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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Chris Lounge
      #99328 - Fri Jul 06 2018 01:18 AM


Above: 96L July 6, 2018 0500z

A well-defined area of low pressure has formed northeast of the Bahamas, the latest in a succession of low pressure centers at various levels of the atmosphere which have been traveling some version of west from just off the east or southeast U.S. over several days. This cyclone is now being tracked as an Invest, 96L.

As of this initial entry, Invest 96L is located between the southeast coast and Bermuda. While mostly wanting for deep convection, conditions could easily become somewhat to very favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical cyclone may form. Movement would most likely be generally west, then generally north to north-northeast, potentially putting coastal locations from the Mid Atlantic to Nova Scotia at some risk over the weekend and into next week of tropical storm, and perhaps even hurricane-force conditions, should development occur. (About 50/50 within 72 hours per NHC at time of this post).

As of 4PM EDT July 6, #96L has become a tropical depression, the third depression of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

4AM EDT July 8 THREE has become a tropical storm - Ciel


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: INVEST 96L LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99332 - Fri Jul 06 2018 08:10 AM

This is now up to an 80% chance for development, the GFS and Euro start development in earnest on Sunday, however the GFS is much stronger, developing the system into a Hurricane by late Tuesday offshore of Wilmington, NC. and slides it northeast, with the northern eyewall clipping Hatteras.midday Wednesday, then out to sea by Thursday, before curving back in for a second landfall in Central Maine on July 13th.

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD 3 LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99335 - Sun Jul 08 2018 03:55 AM

Just a quick update.
TD3 is now Tropical Storm Chris. Some of the better TC models bring him up to Major while still over the Gulf Stream, tho none of the operational runs swing him west into the U.S. any more. However, the longer the stall/meander, the greater the risk of a fly in the ointment.


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TS CHRIS LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99336 - Sun Jul 08 2018 05:04 AM

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018
Quote:


Although the winds associated with the tropical storm have increased
a little, the overall organization of Chris has not changed much
over the past few hours. The low-level center is still exposed to
the north of a broken band of deep convection and the cyclone lacks
an inner-core. Chris is located over very warm SSTs and will
remain so for the next several days. While the broad nature of the
cyclone's circulation and some moderate shear will likely limit the
intensification rate over the next day or so, all of the intensity
guidance indicates that Chris will become a hurricane within about
72-h. By day 4, the intensity forecast is more uncertain,
and depends strongly on the timing of Chris crossing the Gulf
Stream, since the cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as
long as it remains over warm waters. Once extratropical transition
begins, weakening should occur as the wind field broadens. The new
intensity forecast is close to HCCA and IVCN through day 3, and
slightly lower beyond that, closer to the previous forecast.

The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
emerges.




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