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General Discussion >> 2018 Storm Forum

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MikeCAdministrator
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Outlook for 2018 and Numbers
      #99164 - Tue May 01 2018 08:01 PM

This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.

My guess for 2018 is 14/7/3



Last year (2017) the final number was 17/10/6 which was way above. Closest was JoshuaK with 17/9/4, followed by ftlaudbob with 18/9/5, and Bloodstar with 18/9/4


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doug
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99167 - Thu May 03 2018 01:02 PM

13/7/3 ( subject to change before board closes. )

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: doug]
      #99168 - Thu May 03 2018 06:52 PM

15/8/5. Good luck to all!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #99169 - Fri May 04 2018 07:23 PM

14/8/3 Best of Luck

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M.A.
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #99171 - Wed May 09 2018 06:02 PM

17/9/5

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gsand
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: M.A.]
      #99177 - Fri May 11 2018 09:11 PM

Greetings All,

16/7/3. Stay safe everyone.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2018 Forecast- 16/7/3


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EMS
Weather Watcher


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: gsand]
      #99178 - Sat May 12 2018 12:33 AM

17/8/5

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Doombot!
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99193 - Sun May 13 2018 11:52 PM

15/7/4

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Bev
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Doombot!]
      #99198 - Mon May 14 2018 09:22 AM

16/8/4

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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Liz
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99199 - Mon May 14 2018 10:19 AM

15/8/4

Edited by Liz (Mon May 14 2018 02:14 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99200 - Mon May 14 2018 01:19 PM

13/6/2

Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 14 2018 01:20 PM)


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jtrnr1951
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99206 - Wed May 16 2018 01:55 PM

15, 10, 5

and I hope I'm wrong...


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vpbob21
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99239 - Fri May 25 2018 12:58 AM

16/9/5

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: vpbob21]
      #99241 - Fri May 25 2018 07:41 AM

17-7-4 Here we go again. I wonder who`s in the cross hairs this year ?

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IsoFlame
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99287 - Mon May 28 2018 01:21 PM

Couldn't edit my previous prediction issued in early May, so here is the minor tweak (upward) ahead of the June 1st deadline:

14 storms
6 hurricanes
3 majors

I'll add the following gut conjecture... the 2018 season will be busy early with several tropical storms and a weak hurricane (Alberto in late May followed by Beryl in late June then Chris in sometime in July. I believe August and early September will be unusually quiet. Activity cranks up the second half of September, early and late October, and first week of November with 5 hurricanes, 3 achieving major status. My gut suggests males dominate the Atlantic Basin in 2018, with Isaac and Kirk names to remember.

Given the set-up in May of persistent troughiness over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico combined with a weak Bermuda high funneling copious tropical moisture northward out of the western Caribbean Sea, the entire length of Florida from the Keys and southern tip to Pensacola in the Panhandle could be in play.

Edited by IsoFlame (Wed May 30 2018 08:58 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99289 - Thu May 31 2018 04:11 AM

Raw numbers from a methodology I've employed for the past ten years - these are *raw* numbers, and I tend to use them as a baseline from which I look over all sorts of other info - unashamed to say I will also be reading in earnest Colorado State University's updated seasonal forecast, which comes out later this morning - before finalizing my bid.

Right now, my inclination is to actually go lower than my raw findings (image below)



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doug
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99290 - Thu May 31 2018 03:17 PM

CSU =14/6/3. Noted cooling in the basin ascreason for the reduction. TSR= 14/4/1. I will stay with my earlier prediction.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu May 31 2018 03:23 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99291 - Thu May 31 2018 09:31 PM

Several variables leave me viewing 2018 in the Atlantic as rather evenly weighted to around normal, or close to either side thereof, for total numbers of names, hurricanes and majors, but importantly, with an above-average to high landfall risk from the Gulf coast states to the mid-Atlantic.

Given that we have already seen one (preseason) named storm, and indications are that we may very well see at least one in June (early season), I'll go with my system's output of 12 Names, 6 HURs and 2 Majors - offering a most likely range of 9-13 Names, 4-7 Hurricanes and 1-3 Majors. Above average to high risk of U.S. landfalls (which could make season totals moot if any significant cyclones make landfalls, regardless of season formation totals - "It only takes one.")

Final bid for 2018: 12 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Majors


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99293 - Thu May 31 2018 10:06 PM

17 Tropical Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Still in an active phase

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99295 - Fri Jun 01 2018 01:26 PM

Ok we're locked down for this year. Alberto is a freebie.

(We can track edits, so careful )


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IsoFlame
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99315 - Mon Jun 18 2018 04:41 PM

Good call for 2018. Tropical Atlantic SST's are running a good 3F below last year and are the coolest mid-June seas surface temperatures since the early 1980's: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...m=.df187c9f3b79

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Keith B
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99316 - Tue Jun 19 2018 04:38 PM

Good article.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Keith B]
      #99318 - Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Jun 22 2018 01:54 PM)


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demiphillips090
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99351 - Sat Jul 28 2018 01:59 AM

hello

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 28 2018 04:07 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99835 - Fri Oct 19 2018 01:30 PM

It is looking like the fat lady may be testing her vocal chords to sing her swan song with dew point suppression from progressively stronger frontal activity scouring out the near-home basins. If so, Mike C's near perfect 14/7/3 (one off on majors) is top call. Looks like Doug (13/7/3) and I (14/6/3) tied for second.

2018 seasonal statistics (as of 10/19): Total storms: 14; Hurricanes: 7 ; Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 2

Total fatalities
137 (and counting)

Total damage
> $21.57 billion (2018 USD)

source: Wikipedia

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 19 2018 01:44 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99844 - Sun Oct 28 2018 05:25 PM

Some thoughts regarding the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

To open, it's blasted through my own and all official forecasts, so at least those of us who underbid are in good (bad) company ;-)

And despite frontal activity scouring close to home, it may actually continue to be busier than average for longer still - possibly even into the final month of the season, or even the year (with the "official" hurricane "season" ending on November 30, but with any "season" total always actually including from first named storm to last in any given year regardless of date).

2018 has been a very good year for subtropical storms (which later transitioned into tropical). The ocean-atmosphere state that has made this so very possible is still in place. The most recent example of this is now Tropical Storm Oscar, that might also very well become a Major hurricane - and possibly also a long-lived tropical cyclone, further beefing up this season's ACE.

A very intriguing footnote to the above is also that the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (calling them a region together, even though no RSMC has yet to really step up with taking responsibility for them), has seen a half dozen - you read correctly - six - subtropical/tropical cyclones "Medicanes" this year to date. Arguably strongest of these at landfall, Zorba, caused catastrophic surge, rain and wind damage in parts of the region.

In addition, perhaps adding to the numbers as we now know them, odds favor post-season reanalysis to look at upgrades to one or more of our named systems so far: Tropical Storm Gordon (Possibly attained Cat 1), Hurricane Helene (Possibly attained Cat 3), and Michael (Possibly attained Cat 5) all jump out for review.

And as always there exists the possibility that NHC finds a previously unidentified subtrop or tropical cyclone. (September 98L comes immediately to mind as a candidate for review).

The big picture view from 50,000' is that 2018 has certainly been overachieving.

So what happened? It's a very good question and one which experts are already looking at and are sure to do so for some time to come.

There may be some other large-scale events that get special attention in their endeavor. One, 2018 is the first year of more reliable records that every single basin in the Northern Hemisphere has been above average. Another, while an El NiƱo is still forecast to form this year, it has had a delayed full onset, and obviously would thus impact just too late to prevent the busy year in the Atlantic underway.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99855 - Fri Nov 30 2018 01:32 PM

15/8/2 is the final number at the close of the season. Liz was closest with 15/8/4 Frederick was also very close with 14/8/3


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