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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Nate) , Major: 87 (Maria) Florida - Any: 97 (Irma) Major: 97 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98923 - Fri Sep 15 2017 12:06 PM

12z GFS, Jose's western eyewall clips Nantucket island as cat 2/3 Wednesday morning. Then stays offshore Ukmet shifted a bit east and is offshore.


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Prospero
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 147
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98941 - Sat Sep 16 2017 09:43 PM

Leaving Florida on Friday for Vermont for a few days. After a week of hot muggy suffering here, I am looking forward to some nice cool days, colorful trees with leaves turning, and a small intimidate beer fest at Mad River Glen ski area. I am NOT looking forward to power outages or floods in the VT mountains. I assume there is little to no risk of that, but I'll be checking Florida Hurricane dot com for latest info!



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: HUR Jose Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98959 - Mon Sep 18 2017 12:20 PM

this thing has been named only since the 5th, but doesn't it seem like its been a whole lot longer than that?...the record is 28 days...so half way there, but the 11:00 seems to point to "the end" in a few days... good riddance!

--------------------
doug


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98971 - Mon Sep 18 2017 09:05 PM

Jose's location and strength.. which could be determined by whether he is still tropical, sub-tropical, post-tropical, or a messy mish-mash of the three .. will likely have significant influence on the future track of Maria. Heading into sunset tonight, deep convection can be seen blowing up near or just about over Jose's exposed LLC Jose potentially has another day or two left over warmish, mostly Gulf Stream waters, before his forecast track kicks him over cooler SSTs, which would likely speed up his post-tropical transition. A very weak or basically non-existent Jose in a few days could result in the closing up of the weakness through which Maria would otherwise probably find her way eventually out to sea with.

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: HURRICANE Jose Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99020 - Fri Sep 22 2017 09:37 PM

'After 70 advisories, enough is enough.'
Quote:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

After 70 advisories, enough is enough. The tropical-storm-force
winds from Jose have finally subsided and moved out of the
southern New England. Thus, the wind hazard to land has decreased,
and this will be the last advisory on Jose since it is already
post-tropical. A slow decay over cold water is forecast while the
low drifts southeastward to southward. The cyclone should
degenerate into a trough within 3 days as forecast by the global
models.

The swell and rip current threat will remain across large portions
of the U.S. east coast for quite some time, due to the wave field
from both Jose and Maria.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 39.3N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/0600Z 39.1N 69.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/1800Z 38.7N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 38.4N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 38.2N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake




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