Nate now a Hurricane, Moving Quickly into the Gulf

111:45PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Based on recon and satellite, Nate is now a hurricane, and has a good shot for strengthening tomorrow, and possibly by quite a bit.

Those in the hurricane warning area should check local Media and officials for more information, as you will only havbe a portion of the day tomorrow to finish up preparations.

5PM EDT Update 6 October 2017 Update
Tropical storm Nate continues its movement to the north northwest, moving pretty rapidly now with landfall forecast to happen overnight Saturday into Sunday just east of New Orleans, it's a bit stronger this afternoon, approaching hurricane strength, and it has a window tomorrow afternoon to rapidly intensify before landfall, so those along the coast in the Hurricane Warning area should make preparations tomorrow if they aren't done already today, as it will rapidly approach tomorrow night.

Storm surge is forecast to be 5-8 ft in some areas, please consult local officials and media for more information for your exact area. See the Storm Surge Inundation Map also.

Satellite presentation is much better tonight than yesterday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth

7:15PM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Nate is becoming more of a threat to the north Central Gulf and New Orleans and points to the east in MS/AL. Portions of the Gulf coast may have hurricane watches issued tomorrow, for an eventual Sunday landfall in the north Gulf coast. Although the official forecast is for an 80mph hurricane, there exists a decent possibility (with extremely warm water the storm is passing over) that the storm could rapidly intensify over the Gulf, so do not take this likely in the hurricane watch/warning area and listen to local government officials and media.

8AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

5AM EDT Update 5 October 2017 Update

Hurricane watches are now up in Mexico from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico in the Yucatan, as the possibility exists that the system could reach hurricane strength before nearing the Yucatan.

The official forecast track has shifted west to now Include the tip of the Yucatan and later eastern Louisiana to Panama City, centered near the Alabama/Mississippi border. In short the storm or hurricane is likely to impact the North Central Gulf Coast.

11AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
90L is now being Tracked as Tropical Depression 16, a Hurricane is forecast for Sunday in the region of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, centered near Panama City. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nate later today or tomorrow.

The cone ranges from Mississippi to Florida just north of Tampa, currently centered just east of Panama City, FL. The forecast is fairly low confidence so the entire Gulf should be watching as well.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the border with Nicaragua.

6AM EDT Update 4 October 2017 Update
This week we have an area in the Western Caribbean, east of Nicaragua that is starting to organize, currenlty with an 80% chance for development over the next 5 days. This area is being tracked as 90L right now, and could become a depression or storm later today or tomorrow. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.

Beyond that it is likely to impact somewhere along the Gulf, either north Central or Northeastern Gulf, from Louisiana to Florida Potentially as a strong Tropical storm or Hurricane . If it does develop it is likely to become sheared right before a landfall, potentially on or close to Sunday. Those along the Gulf coast would be wise to monitor it, see the forecast lounge for model discussion and speculation.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into the are this afternoon, so chances are National Hurricane Center issued advisories could start to be issued this evening.

There is also another area north of Cuba which is bringing the windy conditions to Florida, but that is much less likely to develop, with a 10% chance for tropical development. Still enough to bring some rain to South Florida and parts of Central Florida. Although much less likely to develop, it is worth watching.

Original Update

Conditions for development from the Caribbean into the Gulf have been on the rise, and over the past few days a substantial Central American Gyre (CAG) has been forming, dramatically enhancing the background vorticity in the region, while also spinning out vortices - a few in the eastern Pacific - and a few much closer to home. The most noteworthy of these being newly-tagged Invest 90L. And it's definitely one to watch.

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is scheduled to fly into 90L Wednesday afternoon, and there are fairly good odds that they could find 90L a tropical cyclone by then.

A second feature, a trough of low pressure located near central Cuba and extending into the Straits of Florida, though not yet Invest tagged, is conservatively given 10% Tropical Cyclogenesis odds by . Conservatively, as conditions overall through the western Atlantic are becoming considerably more favorable for development. This system has already been producing gusts to tropical storm force in squalls. This trof may actually consolidate a little bit east of its current "X" location, and have more time to cook. Keeping watch for a potential upside surprise.

90L Model Discussions and more - 90L Forecast Lounge

Nate Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nate