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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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HURRICANE Jose Lounge
      #98039 - Thu Aug 31 2017 02:00 PM



A potent-looking tropical wave has just exited western Africa and is already showing some signs of wanting to slowly develop, although conditions are not favorable in the near-term. However, late this weekend into next week conditions could become favorable, with NHC odds of 20% over the next 5 days:

Quote:

1. A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is moving westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development over the weekend while the system moves well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.




This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.

This wave is not yet Invest tagged. The title will be updated as warranted. 9/4 - This E Atlantic Wave has been tagged 94L and the title has been updated

Edit: 94L is now Tropical Storm Jose and the title has been updated

As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6, Jose has been upgraded to Hurricane
Location: 13.9°N 45.8°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #98085 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:51 PM

60% at 5 days. Though the models are making it out to be a fish spinner.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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MissBecky
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Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98435 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:16 AM

REALLY not liking the 00Z Euro today, which shows Jose looping around and bringing it back through the Bahamas and toward Florida.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: E Atlantic Tropical Wave [Re: MissBecky]
      #98444 - Thu Sep 07 2017 06:50 AM

Quote:


REALLY not liking the 00Z Euro today, which shows Jose looping around and bringing it back through the Bahamas and toward Florida.





Latest run of ECMWF shows a plausible scenario. In summary, it has Jose drawn up behind much larger Irma heading NW out from the southern Bahamas by late Monday Sep 11, then quickly looped back around by the squeeze play between Irma to Jose's NW - a diving offshore, large, non-tropical low out of Newfoundland - to be then slingshotted back W by the rebuilding Bermuda High, heading right for S Florida as a major at the end of this run (0Z Sep 17).

Believable - and especially noteworthy coming from a model like the Euro. Worth keeping watch for consistency in future runs and if other models start to buy in.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98590 - Fri Sep 08 2017 01:11 PM

Recon flew into Jose for the first time today and found the center to be a little south of prior estimates. Additionally, winds were also stronger than satellite derived estimates, and Jose is now a 150 MPH high-end Cat 4. There were some SFMR returns suggestive of Cat 5, but they may have been contaminated. Either way, Jose is now a very powerful and compact high-end Major, with a track that puts some of the very same islands just hit by Irma at risk again. Recon vort:
Quote:


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 14:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 12 in 2017
Storm Name: Jose (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:58:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°12'N 56°54'W (16.2N 56.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 280 statute miles (450 km) to the NE (40°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,576m (8,451ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 125kts (~ 143.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 142kts (From the NE at ~ 163.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 940mb (27.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the E (83°) from the flight level center at 12:08:00Z




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flnative
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98615 - Fri Sep 08 2017 05:40 PM

Such as St. Maarten & Barbuda I think right? Those poor people. I would imagine they are without power...how are they to know what may be coming?? Where are they going to shelter?

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98674 - Sat Sep 09 2017 05:49 AM

Something to keep an eye on for late next week - ECMWF UKMET and NAVY all now loop Jose back around towards the southeast or east coast by next weekend.

Ongoing recon missions should help sort this out soon.




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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98706 - Sat Sep 09 2017 01:19 PM

12z GFS joins UKMET, ECMWF and NAVGEM in looping Jose back towards the states, with this run of the GFS 10 days (240 hours) out
tossing a Cat 3/4 Jose across the warm New York-New Jersey Bight en route to landfall around western Long Island.



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98714 - Sat Sep 09 2017 03:18 PM

12z Sep 9 ECMWF even more bought-in on the loop back towards the states, taking Jose at Cat 2/3 up the Gulf Stream, clipping the OBX on Day 9 en route to this position on Day 10 (240 Hours out from Initialization).




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Major Sharpe
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98887 - Mon Sep 11 2017 09:45 AM

Although Irma remains a viable Tropical Storm, now impacting the FL Panhandle, I have turned my attention on Jose. The forecast tracks on Jose are bizarre, literally all over the map. As it presents the prospect of a U.S. or even Canadian landfall, I am most interesting in analysis regarding Jose.

On a separate note, my family and friends in FL have been fortunate, thus far. It appears that, with the exception of debris and lost electricity, everyone is safe and well. One exception is my brother -- whom I believe to be alright, but who is a firefighter-paramedic on Marco Island. I remain concerned for his welfare during the aftermath of Irma. I hope everyone else on this Forum and impacted by Irma is doing alright.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98891 - Mon Sep 11 2017 08:41 PM

The latest GFS, CMC, and Euro all take Jose out to sea, which is a slight shift west), I'd feel good about that except the UKmet, which saw the trends early with Irma (and matthew for that matter) takes it into Florida. I'd feel better if that was aligned also, but Jose is worth watching for the east coast as well.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98892 - Mon Sep 11 2017 11:34 PM

Mesoscale guidance does not indicate a a high probability of interaction with the southeast coast of the U.S.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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JMII
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98896 - Tue Sep 12 2017 11:55 AM

Quote:

The latest GFS, CMC, and Euro all take Jose out to sea, which is a slight shift west), I'd feel good about that except the UKmet, which saw the trends early with Irma (and matthew for that matter) takes it into Florida. I'd feel better if that was aligned also, but Jose is worth watching for the east coast as well.




Since I just took my panels down I assume its coming here

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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Major Sharpe
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98906 - Thu Sep 14 2017 05:03 AM

This storm simply does not go away. Present models have it returning to hurricane status far more north than anticipated for this time of year. Issue of concern: waters are warmer than they have been in previous decades.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: Major Sharpe]
      #98907 - Thu Sep 14 2017 07:37 AM

UKMET eventually went well east with the other models, GFS and euro show no landfall currently, closest approaches are to Hatteras (But well east, Cape Cod, but well East, and Nova Scotia, again well east) Enough for rough surf along the coast, but that's about it. It should be still watched to see if it veers any west. Interestingly the ultra long range has Jose moving back from 43N (Novia Scotia latitude, all the way south in the Atlantic to 31N Latitude (Georgia) maintaining itself the entire time.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98911 - Thu Sep 14 2017 12:40 PM

12Z GFS and Ukment have a slight shift west, getting very close to the outer banks and later long island/ri/cape cod, but no direct landfall.

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BloodstarModerator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98913 - Fri Sep 15 2017 01:30 AM

Well, the 00Z GFS has shifted west and bring it over long island and Rhode Island around 120 - 132 hours out. Then loop it around to bring it in as a weak Tropical storm or depression around hour 200. long ways out, but that was a bit of an eyebrow raiser. Be interesting to see what the other models do overnight as well as the 12Z models.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98918 - Fri Sep 15 2017 05:27 AM

0z euro loops it offshore of long island then landfalls into New Jersey late Saturday Sept 23rd, as a Tropical Storm, close enough to cause a lot of flooding/surge issues.

CMC moves it over Cape Cod as a cat 1 hurricane, late Tuesday.

NavGem cat 1/2 over east central New Jersey Wednesday morning.

UKMet keeps it offshore.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98919 - Fri Sep 15 2017 08:18 AM

6Z GFS Clips Cape Cod/Nantucket, then clips Nova Scotia and St.Pierra Newfoundland, but no direct landfalls this time.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98922 - Fri Sep 15 2017 09:47 AM

Quote:

6Z GFS Clips Cape Cod, then clips Nova Scotia and St.Pierra Newfoundland, but no direct landfalls this time.




The size of the storm at that time will matter a lot as far as impacts.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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