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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 1931
Loc: Austin, Tx
Tropical Storm Fernand Lounge
      #100351 - Sat Aug 31 2019 06:03 PM

A broad, but fairly well defined area of Low pressure has formed in the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico over the past 48 hours, and has been catching our eye for some potential of development. While the disturbance itself is not an ideal one for TCG, shear, moisture, water temps and more are favorable for development. As it is so close to land and likely to have some impacts either way, we are opening up a Lounge on it at this time.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but could be so later this weekend, and NHC gives it 30% odds of TC genesis within 5 days. Locations in the western Gulf of Mexico, from the Yucatan peninsula, west to the coasts of eastern Mexico and Texas, may want to pay it some attention. The title will be updated as warranted. Edit: 9/2: has been Invest tagged 93L and the title has been updated 9/3: 93L is now SEVEN. Now Fernand.

Note: More images forthcoming


The Topical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product for the Gulf of Mexico region, developed by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA, has hit its highest level of the year (dark blue line), suggesting, despite the low advertised probability, a much higher chance than climatology (dark black line) of TC genesis in the Gulf during the next 48 hours. The last and only time this experimental product exceeded 3% in the Gulf this year was around July 10/11, when Barry formed (denoted by the red markers on the graph).



Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 03 2019 04:40 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #100394 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:41 AM


09/01/19 Approx 5:30AM


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #100440 - Sun Sep 01 2019 02:30 PM


Gulf Low (Not yet an official Invest) - Visible image with surface obs 09/01/1806z

Almost all attention is understandably being paid to Hurricane Dorian now, but this sprawling Low in the Gulf may be getting a little lost by many in the shuffle. As of 1806z today 09/01/19, the Low appears to be attempting to recenter closer to the mean of the gyre and within the deeper convection - which would now place it in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, as opposed to just off the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds based on surface, buoy, ship, and scatterometer observations appear to be running close to 25 KNOTS, perhaps higher, and minimum pressure could be down around 1009mb. Conditions for further development are somewhat favorable, and movement is to the west (now possibly from the center of the Gulf of Mexico, which if realized, would place more of Texas in play later this week).

It seems plausible that this feature will be Invest tagged by Monday if current trends continue and we will update title and details as warranted.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #100461 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:09 PM


The image above is about the last fully full daylight visible image to catch all three of these features in the W Atlantic
From left to right: Gulf Low, Cat 5 Dorian, Low SSE of Bermuda

As all three are currently stronger than previously forecast, officially and by the models, there may be more influence to track and/or intensity from each one than had been anticipated. Will be interesting to see how the 0z model runs (and especially the 12Z runs tomorrow) respond to this new information, if assimilated accurately enough. This image has been cross-posted to the Low SSE of Bermuda Lounge and Hurricane Dorian Lounge, as well.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 93L (Gulf Low) [Re: cieldumort]
      #100590 - Tue Sep 03 2019 02:26 AM

NHC odds now up to 80% within 48 hours. Recon has been tentatively tasked to investigate this system tomorrow.
Quote:

SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z
B. NOAA2 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1830Z
D. 22.5N 95.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000



Development has been a bit of a challenge, as not only has 93L had to deal with a surface circulation that has been situated well south of the lowish-to-mid level circulation, but also Dorian kept siphoning away a lot of its ability to close off at the surface closer to the aforementioned mid-level circulation (and by far where all the convective action is).

93L appears to be tapping into improved conditions tonight, and we could see TC genesis as soon as some time today. Winds are currently starting to nudge up to near tropical-storm force already, and if indeed it closes off, a named storm could be knocking on the coast of eastern Mexico not all that far from Brownsville, Tx, if current trends and model guidance verifies.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: SEVEN Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100597 - Tue Sep 03 2019 09:30 AM



SEVEN is likely to pick up a name later today or tomorrow. The next name on the list is Fernand. Movement generally to the west, although a WNW retrending is not out of the question.

NHC:
Quote:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the day Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon.

South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.




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