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News Talkback >> 2019 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Eyes on Dorian
      #100068 - Mon Aug 26 2019 06:25 AM

3PM EST 28 August 2019 Update
Dorian is now a Hurricane and on a rather fast track to what could very well be Major status.

Original Entry
Tropical Storm Dorian is a compact Tropical Storm with 60mph winds east of Barbados in the Eastern Caribbean, it's a little under 24 hours away from Barbados this morning. And because of this,tropical Storm Warnings are up in Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines A little outside the time range for warnings, there are Tropical storm watches are up for, Saba, St. Eustatius, Dominica, Martinique, Grenada and its dependencies. Some of these likely will change to warnings.

Beyond this Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola will need to watch, models seem to be struggling with he relatively small size of the system and weaken it over the eastern Caribbean, but it may noi so a hurricane is forecast for the eastern Caribbean. It would be extremely late Wednesday or Thursday morning before Dorian would approach those areas, however.

Beyond the Caribbean, the cone now extends into the central Bahamas, so those there, and Florida, will need to pay attention to Dorian, particularly on how strong it is and what the state of Dorian is after passing Hispaniola. It's very possible or even likely that Dorian dissipates over Hispaniola, but if it does not things could change quickly. So for those of us in Florida, everything will depend on how strong or weak Dorian is after exiting the Caribbean, which means we probably won't know until very late Thursday or Friday morning.

Odds favor the system weakening or even getting torn apart which would likely keep it just increased rain-showers over Florida on Labor Day, but there is enough uncertainty between its small size and dependency on exact track near Hispaniola that we shouldn't ignore it.

So what we'll be lo0king for with a tiny compact system: rapid rises or drops in strength, how it does in the East Caribbean, particularly tomorrow and Wednesday, exactly where it goes on Thursday (over Hispaniola, clipping Hispaniola, or missing it entirely). And the state of it after it exits the Caribbean. Once it does the focus will then be on recon and how intact (or not) the system is which could indicate impacts on the Bahamas and Florida.

Currently the models favor Dorian on the very weak side (effectively just slightly more rain than usual) as it approaches Florida.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Tropical Storm Erin Lounge, Hurricane Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge


Have any questions or suggestions for preparing for Dorian? Please join the conversation: Dorian Prep ASK/TELL

Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erin Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Erin - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erin


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erin -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.



Caribbean Radar Recording

Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Eyes on Dorian [Re: MikeC]
      #100084 - Mon Aug 26 2019 08:20 PM

Recon is sampling now, so far nothing too surprising, about what the NHC has it at 8pm. The southwest side of the storm isn't too healthy.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Eyes on Dorian [Re: MikeC]
      #100088 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:33 PM

Mixed signals on satellite tonight, banding isn't as good as it was earlier, however the west flank seems to be expanding, the core on water vapor is small, though. It's not in great shape overall tonight, but it should hold together/

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Eyes on Dorian [Re: MikeC]
      #100105 - Tue Aug 27 2019 09:19 PM

More of the Dorian links on the homepage aren’t correct. The satellite image as well as all of Clark’s links are for the wrong storm. Thx

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Eyes on Dorian [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100108 - Tue Aug 27 2019 11:49 PM

Those were fixed (although we lost images before tonight) sat links are old and need to be reconfigured.

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