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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Humberto Lounge
      #100673 - Wed Sep 11 2019 09:25 PM

Invest 95L has a very strong chance of developing. NHC now up to 70% (and rising).
Quote:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred
miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and
Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive
for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida,
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely
produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the
Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.




PTC 9 became Humberto tonight, Sep 13th, and the title has been updated accordingly - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 16 2019 07:24 PM)


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hurricanetracker
Verified CFHC User


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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100675 - Wed Sep 11 2019 09:42 PM

What is the chance of this storm hitting Mobile or New Orleans and how strong could it get?

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OrlandoDan
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Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100677 - Thu Sep 12 2019 12:47 PM

I am having a tough time with comparing the GFS to the Euro. The Euro seems to have a decently strong depression going up the Atlantic Seabord while the GFS shows a much weaker system lollygagging into the gulf.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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doug
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100678 - Thu Sep 12 2019 01:15 PM

The aircraft data should clarify the situation by this evening and the 8 p.m. official advisory give us some guidance

--------------------
doug


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Genesis
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: hurricanetracker]
      #100679 - Thu Sep 12 2019 02:38 PM

Quote:

What is the chance of this storm hitting Mobile or New Orleans and how strong could it get?



IMHO the upper air pattern (look at WV) doesn't support much of a chance of it coming that way; it has moved more-or-less NW (it WAS moving WNW for a while) which argues strongly that it will miss the slot that will allow it into the Gulf. (See here -- look at the UV loop https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/) -- that feature is moving slowly westward, and that could admit this into the eastern Gulf as it backs away, but I wouldn't put much faith in anything coming much further west than the Big Bend area, and the dry air wrapped around it is also likely to inhibit strengthening of anything that comes westward as well.


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Keith B
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: Genesis]
      #100680 - Thu Sep 12 2019 04:36 PM

NHC will be starting PTC 9 at 1700.

" target="_blank">NHC TWITTER LINK PTC 9

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100681 - Thu Sep 12 2019 07:08 PM

TWC discussing right now my point above about the extreme differences in the GFS vs the Euro.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MissBecky
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100682 - Thu Sep 12 2019 07:32 PM

Levi’s latest video on Tropical Tidbits does a good job of explaining the differences between the two models, and when we can expect to know more.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #100683 - Fri Sep 13 2019 05:21 AM

9 seems to be starting to get organized this morning, a lot of convection and hot tower activity. Curious since the models that have it getting stronger keep it further offshore, but unfortunately impact the Bahmas more. The NHC hates doing advisories on undeveloped systems for this reason, but the euro seems to have a handle on the current state of 9 fairly well.

Lounge prediction (I.e. just opinion) It'll likely be another close call, but the center of 9 probably will stay east of Florida. Beyond that it may stall over the ocean and do a small loop before going out to sea.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100684 - Fri Sep 13 2019 06:21 AM

Regardless of the ultimate track of the yet to form center of circulation, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and 9's trough-elongated wind field are likely to exacerbate the system's coastal erosion impact along Florida's east coast- especially considering the Dorian-battered beach and the full moon Saturday.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100686 - Fri Sep 13 2019 12:31 PM

Quote:

Regardless of the ultimate track of the yet to form center of circulation, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and 9's trough-elongated wind field are likely to exacerbate the system's coastal erosion impact along Florida's east coast- especially considering the Dorian-battered beach and the full moon Saturday.




This gradient is pretty evident here in NW Broward has its been pretty windy for the last day or so. Normally summer in S FL has nothing but very light SE winds but we have been getting steady NE wind @ 10, with gusts to 20. Overall weekly pressure has been slowly moving down too.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100687 - Fri Sep 13 2019 04:44 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible in heavier showers and a few storms, mainly
along the coast as the marine sourced activity moves ashore. Envelope of winds directly ascd with the
cyclone circulation remain offshore the local ATLC coast at this time, and stronger winds ascd with squalls and onshore moving showers will remain gusty at times. Expect coastal effects in the form of beach erosion, locally heavy rain, rough surf/hazardous open water marine conditions to be the main issues.

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend. Awaiting forecast update at 5 PM for more specific information.

HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP AROUND FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MELBOURNE FAIR 88 75 65 NE21G31 29.98F
FORT PIERCE FAIR 85 74 69 NE14G24 29.96F
ORLANDO INTL PTSUNNY 86 72 62 NE20G30 30.00F
DAYTONA BEACH PTSUNNY 87 75 67 NE22 30.04F
VERO BEACH FAIR 88 75 65 NE21G30 29.97F
STUART MOSUNNY 84 73 70 E22G32 29.96F
WEST PALM BCH PTSUNNY 88 75 65 NE25G32 29.93F
MIAMI CLOUDY 87 75 67 NE17G25 29.90S
KEY WEST FAIR 86 76 71 E12G20 29.88F

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100689 - Sat Sep 14 2019 08:48 AM

Quote:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible in heavier showers and a few storms, mainly
along the coast as the marine sourced activity moves ashore. Envelope of winds directly ascd with the
cyclone circulation remain offshore the local ATLC coast at this time, and stronger winds ascd with squalls and onshore moving showers will remain gusty at times. Expect coastal effects in the form of beach erosion, locally heavy rain, rough surf/hazardous open water marine conditions to be the main issues.





GFS is tracking where it should be finally with the UK still following basically the same. Essentially the possibility of intensification in warm waters and its slow enough speed however Florida doesn't look to be getting more than t-storm bands.

It's sitting at 1004 mb which means that the low isn't that low. Normal is about 1013 so even though it has organized into a storm, it's not firing deep hot towers of thunderstorms with cold heads to really cause convection/intensification.

My personal forecast is this little beastie is mostly a fish spinner other than going at Bermuda and possibly being a hurricane when it's there. It's being forced into colder water, it doesn't have stronger weather to even fight back against a little high so the Sea Lions...Tiger Fish and... and bears (oh my) will get a little topsy turvy to do some tricks in but not much more.

Obviously, something to be avoided if you're a ship-based asset and paying attention to by Bermuda because NHC has it almost dead to rights in its cone. I don't see it having the strength to make it very dangerous to Bermuda though unless there is more in the SST's than NOAA is able to report. The forward N N/E speed will have sped up considerably so even if it hits Bermuda it'll be a short lived event.


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 385
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100690 - Sat Sep 14 2019 01:44 PM

A decent blob of convection is being picked up on Melbourne,FL radar

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100691 - Sat Sep 14 2019 03:02 PM

Quote:

A decent blob of convection is being picked up on Melbourne,FL radar




Almost an eye at the 1730UTC visible but its weak and hidden by upper level clouds still. I don't think it's time yet for intensification to a hurricane. Pressure still high, wind creeping up but still just a TS.

It's good to see the NHC shift a bit north on Bermuda.

UPDATE

Here comes the intensification. Pressure dropping, winds are 65 and lets be honest, they're probably hitting 70 fairly regularly. Interesting that the NHC track has shifted the two day south a bit yet shifted the abrupt Northward track fairly significantly. Unfortunately it changes nothing for Bermuda as the net result has still kept it dead middle of the track.

Let's hope the strengthening is limited and it stays in the H1 to strong H1 category. Not much in it's way other than fairly warm water now.

Edited by Psyber (Sun Sep 15 2019 02:34 PM)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100694 - Sun Sep 15 2019 03:45 PM

There wasn't a 2pm advisory, but Humberto is now a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 100 mph:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Humberto is centered near 28.9N 77.9W at 15/1500 UTC, or 165 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral Florida, moving NNW at 6 kt.Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extends outward from the center 100 nm NW quad, from 90 nm NE quad, 80 nm SE quad. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of Florida through Wednesday.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100695 - Sun Sep 15 2019 10:15 PM

That seemed a bit too early, although the 11PM should bump it up to a hurricane. There's been a left hook in some of the models but the storm has taken an easterly jog, it *could* be a pretty close call for Bermuda.

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