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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
94L Lounge
      #99507 - Fri Sep 07 2018 09:54 AM



A weak, but persistent area of low pressure centered near 30N 68W continues beefing up with convection today, with an increase in both surface convergence and vorticity.

This has gone mostly unseen and unforecast by the global models, but at least one run of the 3km FV3 has appeared to develop a weak closed low here, and some CMC runs I know hinted at his a little, too. Sometimes systems like this can be sleepers, missed by models until they are already developed. Being that this feature is both already so close to land (U.S. and Bermuda) and could, could possibly adjust the future steering currents for Florence, it's worth watching and we are now starting a Lounge on this one.

Edit: Last couple of runs of the Parent HWRF pick it up pretty well - Florence eats it as a quick snack.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but may be later today, and the title will be updated as warranted.

Just Invest tagged 94L and the title has been updated accordingly - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 07 2018 11:42 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: NEW: Trof E of N.C. [Re: cieldumort]
      #99508 - Fri Sep 07 2018 11:33 AM

This feature has now been Invest tagged, 94L. We may start getting model runs focused on it by tomorrow.

201809071200 30N 68.8W 20KTS


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99519 - Sat Sep 08 2018 03:38 AM

Pressures seem to have fallen very little over the past 24 hours in the vicinity of 94L, based on nearby, albeit limited, buoy and ship reports, and scatterometer data show that if anything resembling a defined closed low at the surface did ever exist, it almost certainly does not now. In addition, with the loss of daytime heating, convection has decreased significantly. While some of the models acknowledge its existence, even briefly closing it off in the range of 1012 MB, none develop it.

Unsurprisingly, as of the 2AM TWO, NHC has lowered their estimation of 94L's chance for development to just 10% within 5 days. With the odds of this weak surface trof becoming a TD very low and going even lower, the walls are literally closing in ever more for Florence to find a way out to sea (if at all) before striking the United States.


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