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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 94L Lounge
      #100638 - Tue Sep 03 2019 11:23 PM


IR of Pre-Invest Wave 9-4-19-0245z

A robust Wave with associated surface low pressure about to enter the far eastern Atlantic has some appreciable early model support for development in the Tropical Atlantic late this week or weekend as it moves west to west-northwest from south of the Cabo Verde Islands. NHC gives it a 70% chance of becoming a TD or Named Storm within the next 5 days.

This feature is likely to be Invest tagged by Thursday, and although it is very far out in the ocean with plenty of time to track, indications are that it will take a more southerly route, which over time, would put the southwestern Atlantic in play if verified. As such, we are now starting a Lounge on what will likely get tagged Invest 94L soon.

More info to come. 9/5/19 Title updated as Wave/Low has been tagged 94L. NHC odds down a little from initial 70%, but this also suggests potential for slower development, and thus, potential for a more west to west-northwest track during the next several days (less likely to head out to sea in the near to medium term).

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 05 2019 09:47 PM)


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greywolf
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Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?) [Re: cieldumort]
      #100658 - Thu Sep 05 2019 09:24 PM

Yeah, they have been talking about this one over on Storm2K for the last several days now. The consensus seems to be that this could be a dangerous one, and one to closely watch for the Caribbean and possibly Florida. Conditions to the west of it seem to be favorable for further development (not much wind shear, for one thing). Some of the early track models I saw have it curving to the NW soon, but others have it headed straight to the W, or just slightly north of W (toward the Lesser Antilles).

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Keith B
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Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?) [Re: greywolf]
      #100659 - Fri Sep 06 2019 07:18 AM

Graywolf,

Can you post the sources? I did look at TT and GFS does have this going into the crib, pending future update, etc.

Thanks,

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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greywolf
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Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?) [Re: Keith B]
      #100660 - Fri Sep 06 2019 08:38 AM

This is the site I was looking at: http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/model...;run=2019090606

Looks like they all have it headed almost due west this morning.


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Keith B
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Posts: 38
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Tropical Wave 94L(?) [Re: greywolf]
      #100665 - Fri Sep 06 2019 08:25 PM

Thank you.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100666 - Sat Sep 07 2019 07:19 PM

The latest models are all over the place. No consensus even within 48 hrs it seems.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100667 - Sun Sep 08 2019 09:07 AM Attachment (113 downloads)

Here is the last frame of the 06Z GFS for 94L. Just NW of Puerto Rico.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100668 - Sun Sep 08 2019 11:05 AM

I would be more concerned with what will soon be coming off africa. A highly favorable velocity potential pattern for Atlantic hurricanes is forecast to unfold from late September into October per climate models something that has been well advertised for awhile now.

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