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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Keith B
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Loc: FL, Orange County
Nov. Central Atl. Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #99845 - Sat Nov 10 2018 01:20 PM

NHC is looking at a pending system to develop SE of the Bahamas. Computer models from TT have it going out to sea, please? I think we have had our fill of tropical items for this season. : )

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Nov 10 2018 02:08 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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96L Lounge
      #99846 - Sat Nov 10 2018 02:04 PM

A strong tropical wave, one in a series of unseasonably impressive waves currently tracking through the Tropical Atlantic, has a decent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.

This wave is presently centered about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive for TC genesis by early to mid next week, and more and more modes' runs are warming up to sub-1005mb tropical storm near or over the Greater Antilles to the Bahamas by Wed/Th.

NHC 40% within 5 days, which could be conservative.

This particular wave is not yet Invest tagged, but is likely to be soon, and the title will be updated as warranted.

Title updated with the Invest tag 96L on 11/11 - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Nov 12 2018 10:53 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Nov. Central Atl. Wave 96L [Re: cieldumort]
      #99848 - Mon Nov 12 2018 10:48 AM



Invest 96L 11/12/18/1445z

The vigorous wave being tracked as 96L is looking a little better this morning, but still lacks a LLC as upper-level winds remain challenging. Conditions for development are slowly becoming less inhibitive and may become favorable by tomorrow or Wednesday, and NHC has upped their forecast to 90%


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Nov. Central Atl. Wave 96L [Re: cieldumort]
      #99849 - Tue Nov 13 2018 10:15 AM

The wave this morning does not look as vigorous. The odds are reduced. I think it depends on the upper level turbulence from trough that is expected down the peninsula from the NW this weekend as to if it will become a tropical low.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Nov. Central Atl. Wave [Re: Keith B]
      #99850 - Fri Nov 16 2018 12:18 PM

96L was dropped from NHC a few days ago, but its remnant has been consolidating over the Bahamas


96L Nov 16 2018 1145z Base image courtesy: Weathernerds.org


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Nov. Central Atl. Wave [Re: Keith B]
      #99851 - Sat Nov 17 2018 11:29 AM

96L is no longer being tracked officially (again), but looks better than ever this morning ... running just ahead of ... and still not yet merged with .. the approaching cold front. (Expected to merge, but will have locally stronger impacts at sea regardless of merger).


x96L 11/17/1500z


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Nov. Central Atl. Wave [Re: cieldumort]
      #99852 - Sat Nov 17 2018 03:15 PM

And just for whiplash's sake, 96L has been lit again for tracking, now somewhat, but not fully, embedded within a frontal zone. Winds to about tropical storm force have been underway.
Quote:



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles northeast
of the central Bahamas is producing winds to near gale force and an
area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is embedded within
a large scale frontal zone, and additional development is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.




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