98110 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:58 AM

see above 10PM the HMON called it first and much stronger than even the GFS

Curious to know MA's links to see exact data from the runs? Thx

--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH


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Marknole
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98111 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:09 AM


Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.






And the 5:00 EDT update continues that trend. Time to take this seriously..


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MichaelA
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98112 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:38 AM

All of the 00Z model runs are beginning to cluster on a severe hurricane impacting the entire FL peninsula. We'll see if the 06Z and 12Z runs continue the trend. At any rate, I'm going to start executing my preparedness plan before everyone begins to panic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 13/8/4


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98113 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 AM

The trend seems to be that it's going into the GOM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090051.shtml?cone#contents

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Sep 04 2017 07:28 AM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98114 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:28 AM

The 06Z run of the GFS calls for Irma going right up the spine of the Florida peninsula. i am starting to prepare my plans.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98115 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:34 AM

These models will change several times in the next few days.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98116 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:35 AM

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98118 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:40 AM

0z Euro joins the GFS heading toward Cuba/ scraping the north coast then cuts north just east of Florida, and over the Western Bahamas, with a NC/SC border landfall on September 13th as a at 3/4.

6z GFS is similar at first to the 0z, but moves deeper into Cuba and exits north near HAvana, then crosses over Key West as a cat 4/5 on the morning of Sep 11th, then Landfalls again near Naples then rides just east of I-75 all the way up into Tennessee. Still overdoing pressures the whole way, but a major cat 4/5 the entire time.

Fortunately there is still some time and beyond 4 days the forecast becomes a bit difficult, so this will likely change, it may shift further west and go into the Gulf, or shift back east, the chances of no landfall (out to sea) are going down very quickly though. Continue to watch and monitor the system, the GFS's pressures are unrealistic especially with land interaction, but the idea of a major is not.

I suspect the models will shift (Again) today and tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98120 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:44 AM

Quote:

Can someone please explain to me what Herbert's Box is and where do I look for it? Ty!




Geographic area defined by 1970's NHC forecaster Paul Hebert where statistically any hurricane passing through them has greater odds of affecting Florida than outside of it, more of a statistical thing than anything else, it's not a hard rule by any means. It's outlined on the South Florida Water management model chart.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98121 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:45 AM

Post adjustment

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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98122 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:49 AM

Herbert Box. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98123 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:50 AM

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.












--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jumaduke
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98124 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:51 AM

Hebert's Box is named for forecaster Paul Hebert, who determined that the majority of strong hurricanes that hit South Florida in the last 100 years had also passed through one of two specific regions in the Caribbean Sea. One Hebert Box is positioned near the Cayman Islands, while the other incorporates the Virgin Islands. Basically, if Irma passes over the Virgin Islands, Miami better watch out. Wikipedia isn't always the best source, but here's that link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

--------------------
Go Gators!


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98125 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:56 AM

Quote:

Quote:

0z GFS Run:
Updated as it comes in:
Starts off similar to the last run,Irma's obviously over warmer water now and we may wake up to a stronger hurricane.
Are you saying this is a genuine scenario?

By 36 hours, it's slightly south of the prior GFS Run, maybe 15 or 20 nm, but generally stays the same course until at least 42 hours out.

By Wednesday morning it's getting dangerously close to Barbuda, eyewall goes over Barbuda, then St. Maarten and Anguilla. By the evening it's over the British Virgin Islands (US gets some, but not as much as the northern British VI)

It stays north of Puerto Rico (to avoid the inner core), but still gets tropical storm force and maybe hurricane force along the northern side of PR.

Closer to HIspaniola this run, hits cat 5 late Thursday night as it nears the Turks and Caicos, and over them Friday morning.

Slips west of the Turks and Caicos Friday night, between Cuba and the Bahamas.

Saturday morning just offshore Cuba, then rides the northern coastline of Cuba. Sunday morning drifts north from Cuba into the Florida straits.

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

Back offshore by St. Augustine by the end of the night, still a major another landfall in central Georgia.

Automatic winner for most insane GFS vs Florida run of all time.

Posting it here for the record, 10th straight US landfall prediction for Irma.















If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Beaker
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98126 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:57 AM

Any idea on when the data from the recon flights will be in the models? (If not already).

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98127 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:06 AM

Recon data was in the model runs starting with this mornings 0z runs, they'll be able to send more planes when it gets closer, right now its still east of the Caribbean.

For Florida it just means going over the details of the hurricane plan, if the worst case of GFS pans out, it would mean incredible amounts of evacuations north through central Florida, and roads would be jammed up into Georiga. Other than going over a few options personally, I would wait until the system is a bit closer to the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola to start making harder calls.


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Bev
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98128 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:13 AM

There's a plane in there now, but I don't know when that data will be incorporated into the models. Good question.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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B.C.Francis
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98129 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:37 AM

I primarily watch weather hourly because of all the outdoor functions that I do where I work at the Crowne Plaza Oceanfront. From what I see this morning Florida seems to be in the crosshairs or close to it. We here at the hotel are scheduling a meeting to review our preparation plans in case we need to put them into affect. We had a good plan for Matthew and it worked great. I hope we don`t have to implement it again this year. I`ll be living on CFHC for the next 6-8 days. All in all it looks like some part of the south east is going to get some rude weather.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98132 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:05 AM

A couple of quick points for all of us to keep in mind.

Always best not to focus too much on the exact center line forecast track -

*Average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. A simple rounding error could have Irma tracking over the islands and into the GOM, and all but miss Florida. Or, possibly, recurving out to sea and not touching any land directly at all.

*Damaging winds, extreme rainfall and tornadoes extend well out from any hurricane's center.

The right time to prepare for a hurricane if you live where they historically can strike is always, and now.


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98134 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:28 AM

Good advice! Just be prepared...I sent my husband and sons out to get more water, gas and propane tanks. If you have a generator, make sure you have enough fuel to use it. Also...with it this far out, you may want to think about getting flood insurance. I did that yesterday. Hurricane insurance does NOT cover flooding from a hurricane. Just stay safe no matter where it goes.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98135 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:34 AM

Quote:

Category 5 landfall upper Keys, headed north AM of Sep 11th, maintains strength through Lake Okeechobee with dirty side of storm going through the populated areas of south Florida. Over Orlando (Still cat 4) by afternoon

If this happens,and we don't know that it will,it would be the biggest natual disater in U.S. history given that angle and the layout of Florida.




That model run is too horrible to even think about

I never paid attention to ONE model, but the south and west trend has continued over the last few updates with all models coming into a general agreement. The track has been steady W followed by a turn to the N, the a NE curve. The difference now is Irma runs longer W thus putting her in Cuba instead of the Bahamas. This means the N turn brings the track VERY close to the S FL regardless. So I am pretty much on full alert now.

Looking for forward to more aircraft data to help establish the strength and location of the blocking Bremuda high to the N. Next we have trough strength and timing as that is looking iffy - it might become a cut off low and not the pushing force once predicted. Her motion is still WSW so in the next update we should see W, followed by WNW. Anymore S and the west coast of FL starts to become a worry as we looking at a potential Charley situation. Seems hard to believe a storm that looked like a threat to Eastern Bahamas just 2 days ago could become a GOM event is pretty remarkable.

Only good news for now continues to be the small size of hurricane force winds unfortunately that too is predicted to change. Need to hope this front pushing the US builds a nice wall and kicks Irma back where she came from (the sea). If not... well it will be panel time again. Wondering if we will have a Matthew-like event with a coastal rider.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98136 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:37 AM

Current pattern suggests a window for Irma to nudge WNW today (although less likely). Otherwise, continued WSW to W track likely to continue.. putting more islands at risk of more substantial impacts. Right Front Quadrant in play.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98137 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM

12Z GFS run is going, at 42 hours out it's nearing Barbuda, about the same as the last run. By Wednesday morning southern eyewall over Anguilla and St. Martin, slightly north of the prior run (15-20nm).

Early Thursday morning the center of Irma would be 75nm north of the north coast of Puerto Rico, which is about 25nm further north than the earlier run.

Cat 4/5 over Turks and Caicos Friday morning, and by Saturday morning its west of there, but further away from the Cuban coastline than earlier runs. (50 vs 10 nm) this run keeps it north of Cuba.

Sunday morning Cat 5 very near South Florida, coming in just north of Key Largo Sunday afternoon. Keeps moving north with the Core and east side over Metro Miami, may exit back over the Atlantic near Ft. Pierce Monday morning, then clips Cape Canaveral before noon, Still Cat 4.

Another cat 3/4 landfall near Savannah, GA Late Monday night weakens quickly, but still a hurricane as it nears Charlotte, NC.

Again we go over these models to see trends not exact landfall information, this morning was extra far west, now its shifting a bit further east, still not good for the Southeast US and Florida.






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MichaelA
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98138 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:41 AM

When do the 12Z runs drop? Waiting to see if they shift more to the West. The possibility of a very dangerous hurricane in the GOM is not out of the realm of possibilities.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 13/8/4


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #98140 - Mon Sep 04 2017 12:36 PM

Two days from now we could be talking about a Cat 5 Irma hitting Houston, TX...

Yea, I know, unlikely, but just the shift from 24 hours ago reminds us how much things change in a very short period of time.


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M.A.
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98141 - Mon Sep 04 2017 01:13 PM

Agreed, but you also have to remember we are just getting real data now. Prior to the first aircraft pass, its all sat data. Nothing replaces actual dropsonde and flight recorded data. We all know the models are getting better every year. But still if someone were to ask " where this thing is going?" We all have to still shrug and say anywhere from here to there. But we certainly have a better idea than we did 10 years ago.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98143 - Mon Sep 04 2017 01:31 PM

I believe with the better data input the track won't very too much from what it is now, maybe a bit west, maybe a bit east, but generally what we see is what we get, including the possibility for further up the east coast and out to sea, or slightly west for an north central or eastern Gulf hit. Middle is Florida, and this has shifted from NC/SC to here to be the most likley. (Although there is still a great deal of uncertainty) I think the models may trend east a bit, then back west over the next few days, it's going to be close enough to cause watches/warnings along Florida I do believe, maybe as early as Friday afternoon/Evening for eventual landfall somewhere Sunday or Monday.

HMON (replacement for the older GFDL) is a hurricane specific model that tends to do pretty well with developed systems like Irma, it only goes out a few days as well. The models in general are pretty tightly in agreement in the 4 day range. HWRF is similar, both show Irma become very large and intense systems, the ocean temps north of Cuba are some of the highest in the Atlantic so the energy is there.

HMON run keeps it north of Cuba and gets below 900mb, HWRF passes it right through Cuba (ends with it barely back in the Caribbean then turning it right back north into Cuba 955mb vs 872mb on the HMON, which doesn't take it over land)

Irma is still east of the Leewards, so we have a few days to watch it.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98146 - Mon Sep 04 2017 02:17 PM

12Z Euro has Irma moving similar pattern over Barbuda early Wednesday morning, and Anguilla and St. Martin get the core later that morning, then cuts through the British Virgin islands late in the afternoon core stays north of Puerto Rico.

Northern edge of the Core along the Turks/Caicos Thursday night. Well clear of Hispaniola to the north. Does pass directly over the Inagua Islands early Friday morning as a cat 3/4.

Seems to be a bit further northwest on this run.

By Saturday morning it's between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba (closer to Cuba). Cat 4 near the same position as the 12ZGFS heading nw.

Landfall Miami or razors edge close (Western eyewall over MIA/FTL) Midday Sunday 926mb (High end cat 4)

Back over water Monday heading north.

Cat 3/4 landfall Savannah, GA Tuesday Morning, Sep 12th



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TheOtherRick
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98147 - Mon Sep 04 2017 02:44 PM

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98149 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:06 PM

Quote:

You can evacuate the barrier islands, but for the people of Florida, there's no place to run. Not like you can head to the other side of the state. And anyone that thinks you can evacuate Florida northward on the interstates hasn't driven on them lately. it's bumper to bumper already. Hard to believe it could be that strong that long over land.


Charlie wasn't supposed to retain speed and energy too long after landfall, yet my parents experienced almost 130mph winds off of Lake Pierce that nearly destroyed their house just outside of Lake Wales....they CAN retain speed over Florida.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98151 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:48 PM

Euro ensembles, median is right through the Keys and up the spine, this is a west shift from earlier runs of the ensembles



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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98152 - Mon Sep 04 2017 03:49 PM

Let's all hope that the 5pm advisory shoves it east and makes it a "fish spinner"; but I'm guessing that's not going to happen. I have friends that live in Tampa saying "This will NEVER hit us." I'm also telling my relatives that live in the NE to get ready. They say the same thing. I'm prepared, I guess that's all you can do.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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leecherney
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98153 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:04 PM

I'm in Delray Beach, with a house that has a generator and impact glass. We are still flying to NY Friday morning.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98155 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.

It's too early to tell with Irma. I am making my plans to make plans and that may eventualy turn to taking actions .i am just saying that it may be time to plan to make plans in the entire Florida peninsula. Please don't attack me for saying this. There seems to be a note on this board of one-upmanship. Know what I mean?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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madmumbler
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98156 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:18 PM

Then they're idiots because I'm in Tampa and I'm scared poopless right now this thing will come through as higher than a Cat 2, regardless of where it actually makes landfall.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: madmumbler]
      #98157 - Mon Sep 04 2017 04:39 PM

No, I didn't mean to imply that they are idiots. It could turn east (doubting that at this point) but you never know. I have no idea where it's going---I'm just saying people need to be prepared. I had a woman from TX tell me not to forget life jackets. I never would have thought about buying them. Good advice!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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doug
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98158 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:16 PM

I really don't know what you are talking about. It isn't unusual to be on alert. We should be. But this won't be Harvey if it does strike Florida it will move along in hours What my family did today was going over our plans and insuring we are prepared...as prepared as we can be. Tomorrow is an important day for Florida. 5 day cones tend to be fairly accurate. If things stay as they are now the storm my well turn to the east of the peninsula.

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98159 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:22 PM

Just stocked up on a few things. Walmart was a bit of a madhouse which is not unusual for a holiday, but they DID have a LOT of water. Worker said they had a semi full of water show up this morning. It was running out the door pretty quickly along with D batteries, lanterns and any other supplies folks could think of. Harvey has spooked a lot of folks back into respect for hurricanes. Friend of mine in West Palm Beach found the water all gone at the local Publix by 10am this morning. Store should be able to restock multiple times before the weekend. I really don't like the looks of the setup with this storm....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #98160 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:33 PM

We appreciate the status report on the goods and services and so early. Just goes to reinforce that many people are aware.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98161 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:46 PM

My wife is diabetic and has insulin that needs refrigeration. We are five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay in Pinellas County, on a slight ridge so dry until a 20 foot storm surge. But with old oak trees are everywhere we could possibly be a few days without power when a high wind comes by.

I see several hurricane shelters in the area, and one "special needs" shelter. Would this be an option for a generator powered refrigerator for insulin?

I think I'll order a car cigarette powered cooler that we can plug into our car for her meds...

We may send her on the road, but the last time Pinellas County was evacuated the gridlock on the bridges was crazy and several friends eventually made it to Orlando to be hammered there when it was calm here (Charlie).

I'll ride the storm out here, as foolish as it is. Unless a cat 5 totally aims for Gulfport and St Pete...


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98162 - Mon Sep 04 2017 05:55 PM

Quote:

I'm in Orlando and I'm in the area that the rest of the people of South Forida evacuate to!!!! I went through the canes of 2004.




Some of these models runs put pretty much EVERYONE in FL in some kind of tropical event. Charley did plenty of damage in central FL because our state is low (no hills) and the southern half has Lake O and the Everglades to give storms some water to draw up. Wilma's strength showed that. My normal plan is (as indicated) to head to Orlando because there are lots of hotels and generally doesn't get big winds. However that might not work if Irma tracks up the middle. A more western track puts most of FL on the dirty side, plus the Big Bend area could feel effects. A more eastern track likely gives us a stronger storm (using the energy from the Gulfstream) but would keep the really bad damage on just the eastern shoreline communities provided the eye wall hugs the coast.

The evacuation of the Keys will be critical if things play out as currently predicted since just driving to Miami/Ft Laud/Naples isn't really getting out of harms way. Plus the time required to get everyone out using just one 2 lane road puts massive pressure on our friends down there.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98163 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:05 PM

Totally on the same page as you are. Winds were tough here in Orlando in 2004, but nothing like the west or east coast through the 3 canes that hit.

Btw. Just heard that State of Emergency is in effect from Governor Rick Scott.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98164 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:25 PM

Coming in late to the 18Z, anyway slightly north in the near term, over Turks and caicos Friday morning, Landfall near Key Largo Cat 5 Sunday morning, and rides up the entire spine of Florida inland, still a major hurricane over Orlando when it moves there overnight Sunday into Monday, the up to just west of Jacksonville Monday morning, still a hurricane, and doesn't give up hurricane strength until around Augusta, GA or slightly north of there Tuesday morning.

Today's 18Z is faster than yesterday's 18Z.

Good, it moves fast, bad, category 5 winds and surge dwindling to Category 3 hitting the entire east coast of Florida and well inland. Those in south florida would start to see some of Irma's bands Saturday, with the worst not being until Sunday morning.





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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98165 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:40 PM

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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GoBigSurf
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98166 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:44 PM

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #98167 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM

Quote:

First, thanks again for the great people here that I found back in 2004 when Francis and Jean raked across Martin/St Lucie County. Was very stressed with a very pregnant wife at the time!

Local businesses were hopping this morning selling out of water in St Lucie County (Central FL east coast). Good to see locals getting prepared. Going to check with my family in the upper Keys to see what they are planning.

If Irma decides to ride up the "spine" of Florida, what kind of water surge would the central East coast of FL see? I guess it would depend if it sticks at Cat4 or whatever strength it holds, but if it stays in the middle of FL, the east coast would get less surge right?

This South to North direction is not going to make it easy to get out of the way. I am worried about those older homes in the middle of the State that have never really experienced this kind of wind, and like others have mentioned, old Oaks, etc that are going to add to the overall mess.




The east coast would be on the dirty side of the storm and given the counter clock motion would also get the worst storm surge.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #98168 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:53 PM

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.


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LilE
Registered User


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98169 - Mon Sep 04 2017 06:56 PM

They aren't talking to much about the Gulf Coast, well they have on and off. I'm not being critical, I just wish they had a crystal ball. lol I'm in Panama City up in the Panhandle. When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?

I live with my 84 year old Mom. she's old and I'm chronically ill. We have no family or friends to help.

My parents lost their house in Hurricane Opal 1995 and were displaced for a year. We had to mandatory evacuate then and they lived in town. the sheriffs were going door to door telling people to leave, if they wouldn't they gave them body bags and asked them to write #s for next of kin on their arms. The local media even left. They did not reverse flow the traffic so we sat on I-10 for 7 hours in bumper to bumper traffic as far as you could see with a lot of hysterical people. No police anywhere. People coming from Pensacola, Ft. Walton and then P.C. were all alone on I-10. When the weather started coming in we actually thought we were going to die on I-10, sounds funny to me now but it was pretty scary.
Just a bit of background and I'm new here.

Yes, I'm fretting a bit right now!

Its nice to meet everyone and if I'm not posting proper info I'll be in the graveyard, right? lol
Laura


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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: LilE]
      #98170 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:25 PM

Quote:

When do we think we will have a better understanding of forecast track info?




There are several updates each day from the National Hurricane Center which are typically disseminated by your local television stations. With each passing day we become more and more confident in the eventual track Irma will take. Therefore, it's time for you to put a plan in action. Will you stay? Evacuate? Etc..

Always follow your local emergency management's instructions. You can find them here at this link for Bay County and Panama City:

Bay County EMC


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98171 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:33 PM

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Daniel Jones
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98172 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Prospero. I had a sister that was highly dependent on insulin. In the short term, use a nice big cooler and stock up on ice. In the longer term, understand your options. A good cooler that is big and stocked should last a few days.





Thanks, OrlandoDan!

I am Googling "Insulin Coolers". There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.

We have several battery operated fans for our comfort when the power is out, and flashlights, etc. We have propane to cook food before it spoils, and canned food for regular meals. Instant coffee and creamer of course, and plenty of water (for a week anyway). So keeping her insulin cool is the main objective we need to nail down.




You may want to look into Cooluli. The one I linked, while not the most visually appealing, is at least available now via Prime One-Day for the Orlando area. I have all 3 sizes of their mini fridges, and while they're not cold enough to keep food for extended periods, they will work for keeping insulin cold enough for several days. My mother-in-law uses insulin, and we actually keep one of these plugged in and cooled for use in the event the power goes out. Also comes with plugs to use in the car or even USB power banks. Like most thermoelectric fridges, they only cool to about 40 degrees below ambient, so keep that in mind when using them.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98173 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:37 PM

YETI Roady 20 or larger Tundra.
get block ice, not cube.


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justmeinflorida
Registered User


Reged: Wed
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98174 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

There are some good solutions for maybe three pens, but for a week or so of no power the options drop off drastically. So I am looking at basic DC powered small refrigerators and realize I have my work cut out for me.




I am in the same boat regarding insulin thus the reason I'm stock piling ice NOW. Already have enough for one small cooler just from the ice marker in the fridge. I figure I'll need enough to survive 3 to 4 days without power, after that enough gas to drive to where power is (got friends in Tampa & Atlanta). The long game isn't to stay put with generators and all that nonsense, just drive to a better location once the roads are cleared. A lot of people stick around and try to "tough it out"... ummm no thanks. 3 days after Wilma it was apparent the power wasn't coming back on soon (took 10 days FYI) so we drove north and just kept tabs on situation back home. Panels were up and insurance would cover whatever we left behind.

Speaking of which - quick tip: take pictures of all YOUR stuff: Inside, outside, vehicles, furniture, etc so insurance can verify their condition. We also take pics/videos of the house with all the panels up to prove we protected our asset as best as possible.




FRIO insulin wallet gets activated with water and will keep insulin cool for 2 days, then you just wet it again to re-activate. http://www.frioinsulincoolingcase.com/how-the-frio-insulin-cooling-case-works.html


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COML43
Registered User


Reged: Mon
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98177 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:53 PM

Prospero- Also consider dry ice and stock up on crush activated sports medicine ice packs. They are VERY handy in keeping meds chilled "on the go" and in unexpected outages. -Murph

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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98178 - Mon Sep 04 2017 07:58 PM

I will say that the tall pines came down in the Orlando area in the the three canes of 2004. Live Oaks too, but a lot of pines came down. Center was only about 5 miles from me with Charley. Had some friends that had big Live Oaks come down on their house. Took months to fully repair. I won't mess with thinking Orlando residential areas that are near big trees or wooded areas are safe. Big hotel areas are safer. That's my concern, that big Live Oaks come down.

Too soon to know and probably a bit premature.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Daniel Jones]
      #98181 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:07 PM

Thanks Daniel Jones, just ordered a Cooluli which will come tomorrow free delivery (Amazon Prime).

I'm interested in the FRIO that justmeinflorida mentions, and may add that to out Diabetic home and road kit.

Insulin, and Diabetes in general definitely adds a level of concern when preparing for any kind of storm or power outage.

Thank you ALL and I am certain your info will be valuable for many others as well!

I'll copy this thread in part to the Ask/Tell forum for any further discussion...

Edited by Prospero (Mon Sep 04 2017 08:31 PM)


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Bev
Weather Guru


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98182 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:22 PM

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge *DELETED* [Re: Prospero]
      #98183 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:25 PM

Post deleted by RedingtonBeachGuy

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #98185 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:43 PM

Quote:

To those of you better at reading the model data. How far across are the hurricane winds predicted to be nearing Fla?




There are some "worst case", but realistic models rolling out now. Many of them show an "up the spine" approach that (figuratively) splits Florida in twain with the eye path.

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).

Keep an eye out, and don't panic. Take action when needed.


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leecherney
Registered User


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98186 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:48 PM

I notice the GFS went a bit west again, looks like in at Naples?

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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98187 - Mon Sep 04 2017 08:53 PM

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18Z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98189 - Mon Sep 04 2017 09:14 PM

Quote:

I'm not a pro, so looking at the HMON IRMA-11L 850 hPa Height (dam), Wind (kt), and MSLP Center (hPa) for Saturday, September 9, 2017 at 18Z, between Cuba and Florida, is the Max Wind 211.1kt an actual prediction??

Is this at the ground level???

HMON IRMA-11L...




No! This is at 850mb. You're looking for Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) - found here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

Edit: Paradoxically meteorologists measure altitude in millibars as well. Common heights are MSL, 850MB, 500MB, 200MB, 50 (and sometimes 20MB)

Edited by Doombot! (Mon Sep 04 2017 09:17 PM)


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 145
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98190 - Mon Sep 04 2017 09:20 PM

OK thanks!

So basically 145 mph at sea level. Still impressive.

Question, 850mb. What is the "mb"? I'm thinking "millibars" but have no idea how that relates to the models. Altitude? Pressure?

I may be asking something that has no quick easy answer...



Edit: just read you edit and explanation!

Edited by Prospero (Mon Sep 04 2017 09:21 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #98192 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:19 PM

Quote:

In this case, all of Florida would get hurricane force winds (perhaps not the panhandle).




Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98194 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:30 PM

Quote:



Currently hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center and TS out 140... this will likely increase so full state coverage is possible especially for areas south of Orlando. Currently Irma is still small compared to Wilma which had 90 mile wide hurricane force winds and almost unreal 230 miles worth of TS force. While you shouldn't focus on the line down the middle the worst winds/damage will occur there. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.

While bad for the islands Irma's current track should give us good radar fixes on the storm during the critical Weds/Thurs time frame when she is near Puerto Rico.




The same happened with Charlie. My parents' place is right at 50 miles east of where I live. They had 130 mph winds and incredible damage to trees and structures (80k damage to their house) while we didn't even have TS force winds. Will be interesting to see how the wind fields expand around this monster....just hope I don't see them first hand!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98195 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:32 PM

please chime in
for 24hrs the HMON and GFS have called for sub 890mbar at S FL landfall so why is the NHC at 130mph at 120 hours? thx.


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Mike V
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98196 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:39 PM

Quote:

. For example in Andrew I lived 60 miles away and so we only got borderline Cat 1 winds vs the Cat 5 winds that hit southern Dade County. The resulting difference damage wise can be quite dramatic, your talking just some tree branches snapped vs having parts of your roof ripped off. The worry is ANY small shift in the track during the land encounter means you go from 60 mph winds to 130 mph winds in your backyard thus you have to prepare as if you will see the full force of nature.





When you mention this, I was in the Eyewall of Andrew and it was not fun at all. In the aftermath, to me what was amazing was as you crossed roughly around SW 30th street on US1, it was like you crossed into the twilight zone. The amount of damage before that line was nothing compared to what was after.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina

Edited by Mike V (Mon Sep 04 2017 10:51 PM)


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M.A.
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98197 - Mon Sep 04 2017 10:47 PM

Because the HMON is the highest wind speed and the lowest pressure. They take an average for intensity of the models and make the best educated guess.

On a second note, I haven't seen any thought of the Okeechobee dike. This I think would be one of my foremost concerns if I lived south of the lake. There has been talk for years about the need to reconstruct it. I know they have worked on it. Just food for thought.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98198 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:18 PM

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue

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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98199 - Mon Sep 04 2017 11:32 PM

Total heat energy content has been rising along northern coast of Cuba

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/cahhp.gif


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98200 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:46 AM

Quote:

Okeechobee water level is 13.65 and they try to maintain it between 12.5 and 15.5 so water level isn't a problem and the dikes are substantial enough (and sloped) that I don't think wind would be an issue



That dike should be proof against any rain Irma will bring. Irma is scooting right along and inland flooding shouldn't be an issue. It was built after a storm parked over the lake and flooded the area around. I want to say the 1928 storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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Doombot!
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Continuity. [Re: justmeinflorida]
      #98203 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:05 AM

What I find intresting is the continuity between the model runs. In years past, you'd have models all over the place, sometimes as soon as <36h out.

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.

Have these two storms been easier to predict? Has the NHC reigned in their algorithms? Am I missing something?

It seems odd that for the last 48 hours most models are honing into and maintaing one general location, 5-7 days out.

D!


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TPuppy
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leecherney]
      #98208 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:43 AM

I believe that the Naples and Ft Myers area has had an enormous amount of rain and flooding in the last few weeks. Will that make any difference or has that already drained off?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98209 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:25 AM

overnight mdoel runs:

0z 6FS just north of Caribbean islands (enough for some to feel the eyewall) Starting tomorrow morning, Puerto Rico escapes the core to the north,

Turks and Caicos get a direct hit Friday early morning cat 4, it reaches cat 5 between Cuba and the Bahamas, turn north starts early Sunday, by Sunday morning cat 5 landfall in middle keys, then sw landfall south of Naplesup through state, over Orlando Monday morning, still Major, moves just west of Jacksonville into Georgia by the afternoon, still hurricane. possible loses hurricane strength near Augusta, GA late that night and moves toward Charlotte.then through the NC mountains into TN/VA and up into the great lakes.

0z Euro clips the northeastern Leewards, stays north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, goes over the Inagua islands Friday morning, landfall Cuba's north coast, Saturday morning, exits Cuba then landfalls cat 4 in middle Keys late Sunday night, near Orlando by Monday night (still strong, but maybe weakens to Cat 2). This run gets weakened by Cuba interaction but still comes up through Florida. Remains head up to Augusta and the NC mountains do the rest in.

In short very similar to the last run, slightly west, but still up through Florida, Euro does hit Cuba this run, while the GFS does not, and the GFS winds up being stronger because of it. EPS members have also shifted slightly west, of those getting into the Gulf they still turn it back into Florida.

Again, model talk is in the lounge for a reason, it's just that, the NHC forecast is the best bet, and it really is just a guess beyond 4 days or so.



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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98210 - Tue Sep 05 2017 07:39 AM

I have been tracking these things for a very long time, and I can not recall ever seeing a more perfectly shaped Hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Kraig
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98211 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:05 AM

175MPH AT 8AM!

--------------------
--------------------------------
2017 forecast 10/6/2

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Wilma ('05) and Matthew ('16)


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JMII
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Re: Continuity. [Re: Doombot!]
      #98212 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:07 AM

Quote:

With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.




Gotta assume the data, science and computer power have all increased leading to much better forecasting. I too remember when you could basically ignore the 5 day cone because it was so far off.

Overnight we had another shift S and W of said cone. This starting to look like a hybrid of a Charley / Wilma over land track. After going thru the middle to lower Keys it appears Irma would have a landfall on the SW coast between Naples and Sarasota (as Cat 4) with a track N to slightly NNE thru most of the state all the way to Jacksonville.

Given the environment Irma will likely be a Cat 5 today and maintain that (or darn close) until it reaches Puerto Rico with only ERC causes small up/down fluctuations.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Continuity. [Re: JMII]
      #98213 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM

It's a 5,175mph!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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B.C.Francis
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98214 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:19 AM

Wow, no matter what, it looks more than likely the weather should start going down hill starting Saturday if the trends continue. Florida should really be concerned and take this seriously. If it should go into the gulf people in the big bend probably get spanked not to mention the west coastal areas.. I know its 5 days out but its really coming together for a Florida major weather event. How strong is the weather system that's going to turn Irma more north? Seems like all of a sudden it makes this dramatic turn and moves N then N NE

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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98215 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:32 AM

looking at the funk top convection has slowed. no more green and more dark red. and eyewall looks jagged. ERC?

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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98216 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:43 AM

Post removed by Cieldumort



Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 05 2017 09:50 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #98217 - Tue Sep 05 2017 08:48 AM

Quick update, Harvey up to 175mph Cat 5, very bad for the islands even if there isn't a direct hit (Eyewall is huge)

6z GFS similar to 0z run but slightly east, landfall MiamI Cat 5 midday Sunday, then exits near Ft. Pierce, second landfall cat 4/5 north of Savannah late Monday.

Very limited time to update today.


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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98218 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:02 AM

It was trending West which made me believe it might keep trending that way But now the 06 GFS is back east again. We could get trends east or west but in my years watching these i have yet to see 1 go the exact path 5 days out like they have this at.

Like Charlie when the turn happens is the Key and as we know charlie was in the cone but not expected to turn till Tampa so even it it moved more west or east with the track ne ready as if it was coming to you.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 09:03 AM)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98219 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:38 AM

Looking at Clark's forecast track chart the models are flip-flopping E/W and there is a greater disagreement after the turn northward

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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98229 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:40 AM

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.

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doug
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98230 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:41 AM

Started thinking last week that this storm was on a track that resembled Donna-1960...Hmmm! hope not.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98232 - Tue Sep 05 2017 11:56 AM

Very scary visuals of the GFS model run: https://www.ventusky.com

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98233 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:08 PM

Quote:

Surprised Irma is at 180 mph with the so so convection and unimpressive pressure. It must be a very well-balanced and efficient.




Convection has been quite impressive - very cold cloud tops overnight. While there has been some warming during the morning, Irma remains a phenomenally well organized hurricane with cloud tops that are sufficiently cold, but if the trend of warming continues, we could see Irma's intensity back down some going forward later today. (TBD)

The pressure may seem to be a bit high for the 180 MPH, but keep in mind that the environmental pressures are not low to begin with, with very strong High pressure just to her north - all relative




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Rotor
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98234 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:13 PM

My take as well. Rode that one out in Cocoa Beach.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98235 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:18 PM



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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98236 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:24 PM

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 12:25 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98237 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM

Mike, I perfectly understand the "Harvey" typo in your last post! I have a request for Irma lounge visitors (outside of the impact zone) that will be very helpful in monitoring Irma as she nears my location one block off the Atlantic Ocean in east central Florida. After she makes the forecasted right turn and departs Cuba's north coast, please post any observations of eye wall diameter and current (or potential) eye wall replacements and eye diameter constrictions or expansions. Also, any significant wobbles west or east will be helpful to those within 50 miles of Irma's ultimate track. This type of information posted in the lounge helped me make final "tweaks" regarding my personal shelter in place hurricane plan (before we lost power) as Hurricane Matthew moved out of the northern Bahamas and tracked toward my location last October.

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MissBecky
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98238 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:29 PM

Quote:

Does anyone think like me the models keep trending along? I have never seen them stay on the exact path for 5 days in a row.

What time do the 12Z GFS and Euro start coming in thanks.




The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.

Tropical Tidbits


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #98239 - Tue Sep 05 2017 12:42 PM

Quote:

The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98240 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The 12Z GFS is actually still coming in right now.




Right up the east coast of FL - nightmare scenario given the population density of this area.


Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98241 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:07 PM

all the 5's I've seen have had a solid green ring on the funktop and Erma only had a little overnight and didn't even have much of the light red today.

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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98242 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:08 PM

Quote:

Would you mind posting a link to this latest run? I'm having a hard time finding it. Thank you!




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...os=0&ypos=0

https://www.ventusky.com is really good too for the visuals but might be one run behind.

Hit the play button on each site to watch the forecast over the given time period.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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WestFLJess
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98243 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:12 PM

wow.

"Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98245 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:33 PM

Paralleling the east coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge

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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98247 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:40 PM

Quote:

Paralleling the coast of FL and staying off shore actually could be ideal to keep the front right quadrant away. That could be the difference in only feeling Cat 1-3 effects versus 4/5 and would reduce storm surge




Yes off shore would be the key here, similar to Matthew. However a slightly drift to the W puts all the major cities of S FL in the eye wall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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typhoon_tipModerator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98250 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:55 PM


Particularly true given the circumstance(s) with Irma, ...folks should not focus on whether the 'eye' its self stays on or off-shore.

This GFS solution is precariously close enough for obvious reasons, but more specifically ... an expanding wind field in association with a N turning Hurricane ...from an initial pressure that has plumbed (possibly) toward or exceeding 900 mb, would be very problematic for the entire eastern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Things can and obviously will change, but as is, Irma may not be moving appreciably fast as it is making its closest pass with the southern part of the state; there may be lesser benefit of forward motion subtracting from the western semi-circle for a polar-ward turning TCs.

It is a foregone conclusion that dealing with top tier juggernaut cyclones of this nature that every aspect and action to protect lives first, and property second, should begin in earnest.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98251 - Tue Sep 05 2017 01:58 PM

Midday models (Main two):

12Z GFS:
Turks Caicos Friday morning Cat 4/5
Eyewall scrapes Miami up to West Palm Beach Sunday, Cat 5
Cat 4/5 landfall near Savannah, GA Monday afternoon
Slightly east of prior run, and keeps barely offshore the east coast of Florida, but eyewall within major met areas.

12Z Euro (Running now):
Midday tomorrow, Cat 5 landfall over St. Martin.
Clears PR to the north, still some affects though. Stays north of DR on Thursday.
Friday Midday over Inagua Island, Cat 4/5 (Of note Bay of Campeche system develops)
Saturday Midday, over Central Cuba
Sunday Midday, exiting into Florida Straits near Havana
Monday, Landfall between Naples and Ft. Myers cat 4/5 then straight north up the state, into Georgia by Tuesday.

CMC: Hits PR, Plows through Cuba, then turns north into the Gulf, landfall near Panama City Cat 2. (West outlier) Already too far south.


HMON:
Midday Sunday landfall at West Palm Beach Cat 5 (briefly, then back offshore)
HWRF:
Landfall northern Cuba coast Saturday Morning, Cat 5
Back over Water north of Cuba Sunday Morning, Cat 3 (West of Key west)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98253 - Tue Sep 05 2017 02:24 PM

Love the chart thanks. Time to edit LOL. 185/926. Which is still exactly my point very efficient considering the pressure and no green on the funktop would seem there is still room to go

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doug
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98254 - Tue Sep 05 2017 02:38 PM

The Euro and GFS are differing today after some trend toward agreement yesterday. The difference seems to be that the GFS senses a weakness in the blocking high pressure system to the NE of Florida on Sunday while the Euro seems to sense more of that ridge's influence to the north and additional higher pressure to the NW keeping IRMA south and further west on the north coast of Cuba. at 120 hours. IMO, so far this year GFS seems to have been the better of the two models when it comes to predicting movements. The HMON shifted eastward substantially.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Sep 05 2017 02:40 PM)


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eulogia
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98255 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:21 PM

I want to thank you all for the expert interpretations you've given us over the years.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98257 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:28 PM

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the GFS and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models

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StormHound
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98258 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:46 PM

Quote:

I wonder if this will effect the 5pm update track? they like the GFS and Euro and like to split the difference which to me is dumb to do but i can see the NHC having the 5pm going right up the middle of the state picking right between the 1st 2 models




Splitting the difference right now might be the thing to do. First of all, the path models look fairly evenly split between west edge of Florida and east edge, with everything in between. It's really too far out to have a great deal of confidence in any of those variations, so splitting the difference keeps everyone in Florida on alert. Favoring one or the other too much may give some people a false sense of security. The NHC has a lot of things to balance this far out, and one of them is the reaction of the people potentially in a target area. You don't want panic, but you also don't want anyone thinking they are so safe they ignore the situation. I was reading that many people did not evacuate in front of Harvey because they thought it was "only" a Category 2 storm and when it strengenthed it was too late for them to leave.

--------------------
Storm Hound
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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98260 - Tue Sep 05 2017 03:54 PM

She has now started moving WNW,as opposed to due W.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98262 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:06 PM

that is good news i think

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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: chance]
      #98263 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:24 PM

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:25 PM)


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StormHound
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98264 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:28 PM

I'm not sure of the initialization of each specific model, but they seem to now be coming together on a trip up the east side of Florida.

--------------------
Storm Hound
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TheOtherRick
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98265 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:32 PM

Quote:

Quote:

that is good news i think




No,it just keeps it on the NHC's projected path.

But good news for SOME of the islands.




1200 HWRF and UKM have it going through the mountains of Cuba longwise, then turning north. Bad news for Cuba but it should take some of the steam out of it.


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Marknole
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #98267 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:37 PM

If the trend continues more north and east...and the apparent WNW motion isn't a wobble...this could be good news. Still, that's a sharp right turn predicted. Must be sound data that the next system will dig and pick her up.

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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98269 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:52 PM

The recent models runs have spread out - some show offshore to the east, others run thru Cuba, while some push into the west coast of FL. Difficult situation here, the 5 PM update should be entertaining.

Edit: 5 PM update... not much change - the cone just got wider indicating the lack of confidence 5 days out. TS force winds reaching the Keys/S FL Saturday AM.

Edited by JMII (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:58 PM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98270 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:58 PM

5pm update:


Quote:

Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt




I thought so.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Sep 05 2017 04:59 PM)


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Major Sharpe
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98271 - Tue Sep 05 2017 04:59 PM

No entertainment value from the 5PM update. The NHC track seems to be virtually status quo on the track that eventually enters the Florida Straits and makes contact with the Keys. Versus the other, present models, it seems that the NHC is the one -- at least, for the time being -- at odds. The remaining models still seem to dictate a path that runs up the east coast of Florida. What this means, I have no idea. Is closeness to SE Florida better for that area, as it would seemingly avoid the impact of the eastern part of the storm? I will leave that to the pros- to decide.

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Steve C
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Major Sharpe]
      #98275 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:17 PM

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98279 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:53 PM

Quote:

It almost seems like NHC is waiting as long as possible on purpose before committing to where the northward turn will take Irma. In the meantime, they just keep leaving the last forcast day in the Straits. Even if they eventually decide it's an east coast scraper, they will just modify that last estimated position at the Keys to compensate. I could understand their reticence to committing to the turn. Once they do, the press will take it and run.




Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98281 - Tue Sep 05 2017 05:57 PM

18Z GFS running, a bit further north in general this run (probably too far north based on the init since it avoids the islands, and looking at radar I don't see that happening), this run goes over the southern Bahamas starting Friday over the southern tip of Andros Island on Saturday morning (Cat 5) then starts to turn north over Andros Island. North Bahamas by Sunday.

130nm east of Cape Canaveral by Sunday night.

Landfall near Wilmington, NC late Monday night Cat 5

Again, this shows it clearing the NE Caribbean islands, if that does not happen its too far north from the get go. I suspect this will wind up swinging west again in later runs, unfortunately (and I wish it cleared the islands, for their sake)



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doug
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98282 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:08 PM

That only illustrates the discrepancies in the evaluation of the ridge between the two models. This is a return of the GFS to its earlier estimates before it seemed to settle further west before the turn. Believe me I don't want the storm in the east GOM. I am terrified of the storm surge and complications that will create. However I am not sold on the GFS solution and see the west coast solution as a distinct probability and am acting acccordingly.

--------------------
doug


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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98283 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:14 PM

This is the lounge and i understand people do not like to predict but Clark if you went pure gut where do you think it goes? I understand just a opinion like many of us..

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Londovir
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98284 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:16 PM

The 18Z GFS is almost unfortunate because it looks to be way too much of an outlier compared to previous model runs and other models. This run isn't even really showing an eyewall hit on Florida, or just barely at that. Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.

That said, it sure would be a nice track if it verified. Although no path that gets close to any land is "good", this would be "better" than many other, much worse scenarios for Florida.

--------------------
Londovir


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bahamaweather
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: doug]
      #98285 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM

I've been seeing the eastward drifts in the GFS runs over the course of today.

I'm located at Abaco Island in the North-Western Bahamas and it's a no win situation no matter where this monster ends up- but am becoming slightly more alarmed with each new run that edges east.

It will be interesting to see how much latitude Irma gains tomorrow- I might really have to start to worry.

Thoughts and prayers for the Leewards, the SE Bahamas where evacuations have already started, and whoever else may be in the path of Irma.

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #98286 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:18 PM

Quote:

Exactly. And what better place to put the last forecast than directly on top of the Keys, to encourage them to get the heck out, starting now.



It's been a while since a serious wind/storm surge event hurricane has been covered Live on the Weather Channel. The "Cry Wolf" situation is a dangerous one, and so many people watch the Weather Channel waiting for a powerful storm and their team tries so hard to be in the most impressive location. We watch every time, and think, "That is nothing. Is that a kid flying a kite in the background?" Even storms near Key West we've watched on Live TV as anticipated to be strong seemed very weak.

But a storm like this could be a deadly nightmare to be anywhere close. My wife graduated High School in Key West in the '70s and is distraught over what could happen with a Cat 5 direct hit. The entire island would be destroyed.

Just because the last several passes by the keys have been mild, that does not mean it would be a safe place to hang out during an Irma.


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #98287 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:36 PM

Quote:

Very much a large departure which I expect we'll see return back to the west when it runs again in the future.




Agree. Its either a bad model run or a new trend the other models haven't picked up on yet. Is the high becoming weaker? Is it pulling out? Where is the incoming front? Is the cut off low not happening now? This is why I don't pick a favorite model and instead follow the trends on all of them. We watched run after run go S and W. This moved Irma from out to sea (many days ago), to the Bahamas and finally into FL. Now we've got a single data point showing a near miss to the east? No real confidence in that scenario at this time.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98288 - Tue Sep 05 2017 06:43 PM

It will be interesting what the 00Z Euro shows. Will it shift significantly east too

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98289 - Tue Sep 05 2017 07:04 PM

last few frames of the floater Irma getting even more of a buzz saw shape. 190mph? EDIT recon found 916

Edited by lunkerhunter (Tue Sep 05 2017 07:15 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #98292 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:00 PM

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11


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leecherney
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98294 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:12 PM

Maybe the High won't be so strong? I won't believe were Irma goes, until it went.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98295 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:47 PM

Wanted to mention the 18Z Hurricane focused models.

18Z HWRF has landfall in Big Pine Key sunday midday as a Cat 5, then south of Marco Island on the mainland cat 5 later that afternoon, run ends just east of Naples inland.

18Z HMON landfall cat 5 near Tavernier in the keys, just after midnight Sunday. mainland landfall soon after about 10 miles west of the US1 bridge, then moves over lake Okechobee and the winds up near Orlando late Sunday night where the run ends (Cat 3/4 at the time)

Of note I believe the 18Z GFS is too far north/east based on how the system initialized, (Too far north) Irma will likely be a nail biter up until the turn, which could take it from the Gulf coast to out to sea, still. If the trend lasts an entire 24 hours, I would feel better.



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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #98296 - Tue Sep 05 2017 09:51 PM

Quote:

The 8:36 pm EDT tracks have a big shift East.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11



I have to say this: I'm not great at model runs and if this was a Cat 1 I wouldn't be so worried...I live inland. My husband is saying we need to decide whether to leave by tomorrow morning. I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA? I can only imagine the traffic and I don't want to run out of gas because I know the Keys are evacuating and Miami/Dade will probably be next...if not Ft. Myers/Naples. So I-75 to me is a no-go. We don't have any toll roads, so that's a great thing (although they've already suspended tolls). I guess I'm just looking for advice and I'm not getting much from the news. Do I wait for the next run? Will she run out of steam? Sorry, just venting. I have NO idea what to do. Flying is not an option at this point or I would already be in Chicago - but we have a dog that is sick with cancer and I've looked all over the place for shelters that will take pets but there aren't many options. My son goes to Florida Southern College in Lakeland and they are closing down on Thursday...out of country students *may* get a hotel room; out of state students are pretty much on their own. Thank goodness he only lives 10 minutes away from us. I could be jumping the gun here...so if I am, please feel free to tell me. I just don't know what to do. Ty in advance.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Myles
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98297 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM

Colleen,

I'm in coastal Venice and been worrying a bit too, especially because the stores were already out of plywood this afternoon when I went to get some, but at this point it's looking like late Saturday or early Sunday at the earliest, so I think it's still too early to call. And you're well inland, so unless you're in a mobile home or really old house I would probably stay unless evacuation orders were issued.


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MichaelA
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98298 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:04 PM

The GFS 12Z and 18Z results did show a more easrward track. It looked like the 18Z HMON and HWRF also shifted ever so slightly eastward. We'll see if that trend continues in subsequent runs or if they shift back toward the west again. It will be interesting to see what they begin to indicate on Thursday and Friday. As has been stated, prepare now for the worst and hope for the best.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 13/8/4


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IsoFlame
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98304 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:38 PM

Stay calm and re-visit each step in your family hurricane plan.

In nearly 59 years of living in Florida, 40 of which were in multiple locations along the east coast of Florida, I've experienced the fringe on one Cat 4 (75 miles out on the "good" side of Floyd), within 40 miles of four Cat 3's (Donna as a toddler, Frances, Charley, Matthew) and the eye of Cat 2 David. I've been in 6-8 tropical storms (several on a sailboat). Each time I had a safe room or "hurricane hole" to ride out the worst conditions forecast. If Irma comes up the Florida peninsula and weakens to a Cat 3, we're staying in the original concrete block section of our house (built in 1950). If Irma holds as a Cat 5 (or a strong Cat 4) and the forecast has her riding up the east coast of Florida (a possibility), the wife and I will pack up the labs and cat and drive before conditions become perilous) west 75 miles inland to leave and shelter at the farm I grew up on.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98305 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:42 PM

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida), NHC Graphics haven't updated yet, but Central Florida is now in the cone as well.


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chance
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98306 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:47 PM

They just said heck with all the other models we will go with 1 in the euro model. Why??? Why only go with that one. I understand the GFS is a outliner this run but last was east as well. The others are east of this as well. Why?? i do not see the reason they can give by just saying they will go with the euro only that is it.


Waiting on the 00 euro and if that shows east i do not see how they can go with it.

Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 10:49 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98308 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:53 PM

GFS initialized poorly and too far north for one, it is an outlier with a lot of submodels based on it. They made the right call on that one, especially with the mean GFS ensembles being up the spine, the operational WAS an outlier. I hope the trend east happens also, but that wasn't it. (Edit: Trend east and out to Sea, I don't want the Carolinas seeing Irma either)


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Tazmanian93
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98310 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:55 PM

Mike, wasn't the Euro 5-7 more accurate than GFS for Harvey?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98312 - Tue Sep 05 2017 10:57 PM

Quote:

I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA?




When to leave? By Thursday PM you'll be in the 3 day cone which (going by current history) is pretty darn accurate. That would be my go / no-go time frame. TS force winds would enter your area around Sat PM. What is downside to leaving early rather then later? Not much, you burn some gas, help the local economy with some nights in a hotel and get familiar with the menu at Cracker Barrel. Drive a few hundred miles a day, find a hotel, stop, fire up the WiFI and collect more information then plan your next move. If things look better stay put, if things get worse - keep driving. My worry would be gas. Down south here the lines are already getting pretty crazy.

Quote:

11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida)




So the NHC is going with more western solution (for now)... interesting. This was my call this AM and I haven't seen enough information to change it.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98315 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:00 AM

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. Just under 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Cat 5 landfall, Charleston, SC Midday Monday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.

For an even bigger shift, CMC is shifting from a Panhandle landfall to an close call with the east coast and out to sea. (overkill to the east from overkill to the west)

0z ukmet has landfall at west palm beach and rides the east coast of Florida inland up to Jacksonville. Shift west, and less interaction with Cuba.


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bahamaweather
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98316 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:05 AM

Another 'eastern' run for the GFS.... I'll wait until morning to see the Euro and the possibility of a trend. GFS keeps things dicey in the Bahamas for sure...

--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98318 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:10 AM

Quote:

0z GFS, corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.

Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.





Hasn't GFS been east for most of the life of Irma. Euro has had this westerly track pegged for several days...that's gotta be why NHC is sticking close to that ensemble....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Londovir
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98319 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:19 AM

Curious about how/where you can see the init. Would the 0Z GFS run init be correlated to 7pm EDT position of the storm, or am I off on how that works? If so, I'm comparing the rough center of the GFS position at +0 with the radar images from Barbados at 7:01pm looks to be in roughly the same spot, plus or minus a tiny bit.

If the GFS persists in making it an east coast event, and the Euro continues with the west coast event, it's going to be a nightmare for NHC in deciding how to advise on the potential track.

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Londovir


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #98320 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:25 AM

Only by comparing short term models vs actual data. I suspect Euro may shift slightly east, and GFS will shift slightly more west again.

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Steve C
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #98321 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:57 AM

Quote:

and shelter at the farm I grew up on.




Yup. Similar in Houston. Short of a direct hit Cat 4-5, we are in no flood trouble and stick it out.. But with a close and big storm forecast, we bail early. We grab the computers, backup drives, and keepsakes. We shoot a quick video of the house contents. And we head to our daughter's in Austin. On the way, we call the insurance agent and remind him where the house is... heh. We stayed for Harvey; no wind and no surge. We left for Ike and Rita (though Rita eventually missed us, and we basically u-turned in austin after a quick nap.)

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98322 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:03 AM

HMON & HWRF have shifted east. Disney World saved. Mar-a-lago doomed.

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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98323 - Wed Sep 06 2017 02:30 AM

00Z ECMWF has shifted significantly east.

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Marknole
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98325 - Wed Sep 06 2017 05:24 AM

5:00 AM discussion: "The bulk of the guidance now calls for Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The officialforecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance."

Not surprising given such a dramatic shift, however the guidance is very compelling. Would love to see this trend continue and let Irma ride up the Gulf Stream!


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Jumaduke
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Marknole]
      #98326 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:15 AM

We are in the Gainesville area and are watching the model plots quite closely. Husband and I are in a debate as to which storm scenario is worse for the state. He argues that the NOAA model, making a direct hit on Lake Okechobee as she barrels up the center of the peninsula, would be worse because she'll directly affect more people and property. However, I contend that landfall would significantly weaken the eye faster; rather, the path projected by virtually every other model (showing it scraping up the coast and keeping the eye over open water) would be more damaging because nothing would dampen her power. I guess it all depends on when Irma decides to take the snowbird route and head North. Then again, I keep musing on the path of Floyd in 1999, which again scraped the coast of Florida but didn't have an entirely devastating impact because the eye was so far East of the coast. Irma looks to be on a trajectory which puts her eye closer to the beaches. In any case, I'm guessing that we won't be gassing up the truck and traveling TO St. Augustine to witness the storm (as we crazily did in '99).

--------------------
Go Gators!

Edited by Jumaduke (Wed Sep 06 2017 06:16 AM)


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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98328 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:19 AM

The 06Z GFS run just posted. Unchanged from previous run.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #98329 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 AM

0z Euro shifted east, this time. The storm is aover the Turks and Caicos late tomorrow night in the cat 3/4 range, crosses the very southern tip of Andros island in the Bahamas Sautrday midday. Then western eyewall gets very close to West Palm Beach late Sunday night, <20 miles. Then landfall between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. Early Ttuesday morning,

6z GFS is very similar, but with landfall slightly south of the Euro and closest point to West Palm is 30-40 miles. The run is mostly identical to the 0z run until it gets east of Jacksonville, where it turns back west faster.

0z HWRF has also moved east of Florida 6Z HWRF Still running, a bit west of the 0z run,

0z HMon has landfall near Key Largo early Sunday as a cat 5, then up the state, and out by Daytona Beach Early Monday. 6Z HMON Takes it to north of Savannah, closest approach to WPB is about 60 miles.

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda, GFS Ensembles are still nearly a 50/50 split on a Florida landfall (mean winds up slightly east this time though) and the Euro ensembles still take it up the spine of Florida.

Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet. It's not good news for the Carolinas if this occurs, though. A few miles in either direction will make a lot of difference, look for bias corrects (GFS has been too far north consistently in the short range) Bottom line, wait to see if this holds or not, and take the word of the National Hurricane Center over any other source.


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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98333 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:52 AM

Quote:

this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda. Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet.




This is best news we've had in awhile. Hopefully the trend continues because the current track is too horrendous to even consider, it's the stuff nightmares are made of!

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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WestFLJess
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98334 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:53 AM

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.

--------------------
Jess
Tampa Bay, FL

Elena '85....Charley, Frances, Jeanne....Emily '17


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98335 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:02 AM

Thursday is the day I think we will know.Very accurate 3 days out.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: WestFLJess]
      #98337 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:24 AM

Quote:

Mike C (or others) Will NHC make their track shift a little East sometime soon? Or do you think they will stay where they are at going up the center of the state to keep people ready?

We are in Tampa Bay. I have many employees freaking out but we are in healthcare so we do not close unless there are evacuation orders.




Probably but they will do so incrementally, they don't like to shift the track left and right back and forth, if the models stay consistant it'll move further right, if they shift back west it'll hold as is. For what it's worth (not too much for Tropics) the Navgem (Navy model) shifted back west this morning over Florida. Really that entire cone should be looked at, not just the center line. Tomorrow they will have a better idea, even better still on Friday, but until the turn happens itself it'll likely be very close.


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vineyardsaker
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98338 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:44 AM

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98339 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:50 AM

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




I think MikeC explained it best in his last post.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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leetdan
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98340 - Wed Sep 06 2017 08:53 AM

Quote:

Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you?
Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not.
Thank you!




Ignore the line. Focus on the cone. Make your plans based on evacuation zones, how secure you can make your home, and how prepared you are to stay there for potentially days without utilities.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]

Edited by leetdan (Wed Sep 06 2017 08:54 AM)


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vineyardsaker
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: leetdan]
      #98342 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:20 AM

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not




--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98343 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:28 AM

Quote:

Thanks,

Any opinions on my questions:

Quote:

What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge?
Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not







Depending on exact location, probably the surge (depends on approach and exactly where you live and exactly what direction and strength irma is approaching from and if the wind/eye is close enough to drive the field up... Matthew got close but not enough to bring the surge in noticeably to New Smyrna like it did to Flagler Beach north) Of the 3 big hurricanes to be close to central Florida in 2004 Jeanne was the one that did the most surge damage to New Smyrna, but that was with a landfall way south.

When Florida gets under a watch/warning they'll put up surge maps which will help.


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vineyardsaker
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98344 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:41 AM

thank you very much Mike!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma


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raine1212
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #98346 - Wed Sep 06 2017 09:53 AM

I am trying to so hard to figure out the threat for us here in the 30809 zip code, I know the models change but we keep staying in it. I flood with a bad thunder storm, not really sure how to prepare for this. If someone could please help guide me, I would appreciate it at my old age. Thanks

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JMII
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: raine1212]
      #98348 - Wed Sep 06 2017 10:54 AM

Based on San Juan radar Irma looked to be slightly south of 8AM forecast position, so there was a tiny correction at 11AM.
The British Virgin Islands look to take a direct hit.

Edit: also track shifted east again to mirror the models.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Wed Sep 06 2017 11:00 AM)


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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #98349 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:05 AM

Yes, I'm watching the TWC. They said it took a little wobble to the south, which is not good for PR or the VI or the BVI.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #98350 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:19 AM

Good chance 90% this won't make it west of 82dgW and 60% chance this won't even make landfall in Florida.. This all depends on the speed of movement to the WNW over the next 3 days...Saturday before the turn, it slows down to 5-8mph around 78-79W.. but will it be south of 24N? that's the question right now. The ridge currently will have to build westward by about 80-100miles IMO for this to make landfall in the keys... otherwise right now.. it's looking like Nassua-Grand Bahama(Freeport) and north towards S Carolina by early next week. GFS and Euro coming out in the next 1-3 hours

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98352 - Wed Sep 06 2017 11:48 AM

12Z GFS running, Init seems good, reflects BVI issues.

Over Turks and Caicos late Thursday night, cat 4. avoids direct impact with the central Bahamas this time, stays to the south of the rest of the Bahamas (They still get north eyewall though) 40nm southwest of the earlier run at 60 hours. Faster forward motion, also. Jumps noticeably west of earlier run at 66 hours. 50nm ssw of earlier run at 78 hours.

Landfall or very near miss Ft. Lauderdale, Cat 5 midday Sunday, before that Metro Miami in eyewall. Moves north near/over West Palm and back into the Atlantic by late Sunday, then rides just offshore up the coast toward Savannah, GA. landfall, Savannah Monday afternoon, cat 4.



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Steve C
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98354 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:08 PM

Not sure where to put this, but Eric Berger at Ars Technica just published a nice article about the various hurricane models often seen in spaghetti plots. He gives a good one sentence summary of each of the models.
Please, please stop sharing spaghetti plots of hurricane models. All forecast models are not created equal.

--------------------
Claudette (’79) Danielle (’80) Jeanne (’80) Alicia (’83) Bonnie (’86) Allison (’89)
Chantal (’89) Jerry (’89) Dean (’95) Allison (’01) Rita (’05) Ike (’08) Harvey (’17)


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StormHound
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Re: HUR IRMA Lounge [Re: Steve C]
      #98356 - Wed Sep 06 2017 12:23 PM