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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Kirk Lounge
      #99659 - Thu Sep 20 2018 10:51 PM



A robust, convectively active African Easterly Wave rolling off that continent and into the far eastern Atlantic is already showing some potential. This wave has just been Invest tagged, 99L.

At 9/21/0z the center of 99L was estimated to be near 9.2N 13.3W, with winds of about 25 KTS and minimum pressure of 1007 MB. Waters in the far eastern Atlantic are not very warm, but NHC does place a 40% opening bid for development within 5 days on this wave, and is often the case, an initially weaker/delayed development scenario could have 99L tracking further west with time.

99L has become Tropical Storm Kirk on 9/22/18 and the title has been updated. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 22 2018 01:02 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99665 - Sat Sep 22 2018 12:59 PM

99L has become Tropical Storm Kirk way out in the far eastern Atlantic. No immediate threat to land, but this is a historically south initial position without much increase in latitude expected, and may be impacting the Lesser Antilles mid to late next week. Definitely one to watch.

Quote:

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep
convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes
that showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center.




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danielwAdministrator
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Ex-TS Kirk Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99670 - Mon Sep 24 2018 05:42 PM

97L remnants nearing the Lesser Antilles and 99L, Ex TS Kirk following 97L.
Convection is somewhat consolidated and the system has decent structure at this time.



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