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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #98894 - Tue Sep 12 2017 08:34 AM

Quote:

Irma's Cone of Uncertainty - Why it is so important to use the Cone and not the line.




Overall the NHC did a very good job...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forecasts-have-done-a-good-job-predicting-irmas-shifting-path/

There were only 2 small errors but these lead to major differences in who was effected -

1) Irma's constant W to WNW motion and at one point a SW motion on the Cuban coast (9/9 @ 8AM). This altered landfall from the up the spine of FL to a west coast landfall.

2) Irma's NE motion after landfall in Naples (9/10 @ 6PM) followed by a due N run for 6 hours (thru 12AM). This spared Tampa but moved damage more into Central FL (like Orlando) as the eye moved over Arcadia vs Sarasota.

Another surprise was the 1/2 eye situation that occurred in Naples. There was nothing behind (south) of the storm, I was watching Jeff's live periscope feed and the eye came over, everyone came out, then... nothing. Its didn't even rain, the winds didn't seem to come back up at all. I think this helped to limit damage in Naples somewhat. See: http://flhurricane.com/images/mirrors/2017/LRRadar/LRRadar_091020171808.png

Still working on getting my time lapse video up, taking panels down today after general clean up yesterday.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: JMII]
      #98895 - Tue Sep 12 2017 10:11 AM

I generally agree that a post-mortem on Irma is important. NHC did an excellent job all along. There were two things on Sunday that seemed to not be factored in: the effect of the dry air that dove into the storm as it moved north off Cuba and apparently a low feature was contributing to the weather that developed up the east coast from Jacksonville to Charleston. Common opinion seems to support that the weather in those two areas were part of the tropical low, but were they?

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE [Re: doug]
      #98899 - Wed Sep 13 2017 07:26 AM

The UKMet has joined the other models in keeping it away from the US. it still needs to be monitored, but much less likely to affect the US than before, Bermuda has a small risl also.

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