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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 92L (SE of Bermuda)
      #100453 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:25 PM



An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda is showing some additional signs of organization today. NHC does give it 30% odds of development within 5 days, and this could be conservative.

Although modeling suggests that this feature, if it develops, will become a fish spinner, as it is already showing more promise than most models have advertised and could pull it together sooner, rather than later or not at all, and thus at a lower latitude, steering currents may not be so quick to rush it right out to sea before putting at least Bermuda itself at some risk of impacts, so we are starting a Forecast Lounge on this feature at this time.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but if trends continue, soon could be, and the title will be updated as warranted. More images and details to come. Edit: 9/2 This has now been tagged 92L and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 02 2019 08:35 AM)


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Psyber
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Low SSE of Bermuda [Re: cieldumort]
      #100455 - Sun Sep 01 2019 04:30 PM

LOL I was watching things kicking off Africa the other day and it was just storm after storm after storm. It's not surprising there's some development.

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Low SSE of Bermuda [Re: cieldumort]
      #100459 - Sun Sep 01 2019 05:06 PM


The image above is about the last fully full daylight visible image to catch all three of these features in the W Atlantic
From left to right: Gulf Low, Cat 5 Dorian, Low SSE of Bermuda

As all three are currently stronger than previously forecast, officially and by the models, there may be more influence to track and/or intensity from each one than had been anticipated. Will be interesting to see how the 0z model runs (and especially the 12 runs tomorrow) respond to this new information, if assimilated accurately enough. This image has been cross-posted to the Gulf Low Lounge and Hurricane Dorian Lounge, as well.


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 92L (SE of Bermuda) [Re: cieldumort]
      #100600 - Tue Sep 03 2019 10:41 AM


92L may be pulling things together even in the face of increasing shear.

The next names on the list in 2019 are: Fernand, Gabrielle and Humberto. This incipient cyclone is sure to bring Bermuda some blustery wet weather, either way.


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