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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Karen Lounge
      #100721 - Fri Sep 20 2019 06:16 PM



A stout tropical wave located east of the Windward Islands is moving quickly west towards the Caribbean and has a modest window to develop into a Tropical Cyclone before potentially running into unfavorable upper-level winds later next week. NHC odds for development are up to 40% within 5 days, and this could easily be on the rise over the weekend.

This wave has been tagged, Invest 99L, and we are now starting a lounge on it.

Edited by MikeC (Sun Sep 22 2019 11:27 AM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 319
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100724 - Sun Sep 22 2019 08:15 AM

Guess we have TS Karen now. Longer range models are starting to show high pressure building back in, behind Jerry, ahead of her with a sharp turn to the west/sw mid week possibly ending up in the Gulf the following week. Time to watch.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #100726 - Sun Sep 22 2019 11:51 AM

Karen's going to struggle over the next few days with the shear, I know about the hard left many of the models show, but a lot depends on how strong it gets.

6z GFS shows it staying weak the entire run (Open wave toward the end) but does move the energy over S. Florida. 12Z also weakens it to almost nothing.

0z Euro is much stronger than the GFS but moves it SW over Cuba. This run is a little more concerning if it shifts back to the right more in the long range.

0z UKMET just stalls it out at the end of the run and hints west.

0z CMC ends the run NE of the northern Bahamas.

12Z Icon just stalls it for a very long time.


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 120
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100730 - Mon Sep 23 2019 09:49 AM

Quote:

Karen's going to struggle over the next few days with the shear, I know about the hard left many of the models show, but a lot depends on how strong it gets.

6z GFS shows it staying weak the entire run (Open wave toward the end) but does move the energy over S. Florida. 12Z also weakens it to almost nothing.

0z Euro is much stronger than the GFS but moves it SW over Cuba. This run is a little more concerning if it shifts back to the right more in the long range.

0z UKMET just stalls it out at the end of the run and hints west.

0z CMC ends the run NE of the northern Bahamas.

12Z Icon just stalls it for a very long time.



I believe the GFS is more likely given Karen's current disorganization and possible downgrade to depression today due to ongoing strong shear preventing any deep convection from co-locating with the center of circulation. Still, if the circulation persists it will eventually find much more favorable conditions north of Puerto Rico. If shear does not kill a weakened Karen, the NHC day 4/5 forecast for a strengthening system over the SW Atlantic may pan out.

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Robert
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Karen Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100732 - Tue Sep 24 2019 01:13 PM Attachment (94 downloads)

IR

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Karen Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100733 - Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM

The 12Z Euro has a big slowdown at the end of the run that it didn't have yesterday, this lowers that chance of a US impact if that holds. It'll be tough to break climatology here and not stay out to sea. But it's still worth watching to see how big a loop back it gets. I think the 5 day is pretty good though. Right now I don't think Karen will directly impact Florida with a landfall, but we'll see how it goes.

Things to watch for in the trends... before this weekend it's just flat out guessing. Do the models keep trending to the right (like they have been in the long term... 7+ days... not so much in the shorter term as the west loop seems likely then.) One run does not make a trend, although persistence is still the key in a lot of these models. (and right now beyond 6-7 days they aren't persistent)



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Karen Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100739 - Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM

Now that Karen is north of the Caribbean the next key phase to watch out for is the forecasted move back to the west after a loop. How long the system stalls and how fast it begins moving west are part of this, as is how strong the system is or is not at the time. The GFS and Euro are showing it weak, while a lot of the other intensity models are stronger, looks like the NHC forecast splits the difference. The NHC's been following the TVCN a lot lately, which has trended faster/further west on each run in the past day or so. Still doubtful it'll maintain it all the way toward the mainland, but it does mean the Bahamas will want to watch it closely once the loop and move west starts to happen.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Karen Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100740 - Wed Sep 25 2019 10:46 AM

Jerry should have been a bit stronger and north east of bermuda by now, and its not.. I'm not sure what this might do for karen, i figured jerry would be further east, and if not, i think it would push Karen further east underneath..
On the other spectrum, it may create a stronger ridge, directly between and Karen stalls sooner and a bit west of forcast, bad for bahamas.
Some models moving Karen out to sea, have a lowering of heights and a gyre in the northwestern Caribbean start early october.
Models start off by shooting systems every which way out of there and then it coalesces into a storm.
Ill have to check back tomorrow, today will do nothing but rack the brain.

Edited by Robert (Wed Sep 25 2019 10:55 AM)


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Karen Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100745 - Thu Sep 26 2019 10:30 AM

Karen looking surprisingly good this morning, though still not stacked. The 11 am advisory should be an interesting read.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Karen Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #100746 - Thu Sep 26 2019 12:37 PM

Two low level centers, models keep tracking the east one, she does look good, and in area that should be watched.
I think she will survive to find some better conditions under a building ridge.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Karen Lounge [Re: MissBecky]
      #100747 - Thu Sep 26 2019 03:30 PM Attachment (71 downloads)

IR 10:40am

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