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#Chantal continues eastbound in the Atlantic. Now closely watching a new area of Interest near the Bahamas with 20% odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Barry) , Major: 316 (Michael) Florida - Any: 316 (Michael) Major: 316 (Michael)
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E at 17 mph
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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99941 - Thu Jul 11 2019 10:06 AM

While still likely to become a full-fledged tropical cyclone, all of these fits and starts in coming together are why I was originally at about a 70% chance of TC - and which bent my max intensity estimations down, despite what would otherwise be good to excellent environmental conditions for possibly even rapid intensification.

Now, with the aid of first light, I would back down from the 'near certainty' of development, to closer to 90%. The reason for this has to do with the fact that 92L in some respects has devolved more into a hybrid with multiple centers, with a pronounced spin, its northernmost, already about to push inland over Louisiana. Meanwhile, what was perhaps an attempt overnight to jump a new center into the deepest convection to the southwest, looks to have given way to splitting the difference between that region (26N, 89.5W) and the northern lobe just southeast of Louisiana (29N, 88.5W), with pressures falling steadily somewhere in the middle.

The strongest winds associated with TWO appear to be located well away from its mean (and tracked) center, and an eyeball of scat and recon passes has a sub-tropical cyclone look about them.

Net-net, until (or even unless) TWO fully establishes a more stable and tighter LLC, it will continue this rather sloppy, uneven march to becoming a TC, and the longer it takes, probably, the lower its ultimate maximum intensity will be, given there is only so much time it has before meeting land.

Regardless of development, the system will produce tremendous rainfall over much of the south-central US, and in areas least able to handle it. Whether or not it becomes a TD, storm or hurricane is almost academic to this point.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99944 - Thu Jul 11 2019 10:35 AM

Looks like we will see 92L declared a TC shortly. It's not unreasonable to call it now, given the ongoing pressure drops in the mean center of the multi-swirled incipient TC, and the tropical storm force winds located in SE quad.

ATCF AL, 02, 2019071112, BEST, 277N, 885W, 30, 1005, TD, 34


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99945 - Thu Jul 11 2019 11:06 AM

Benefits of recon - based on visible satellite and the scattering of surface obs one could argue that there wasn't enough there there - but the current mission has found a more coherent center with pressures continuing to drop. Now that we have a young but legit storm, model runs coming in later today should be more precise and reliable.

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